Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[CHRISTY]

is it TS chanchu or TS caloy?

CHANCHU! WHAT A NAME...

[senorpepr]

jtwc considerably downplayed Mala's intensity for a good while along with a number of other storms in the past...it goes both ways. the ECMWF is bombing this storm in the South China Sea and the nogaps isn't far off.

While the JTWC has downplayed intensities before, I said they are normally too high on wind speeds. Furthermore, it appears that both solutions from the aforementioned models are downplaying the affects from land.

However, my biggest point is... it's rather silly to say something has a good probability of becoming a super typhoon when, A) the current intensity is barely a tropical storm and B) no forecast (from JMA, PAGASA, or JTWC) has this reaching anything higher than a category one typhoon.

[senorpepr]

what is a CI#?

Current Intensity Dvorak Number

is it TS chanchu or TS caloy?

Officially from JTWC, the name is Chanchu. PAGASA and the Filipino media is calling it Caloy. PAGASA issues names for any tropical system within their area of responsibility... even if it's a tropical depression. Therefore, the proper name to use is Chanchu, although Caloy isn't wrong.

CHANCHU! WHAT A NAME...

It's Chinese for "pearl."

[HurricaneHunter914]

Its just a name like yours and some other people have the name CHANCHU. Nothing funny about it.

[James]

I quite like the sound of the name, very poetic. Looks like there is another large convective burst going on at the moment.

[senorpepr]

Its just a name like yours and some other people have the name CHANCHU. Nothing funny about it.

Well... WPAC names aren't names like Christy or Bob. WPAC names are actually words. In this case, Chanchu means pearl. Not the name Pearl, but the jemstone.

Matter of fact, the next name to be used in the WPAC basin is Jelawat. It's a Malaysian word for Sultan fish -- a popular fresh-water carp found in rivers.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yeah, but even if it sounds funny it isn't anything to laugh at, you know I am from the Philippines and it kinda gets me mad.

[senorpepr]

Yeah, but even if it sounds funny it isn't anything to laugh at, you know I am from the Philippines and it kinda gets me mad.

I completely agree. It's like laughing at some random English word. It's not appropriate and can be hurtful. We dealt with this last year with a certain Chinese word that appeared on the name list.

[CHRISTY]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 996.8mb/ 49.0kt

[senorpepr]

PAGASA forecast...

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hope it turns away from the Philippines, but it keeps on heading towards it. I currently have a Grandpa who lives in the Philippines and I hope he is safe.

[cycloneye]

senorpepr (Mike) now I am confused with the names.Which name is the one Caloy or Chanchu to then post it at the title?

[CHRISTY]

A Big burst of convection on this lastest IR image.

[senorpepr]

senorpepr (Mike) now I am confused with the names.Which name is the one Caloy or Chanchu to then post it at the title?

Officially from JTWC, the name is Chanchu. PAGASA (Philippines Met) and the Filipino media are calling it Caloy. PAGASA issues names for any tropical system within their area of responsibility... even if it's a tropical depression. Therefore, the proper name to use is Chanchu, although Caloy isn't wrong.

[cycloneye]

Ok Mike,Chanchu is at the title of thread.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 9.2N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 10.0N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 10.9N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 11.8N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.4N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.5N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.3N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 131.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST
OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.




45 KNOTS.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Chanchu in my opinion will probably be a Cat-2 once it reaches the Philippines.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[senorpepr]

The latest JTWC forecast has Chanchu striking the Eastern Samar province in the Eastern Visayas. This is just north of Leyte where a few months ago, they experienced a deadly mudslide.

After passing through the Eastern Visayas, Bicol and Calabarzon should see the affects of Chanchu as well as the southern Luzon region.

The forecast also places the track 45mi SW of Manila (the country's second-most populous city with 1.5 million people and is the capital of the Philippines) and about 50mi SW of Quezon City (the country's most populous city with 2.2 million people and is the former capital of the Philippines).

[wxmann_91]

Oh... sorry. I just meant that it is a possibility, since I thought it might have some room between the area to it's east and the Philippines. I didn't mean for it to sound Greatone-like, and I know it is highly unlikely. However, some rapid strengthening - though very likely not to a super typhoon - I think is quite possible. Sorry for sounding like Greatone... I just said it wrong. Sorry...

Actually, I agree with you CVW, this had potential, but the anticyclone moved away and it's moving toward land now.

[HURAKAN]

SEEMS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED!!!