Not sure if this means anything, but I was reading an article about the lack of rain in Central Florida and there was something that was in there about La-Nina. Not sure if this is accurate information or not and what this might mean for the upcoming season. Hopefully some of the pros will chime in.
Quote from the local paper: "This time of year, sea breezes usually cause wetter days. La Nina -- a climate pattern of cooler Pacific water that typically suppresses rain in Florida -- fizzled out a few weeks ago, allowing the normal rainy season to arrive in late May."
La Nina dissipating?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
La Nina dissipating?
0 likes
-
Aquawind
- Category 5
- Posts: 6714
- Age: 62
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
- Location: Salisbury, NC
- Contact:
I would agree to fizzling..but not fizzled yet.. I am hoping for that rainy season to come on time.
Latest from the Austrailians..
Weekly Tropical Climate Note
at 1314 CST Tuesday 9 May 2006
El Nino-Southern Oscillation Update
The 30-day SOI has mostly been positive since September 2005, with a few previous excursions above the standard deviation mark of +10. Late March saw the development of a sustained rise, reaching +20 in mid-April. By 6 May it had fallen to +7, with contributing pressure anomalies of -1.3 hPa at Darwin, and -0.5 at Tahiti. The official monthly SOI for April was +15, and its 5-month running mean centred on January was +6.
The east Pacific near-equatorial sea surface temperature [SST] cool tongue is cooler than normal in the far east, with larger [but weakening] cool anomalies in the sub-surface. In recent months the easterly trade winds over the near-equatorial western Pacific have mostly been stronger than average, while westerly wind anomalies have been observed in the tropical east Indian Ocean. Australian and Indonesian longitudes have thus often been the broad focus of tropical convection. During February these signals weakened, with the north Australian monsoon being heavily suppressed. During late March and April though, the Maritime Continent again became the primary focus of convection, and low-level wind anomalies converged into the region again. Accordingly, most indicators suggest an enhanced Walker Circulation centred over the Maritime Continent region in recent months. As a result some indicators suggest the phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation extends toward weak La Nina magnitude, though others remain within what would typically be described as the neutral range.
See http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ for the Bureau's "ENSO Wrap-Up", including links to a compilation of ENSO model predictions. Note that the southern hemisphere autumn period is known as the predictability barrier. Shifts in ENSO state sometimes occur during this period and model predictions spanning it often have low skill.
Intra-Seasonal Patterns
Monsoon onset occurred over most of northern Australia around mid-January, just ahead of an active MJO phase. By the end of the month convective activity eased and the monsoon trough retreated north of the Australian continent. The focus of tropical cloudiness progressed eastward, such that the South Pacific Convergence Zone became the active area for a week or so. The monsoon, and tropical weather generally, was heavily suppressed over north Australia throughout February. Late February saw development of a renewed active phase of the MJO in the Indian Ocean, and by early March a reinvigorated monsoon trough moved southward over the Australian continent. The next two active phases of the MJO over central RSMC / north Australian longitudes occurred in relatively quick succession, around late March [extending into early April], then another in late April. None of the events that occurred after February had much influence over the western to central Pacific [see http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc /clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR_modes/h.6.MJO.EQ.html and http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaf ... proom/RMM/ ]. The events in March and April led to extensive late wet season rains to much of northern Australia, and a late cyclone on the north coast. Tropical Cyclone Monica was long-lived and eventually crossed the north Australian coast late April as an intense system.
If the recent short periodicity of the MJO were to persist, the next active phase may be seen developing in the equatorial/north Indian Ocean as early as mid-May, though there are no imminent signs at this stage.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml
Latest USA comments May 8th
Summary on page 29..
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Latest from the Austrailians..
Weekly Tropical Climate Note
at 1314 CST Tuesday 9 May 2006
El Nino-Southern Oscillation Update
The 30-day SOI has mostly been positive since September 2005, with a few previous excursions above the standard deviation mark of +10. Late March saw the development of a sustained rise, reaching +20 in mid-April. By 6 May it had fallen to +7, with contributing pressure anomalies of -1.3 hPa at Darwin, and -0.5 at Tahiti. The official monthly SOI for April was +15, and its 5-month running mean centred on January was +6.
The east Pacific near-equatorial sea surface temperature [SST] cool tongue is cooler than normal in the far east, with larger [but weakening] cool anomalies in the sub-surface. In recent months the easterly trade winds over the near-equatorial western Pacific have mostly been stronger than average, while westerly wind anomalies have been observed in the tropical east Indian Ocean. Australian and Indonesian longitudes have thus often been the broad focus of tropical convection. During February these signals weakened, with the north Australian monsoon being heavily suppressed. During late March and April though, the Maritime Continent again became the primary focus of convection, and low-level wind anomalies converged into the region again. Accordingly, most indicators suggest an enhanced Walker Circulation centred over the Maritime Continent region in recent months. As a result some indicators suggest the phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation extends toward weak La Nina magnitude, though others remain within what would typically be described as the neutral range.
See http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ for the Bureau's "ENSO Wrap-Up", including links to a compilation of ENSO model predictions. Note that the southern hemisphere autumn period is known as the predictability barrier. Shifts in ENSO state sometimes occur during this period and model predictions spanning it often have low skill.
Intra-Seasonal Patterns
Monsoon onset occurred over most of northern Australia around mid-January, just ahead of an active MJO phase. By the end of the month convective activity eased and the monsoon trough retreated north of the Australian continent. The focus of tropical cloudiness progressed eastward, such that the South Pacific Convergence Zone became the active area for a week or so. The monsoon, and tropical weather generally, was heavily suppressed over north Australia throughout February. Late February saw development of a renewed active phase of the MJO in the Indian Ocean, and by early March a reinvigorated monsoon trough moved southward over the Australian continent. The next two active phases of the MJO over central RSMC / north Australian longitudes occurred in relatively quick succession, around late March [extending into early April], then another in late April. None of the events that occurred after February had much influence over the western to central Pacific [see http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc /clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR_modes/h.6.MJO.EQ.html and http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaf ... proom/RMM/ ]. The events in March and April led to extensive late wet season rains to much of northern Australia, and a late cyclone on the north coast. Tropical Cyclone Monica was long-lived and eventually crossed the north Australian coast late April as an intense system.
If the recent short periodicity of the MJO were to persist, the next active phase may be seen developing in the equatorial/north Indian Ocean as early as mid-May, though there are no imminent signs at this stage.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml
Latest USA comments May 8th
Summary on page 29..
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
0 likes
-
HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
-
Windtalker1
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 523
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:00 am
- Location: Mesa, Arizona
-
HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
I live in a house on a canal in Central Florida that I bought in 1990. Less than 1 year after I moved in, I had a dock built with the platform about 8 inches above the water. In the next couple of years, water covered the dock. Though the water has gone up and down since then ---today for the first time in years the platform is above water. Talk about dry!!!
0 likes
-
Brandon007
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 84
- Joined: Sat Mar 04, 2006 2:34 pm
- Location: Meridian, MS
speaking of rain we have been getting a soaking yesterday evening and all day today we have gotten 5+ inches of rain 
check it out http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0
check it out http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0
0 likes
-
Jim Cantore
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy and 68 guests