Dry May is certain

[SouthFloridawx]

[CHRISTY]

the GFS is showing some crazy stuff on those maps it shows something developing in the gulf and something EAST of the islands !
Its only a matter of time now....

[SouthFloridawx]

wow the GFS is showing some crazy stuff on those maps it shows something developing in the gulf and something EAST of the islands !
Its only a matter of time now....

Could be a late season stalled out cold front or a few things. I was only trying to point out that hopefully more rain is in the forecast past 9 days and I hope we won't be in a drought by the end of the month.

[MiamiensisWx]

SouthFloridawx, those graphics really illustrate the pattern change I have been mentioning, with stronger ridging taking place in the eastern and central Atlantic near the Azores while troughiness/weaker ridging comes in place in the western Atlantic, with Great Plains ridging (resulting in eastern U.S. coastal troughiness) and negative NAO Greenland/Canada blocking ridging. Look how troughiness is creating a highway for low pressure systems and late-season fronts along the eastern U.S. coast.

I really think the thread title should be edited. We are not sure whether we will have a dry May in the end or not. We just have to watch the long-term general pattern trends and what that could mean, including for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[CHRISTY]

SouthFloridawx, those graphics really illustrate the pattern change I have been mentioning, with stronger ridging taking place in the eastern and central Atlantic near the Azores while troughiness/weaker ridging comes in place in the western Atlantic, with Great Plains ridging (resulting in eastern U.S. coastal troughiness) and negative NAO Greenland/Canada blocking ridging. Look how troughiness is creating a highway for low pressure systems and late-season fronts along the eastern U.S. coast.

I really think the thread title should be edited. We are not sure whether we will have a dry May in the end or not. We just have to watch the long-term general pattern trends and what that could mean, including for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

we have not had many late season fronts come down here in the southeast this year.and actually we had fronts come down into southernflorida around this time also in 2005,so i think it doesnt mean much.its a wait and see situation.

[MiamiensisWx]

we have not had many fronts down here in the southeast this year.and actually we had fronts come down into southernflorida around this time also in 2005,so i think it doesnt mean much.

True on the fronts; however, I am just mentioning the current pattern. We just have to wait, watch, and watch for signs that may tell whether it has a better chance to persist or not. It is still too early.

[CHRISTY]

we have not had many fronts down here in the southeast this year.and actually we had fronts come down into southernflorida around this time also in 2005,so i think it doesnt mean much.

True on the fronts; however, I am just mentioning the current pattern. We just have to wait, watch, and watch for signs that may tell whether it has a better chance to persist or not. It is still too early.

we'll see what happen's in the coming months....

[Scorpion]

we have not had many fronts down here in the southeast this year.and actually we had fronts come down into southernflorida around this time also in 2005,so i think it doesnt mean much.

True on the fronts; however, I am just mentioning the current pattern. We just have to wait, watch, and watch for signs that may tell whether it has a better chance to persist or not. It is still too early.

This discussion is getting kind of redundant. 2005 had fronts go far down deep into May. This year has not had hardly any fronts since late March. I think we should refrain from obsessing over the location of the Bermuda/Azores High, as it does not matter.

[SouthFloridawx]

we have not had many fronts down here in the southeast this year.and actually we had fronts come down into southernflorida around this time also in 2005,so i think it doesnt mean much.

True on the fronts; however, I am just mentioning the current pattern. We just have to wait, watch, and watch for signs that may tell whether it has a better chance to persist or not. It is still too early.

This discussion is getting kind of redundant.

Then don't read it.

[Scorpion]

Then don't read it.

It's a little hard when 90% of the discussion is obsessed over this.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think we should refrain from obsessing over the location of the Bermuda/Azores High, as it does not matter.

It will in the heart of the season. Also, we are just discussing patterns and observing them. I never said I expected or thought this will last into the heart of the season.

[SouthFloridawx]

Then don't read it.

It's a little hard when 90% of the discussion is obsessed over this.

There's always one guy that's gotta be negative.

[Scorpion]

I think we should refrain from obsessing over the location of the Bermuda/Azores High, as it does not matter.

It will in the heart of the season. Also, we are just discussing patterns and observing them. I never said I expected or thought this will last into the heart of the season.

Not even in the heart of the season. 2004 is a great example. Exceptional trough brought Charley to Florida, then 3 weeks later strong ridging brought Frances.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's a little hard when 90% of the discussion is obsessed over this.

Read the thread title. We are just making this thread useful by discussing things. That's what Storm2K is for. Also, you have the freedom to not look at this thread if you don't like it or the discussion. That's fine.

[CHRISTY]

Guys my thinking is Bermuda highor no no bermuda high i think season will be very active and all areas along the eastcoast will be under the gun.and of course lets not forget the gulf with those warm SST'S and the carribean.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think we should refrain from obsessing over the location of the Bermuda/Azores High, as it does not matter.

It will in the heart of the season. Also, we are just discussing patterns and observing them. I never said I expected or thought this will last into the heart of the season.

Not even in the heart of the season. 2004 is a great example. Exceptional trough brought Charley to Florida, then 3 weeks later strong ridging brought Frances.

Then only this thread can be used to show current conditions, trends and discussions of the ridging or troughing in the atlantic basin or in the western north hemisphere. There is no need for negative comments here.

[MiamiensisWx]

Not even in the heart of the season. 2004 is a great example. Exceptional trough brought Charley to Florida, then 3 weeks later strong ridging brought Frances.

Steering patterns - both ridging, troughiness, low levels, and storm/steering currents/ridge position - all make a big difference in a landfall point, jog, or path. If it and all these factors didn't make a big difference, then Charley wouldn't have turned into Florida, which is VERY significant. ALL years have significant factors and patterns playing out to watch.

[Scorpion]

In March the discussion was Bermuda High, run for your lives. Now it seems people are dismissing this season as an East Coast season because the Azores High predominates.

[CHRISTY]

I think we should refrain from obsessing over the location of the Bermuda/Azores High, as it does not matter.

It will in the heart of the season. Also, we are just discussing patterns and observing them. I never said I expected or thought this will last into the heart of the season.

Not even in the heart of the season. 2004 is a great example. Exceptional trough brought Charley to Florida, then 3 weeks later strong ridging brought Frances.

Then only this thread can be used to show current conditions, trends and discussions of the ridging or troughing in the atlantic basin or in the western north hemisphere. There is no need for negative comments here.

we always discuss ridgeing on this thread and current conditions...and true on the negative comments!

[MiamiensisWx]

In March the discussion was Bermuda High, run for your lives. Now it seems people are dismissing this season as an East Coast season because the Azores High predominates.

That was because some of the factors, setups, and patterns were different earlier (such as the effects of the NAO). Also, I never said we will have an eastern U.S. coast year north of Florida. I was saying that if this pattern holds, it might turn out so for storms approaching from the east and that this might be enhanced by an active Cape Verde season with this pattern. Also, even with this pattern, no one - not even Florida - is under the gun. Every year, EVERYONE is under the gun. Also, if this pattern holds, Florida could very well be very vulnerable from the southwest storms from the Caribbean later in the year (October/November). You need to look at my posts more carefully.