Greenland/Canada high and hurricane season

[MiamiensisWx]

You were harping on a strong Bermuda High in March. Point is, things will continue to change. The troughiness is not abnormal at all. There is not supposed to be an established Bermuda High this time of the year.

I think we should just watch the pattern(s) as they unfold. It is still too early to say on the Atlantic ridging intensity, position, and other factors one way or another.

[CHRISTY]

honestly i requested the day of at my job on may22 NOAA's update cause i think its gonna be very interesting to see what comes out.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm personally quite concerned about hurricanes approaching the East Coast, and then getting trapped by the Greenland Ridge. Unable to go out to Sea, they could be driven up the Coast.

Another VERY worrying possibility is that some could phase with 'Nor'Easter' (of which there continues to be many, even into Spring) and cause lots of trouble; either inland, or just offshore (a la Grace/Halloween storm in 1991).

[terstorm1012]

I'm personally quite concerned about hurricanes approaching the East Coast, and then getting trapped by the Greenland Ridge. Unable to go out to Sea, they could be driven up the Coast.

Another VERY worrying possibility is that some could phase with 'Nor'Easter' (of which there continues to be many, even into Spring) and cause lots of trouble; either inland, or just offshore (a la Grace/Halloween storm in 1991).

I have the same concerns. And these spring Nor'easters are weird man...I think this is the third or fourth storm to come off and sit and spin. That being said, I don't know if this pattern will persist into summer so it's not a MAJOR concern of mine right now. Now if we have a pattern like this in August and September, well, I'd be doublechecking my hurricane supplies and plans if I lived along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast Seaboard.

What is really buggin me about the current pattern is the way the block has PA wedged in this perpetual zone of dryness. It's a gorgeous day here today, but I see just a hundred miles or so away it's cloudy and rainy.

[MiamiensisWx]

Isn't this type of pattern prevelant in some La Nina and neutral/coolish years?

[MiamiensisWx]

Can someone answer my question? Thanks.

[CHRISTY]

Can someone answer my question? Thanks.

my friend its to early...lets just wait!

[MiamiensisWx]

CHRISTY, this is my question...

Isn't this type of pattern prevelant in some La Nina and neutral/coolish years?

Can you or someone else try to answer this? Thanks!

[george_r_1961]

CV i agree that the type of pattern that is settiing up now could cause some trouble for the NC Outer Banks ( remember Hatteras sticks out there like a sore thumb) along with extreme SE VA (Georgeland) as well as New England and the Maritime Provinces. It depends on the strength and position of the Bermuda High as well as the presence or or absence of a blocking ridge over the far northern atlantic. And all these factors are difficult to predict far in advance and can change quickly.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, george_r_1961. I'm watching the patterns as they gradually unfold.

I'm still waiting for an answer to my question...

Isn't this type of pattern prevelant in some La Nina and neutral/coolish years?

Sorry if I sound snide and impatient, but I'm curious.

[terstorm1012]

CVW...this pattern reminds me of 2003 to an extent.


(google is your friend )

[benny]

CV i agree that the type of pattern that is settiing up now could cause some trouble for the NC Outer Banks ( remember Hatteras sticks out there like a sore thumb) along with extreme SE VA (Georgeland) as well as New England and the Maritime Provinces. It depends on the strength and position of the Bermuda High as well as the presence or or absence of a blocking ridge over the far northern atlantic. And all these factors are difficult to predict far in advance and can change quickly.

In a climate sense.. what is going on now has little relevance to later in the season. There might be some associations... more ridging here, more troughing there... but these links are tenuous at best and few have been able to hold strong against scientific rigor. All that I am sure of is that you need to assess things on a climate scale.. not any of this one or two week stuff... 30 days or longer. If there is more ridging over the NE USA and it stays that way for two months... is there is a lagged relationship with the Bermuda high?

However if you just want to speculate until the cows come home.. go for it I say it does remind me of 2003 a little and 1996... if I had to choose an analog season or two.

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks for your insight benny.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, benny. I am just observing the current pattern and am seeing how long it may persist. It is still too early to tell, but I am observing it over time.

[SouthFloridawx]

Below normal Temps in the 8-14 day outlook. Could this be caused by more of a ridging effect along the east coast or High pressure over canada/greenland? Or both?

EDIT: I meant to ask if it was troughing along the east coast?

[CHRISTY]

In my opinion the reason we have been dry here in the southeast is due to strong ridgeing thats in place.we'll see what happens later on.

[MiamiensisWx]

Below normal Temps in the 8-14 day outlook. Could this be caused by more of a ridging effect along the east coast or High pressure over canada/greenland? Or both?

EDIT: I meant to ask if it was troughing along the east coast?

That is caused by the negative NAO (Greenland/Canada ridging) and troughiness along the eastern U.S. coast. More Atlantic ridging would often result in more warmer or above-average temperatures, depending on the setup.