EPAC Low

clfenwi · #41 Postby **clfenwi** » Wed May 10, 2006 1:09 am

Aquawind wrote:The season officially starts in less than a week May 15th. I would think we have had earlier systems..

Earliest system in the books has a first entry of 18Z May 12 . There's only one other in the books that formed before the 15th.

Aquawind · #42 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed May 10, 2006 1:10 am

Gotcha I just posted it..

clfenwi · #43 Postby **clfenwi** » Wed May 10, 2006 1:23 am

Aquawind wrote::wink: Gotcha I just posted it..

Yeah, you managed to figure it out while I was taking my sweet old time trying to figure out something with regards to the other pre-May 15 system (the unnamed tropical storm from '96). Specifically, whether it was completely unnoticed at the time, or if it was a tropical depression that was upgraded post-season. It appears that the latter was the case.

clfenwi · #44 Postby **clfenwi** » Wed May 10, 2006 1:33 am

Interesting tidbit from yesterday afternoon's TWD

UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N78W TO SE MEXICO WITH PLENTY OF SLY WINDS OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE PROVIDED BY RIDGE. WLY WINDS ARE AT THE SURFACE S OF MEXICO.. INDICATIVE OF AN ACTIVE CONVECTION PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO). MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE EPAC WATERS WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS THE TYPE OF UPPER/LOWER-LEVEL CONFIGURATION THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL GENESIS IN A BROAD SENSE.. BUT IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO EARLY IN THE SEASONAL CYCLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES AS ANY WAVES ARE ILL-DEFINED AT BEST.

#45 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed May 10, 2006 1:40 am

Thanks for the disco clfenwi.

HurricaneHunter914 · #46 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed May 10, 2006 6:07 am

I guess the NHC is hoping no storms form so they get a longer break than last year.

HurricaneHunter914 · #47 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed May 10, 2006 6:35 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

It looks really good now kinda organized aswell.

NONAME · #48 Postby **NONAME** » Wed May 10, 2006 1:03 pm

It looks like it has a little bit of circlation.

#49 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed May 10, 2006 2:26 pm

I think we may see an invest on this in 48 hours or so.

#50 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed May 10, 2006 3:01 pm

convection starting to re-fire

CHRISTY · #51 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 10, 2006 4:29 pm

CHRISTY · #52 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 10, 2006 4:32 pm

Here's the lastest loop!

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/regions.asp?partner=accuweather&site=ATL&region=CAM&type=ei&anim=LOOP&large=1

#53 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 10, 2006 4:36 pm

it's always the EPAC!!!

I bet it will be months before we get any invest in the Caribbean and/or GOM - I am calling for August this year BUT then after that it will be very active through October :eek:

#54 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 10, 2006 4:37 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/PACFUL_18Z.gif

There's a low pressure but it's still embedded with the ITZC. It needs to separate from the ITZC for something to occur. Let see what happens.

NONAME · #55 Postby **NONAME** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:18 pm

Deleted

CHRISTY · #56 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:21 pm

NONAME wrote:Considering that this is now in the pacific and not the atlantic i made a new thread about it i dont know how to attack it so just look it say 1009 Low in the Eastern pacific

no need for a new thread just change the name of it.

#57 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:22 pm

CHRISTY wrote:
NONAME wrote:Considering that this is now in the pacific and not the atlantic i made a new thread about it i dont know how to attack it so just look it say 1009 Low in the Eastern pacific
no need for a new thread just change the name of it.

Yeah boca .. could we get you to change the name of the thread.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #58 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:32 pm

NONAME wrote:From the 2205 UTC Dis
LOWER LEVELS..
A LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 32N137W TO 18N110W DOMINATES THE
REGION. A 1008 MB LOW CENTER ASSOCOATED WITH THE ITCZ IS NEAR
10N88W DRIFTING W AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 95W. A WEAK TROUGH IS NEAR
113W S OF 13N ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

Look like the first sign of tropical devlopment and they are in a MJO period so i would say it has a chance to devlop not much model support right now.

CHRISTY · #59 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:46 pm

IR loop...convection flareing up.

Coredesat · #60 Postby **Coredesat** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:49 pm

It looks like there's a front headed right for it.

EPAC Low

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