SKETCHES OF A CATASTROPHE....PLEASE READ.

[zlaxier]

To add insult to injury, the track takes the storm right over Lake O, the dike would most likely fail in multiple sections, destroying South Florida's water supply and the everglades.

[Derek Ortt]

regions within that band would, but the entire area would not, due to the streaky nature

Even within the eye wall of a cat 3 or 4, it is a total crapshoot as to whether or not you get major hurricane winds, which is why NHC in their new probability products is NOT issuing a 100KT wind probability, because those winds occur within narrow streaks

Remember, the maximum winds are the maximum winds ANYWHERE, including within the streaks

[milankovitch]

- zlaxier

A large major hurricane like that is something I've been afraid may hit south Florida since Floyd. That would without a doubt cause over 100 billion in damage.

[zlaxier]

Were there areas in that big band in Hurricane Andrew that didn't get major hurricane winds? It seems to me the entire area south of Kendall Drive got whacked with at least Cat 3.

[Derek Ortt]

areas not in the streaks had winds MUCH less than those inside of the streaks (can be as much as 60 m.p.h. less)

[kometes]

To add insult to injury, the track takes the storm right over Lake O, the dike would most likely fail in multiple sections, destroying South Florida's water supply and the everglades.

South Florida's water supply comes from the Biscayne Aquifer which is not directly related to water levels in Lake O. The failure of the dikes certainly wouldn't cause water supply problems in the short term. However, it's unclear what happens if the general north-to-south flow of water in the Everglades is disrupted over an extended period, like say, while the lake was refilling.

[Jim Cantore]

Minus lake O, surge isnt a real threat compared to wind in this area, not a surge prone area compared to say Tampa.

Run this storm into there and see what happens

[richtrav]

This idea about streaks is interesting, reminds me of that old graphic done for Hurricane Celia in 1970

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/docs/resear ... lia-20.jpg

sorta the same?

[Derek Ortt]

yep

thats the standard damage pattern of a major hurricane. Dr Fujita, while known for his tornado work, really documented this damage pattern for hurricanes very nicely, especially in Hurricane Andrew

[wxmann_91]

I recall Josh Wurman and his DOW crew did work in the eyewall of Frances and found that suction vortices were responsible for most of the bad damage.

[AussieMark]

this is what I read in a Celia prelim report

Celia was a unique hurricane meteorologically in that most of the damage occurred in conjunction with explosive tornado-like winds that developed in the left semicircle. As Celia moved across the northern edge of Corpus Christi Bay the damage which occurred to the city of Corpus Christi to the south appeared to have resulted almost entirely from a few high energy bursts of west winds, all occurring in the course of about 15 minutes. The highest sustained winds were apparently no more than 120-130 mph. However, gust speeds locally reached values of 160 mph. Even to the right of the storm center the heaviest damage appeared to have occurred from south or southeast of the center.

how high of gusts are commonly observed with a cat 3 with 125-130 mph winds?