We Are Not Ready for This Hurricane Season
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Hopefully South Florida learned its lesson with the big ice fiasco last year with Wilma.
Also, the whole gas thing....for the life of me I still cannot understand why so many of these people absolutely NEEDED to get gas when few had power and little or nothing was open. What was the point? If you want to go somewhere, why not jump on a bike instead? It was just a gas frenzy...ridiculous.
South Florida should have learned its lesson in 1992....but unfortunately, this area is not known for its collective intelligence.
Also, the whole gas thing....for the life of me I still cannot understand why so many of these people absolutely NEEDED to get gas when few had power and little or nothing was open. What was the point? If you want to go somewhere, why not jump on a bike instead? It was just a gas frenzy...ridiculous.
South Florida should have learned its lesson in 1992....but unfortunately, this area is not known for its collective intelligence.
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S Fla/The Keys
MWatkins:
Great post. I was in Marathon on the 1st/2nd and was stunned at the amount of salt water damage in the upper and Middle Keys (and Florida Bay--the Islands out there were slammed).
Two quick things:
1) Matt Strahan is a great, great guy. I met him on a tour of the NWS office in Key West a few years ago. He is an absolute champion at doing the kinds of things you describe--keeping the community aware.
2) His point, and yours, that so many people THINK they have experienced a hurricane when they have not is in my opinion also, the greatest threat here. My parents live in the Ft Lauderdale area. After brushes from Frances and Jeanne, they thought they had "survived" a hurricane. Then Katrina came and they thought "wow, this is worse", but still not too bad. Then Wilma came through (as only A CAT 2!!!!) and they are saying "yeah, we've really been through a bad one now!".
In fact they have not, and they don't seem to realize how much worse it really could be, no matter how much I tell them. I was glad to see the Miami Herald story yesterday that set some of that straight.
And, as you point out, that could be the ultimate undoing of many. Someday, maybe soon, maybe not, a lot of people are going to die from a direct hit of a real major hurricane because they think they already survived a "bad" one.
Best--
WJS3
Great post. I was in Marathon on the 1st/2nd and was stunned at the amount of salt water damage in the upper and Middle Keys (and Florida Bay--the Islands out there were slammed).
Two quick things:
1) Matt Strahan is a great, great guy. I met him on a tour of the NWS office in Key West a few years ago. He is an absolute champion at doing the kinds of things you describe--keeping the community aware.
2) His point, and yours, that so many people THINK they have experienced a hurricane when they have not is in my opinion also, the greatest threat here. My parents live in the Ft Lauderdale area. After brushes from Frances and Jeanne, they thought they had "survived" a hurricane. Then Katrina came and they thought "wow, this is worse", but still not too bad. Then Wilma came through (as only A CAT 2!!!!) and they are saying "yeah, we've really been through a bad one now!".
In fact they have not, and they don't seem to realize how much worse it really could be, no matter how much I tell them. I was glad to see the Miami Herald story yesterday that set some of that straight.
And, as you point out, that could be the ultimate undoing of many. Someday, maybe soon, maybe not, a lot of people are going to die from a direct hit of a real major hurricane because they think they already survived a "bad" one.
Best--
WJS3
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MiamiensisWx
ONE OF THE BEST POSTS EVER, MIKE!
It is all so true, and you have made all your points said very well. People need to make preparations EVERY YEAR and TO THE BEST OF THEIR ABILITIES. Don't worry about getting too much when before each and every season arrives... the more, the better. What I am going to differently this season is to NOT ASSUME ANYTHING THAT WE "ARE READY" OR "DON'T NEED ANY MORE SUPPLIES; WE HAVE ENOUGH". That is because that, all too often in a storm's aftermath, we realize that we did NOT have enough, including of the basic survival supplies for a long period of time. Take the aftermath of Katrina, Andrew, and others for example. Many people who survived the storm died and suffocated in the aftermath. Having supplies to survive the aftermath for a long period of time should be one of the most important things every season. This does not just apply to only enough water, but to having your own gas cans for emergencies, enough batteries, enough food and flashlights after a storm, and other things like that. In the aftermath of Wilma, many people realized they were NOT as prepared as they thought. This was evident by the stress of people, the number asking for gas, food, and ice, and the enormous amount of backlash against FPL and government agencies such as FEMA and others. Why? A combination of factors resulted is the answer that resulted in this. Firstly, people thought they intially had enough and did not need to get more supplies before the season started and before Wilma arrived. Why? I think it is a combination of so-called, supposed past experience (I went through a hurricane last time, so why should this be any different?), short memory (forgetting how bad previous storms, even Irene from 1999, were and failing to remember that they were not prepared for the aftermath and effects of even Irene and learning lessons from storms in the past they experienced or heard about, such as Irene from 1999, Andrew from 1992, and even tropical storms which caused significant damage, flooding, stress, and revealed that no one should think any storm is weak - yet we failed to learn lessons even from tropical storms or forgot their effects, resulting in the thinking that Category One storms are "weak"), subjective and unfortunate ignorant thinking (my house is well-built, Category One storms won't cause many problems, it worked out last time supposedly, etc.), failure to think scientifically and objectively (is the house exposed to wind, surveying potential surge and evacuation plans, taking even tropical storms seriously for the damage and destruction they can cause and not as "weak", planning preparations for every storm accordingly on many factors, with storm intensity being the least important, etc.), and many other related factors. Consequently, we tend to underestimate storms because of our nature.
I have learned A LOT from this, and I mean it. I want my parents to take me seriously every season now, and respond and do things the way I learned. I will do the best to attempt to follow this and repeat it the new way I learned it (fostered by my knowledge from this wonderful place called Storm2K) when I become a father and have a family. Wilma was the first "true" hurricane I experienced, and I received predominantly sustained Category One winds from Wilma; however, look at the damage and they way people responded and acted in the aftermath. It tells you a lot, doesn't it? We must ALL try to remember lessons from storms and those storms' effects accurately. Do you think that Floyd from 1999 was no big deal because it (supposedly mostly) spared Florida and weakened significantly to a Category Two before it hit North Carolina? Well, try to remember better. Think again. Remember the flooding in North Carolina and eastern U.S. states from that storm, making it difficult for residents to get out of their homes without the aid of boats and making the aftermath nearly unbearable in many ways (and this was all caused WELL INLAND from the coast)? Heard about the extensive and terrible damage from Floyd in the Bahamas? Remember the VERY SEVERE beach erosion along the eastern Florida coast from Floyd? And did you know that sustained tropical storm-force winds from Floyd (although hurricane-force winds were in a VERY SMALL area as the storm made U.S. landfall) caused extensive damages in North Carolina and elsewhere? Too often, we forget the effects of even tropical storms and, consequently, fail to learn lessions and adapt, tweak, and gather knowledge to hurricane preparedness every season. Many factors (intensity is the least important) defines how destructive a storm (tropical storms not excluded, either) may be. What angle is thew storm coming in? How will that effect the surge and the amount of friction that brings down winds in certain areas? Very importantly, what about storm size? Katrina's large size, early build-up in intensity, plus a shallow northern Gulf resulted in monster surge amounts. Numerous bayous and coves funneled the surge inland. Is your house situated in a "funnel" scenario in an area that may be very vulnerable to extremely vulnerable to flooding or storm surge? What is the topography and geography of your area? How is your house exposed to wind? Is your property in low, mud-prone, surge-prone, or flood-prone area? Are any trees near your home? Does the topography of your area mean that nearby trees may uproot and/or snap, potentially landing on your home and meaning your last night alive while you thought the storm appeared to be no big deal? We need smart people surveying factors like this and frantically buying everything they can and as much they can for preparedness before every season starts. Every storm is a big deal. Intensity has little bearing on a storm's severe or minimal effect; population of an area and a surge-prone barrier island or coastal area has more to do with that. Every storm can be your personal "big one". It can change your life in one way or another. It will. You can learn lessons from every storm, even tropical storms, especially if it is your personal "big one". This is important. If all these parameters are met, we WILL be knowledgeable. We WILL be prepared, and we WILL prepare for every storm in different ways according to the setup (NOT a storm's intensity). We WILL stock up before EVERY season arrives. EVERYONE is under the gun, and we are ALL equally under the gun EVERY year. This cannot be emphasized enough. We may be different, but we are ALL in the same boat - whether inland or on the coast or on a barrier island or on a surge-prone bay. Knowledge is one of the big parts of the key. Let's get ready for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and let's do this - and remember and learn - for EVERY season!
This thread and post by you, Mike, should be remembered and be kept in our heads. We ALL need something like this! We ALL need it!
It is all so true, and you have made all your points said very well. People need to make preparations EVERY YEAR and TO THE BEST OF THEIR ABILITIES. Don't worry about getting too much when before each and every season arrives... the more, the better. What I am going to differently this season is to NOT ASSUME ANYTHING THAT WE "ARE READY" OR "DON'T NEED ANY MORE SUPPLIES; WE HAVE ENOUGH". That is because that, all too often in a storm's aftermath, we realize that we did NOT have enough, including of the basic survival supplies for a long period of time. Take the aftermath of Katrina, Andrew, and others for example. Many people who survived the storm died and suffocated in the aftermath. Having supplies to survive the aftermath for a long period of time should be one of the most important things every season. This does not just apply to only enough water, but to having your own gas cans for emergencies, enough batteries, enough food and flashlights after a storm, and other things like that. In the aftermath of Wilma, many people realized they were NOT as prepared as they thought. This was evident by the stress of people, the number asking for gas, food, and ice, and the enormous amount of backlash against FPL and government agencies such as FEMA and others. Why? A combination of factors resulted is the answer that resulted in this. Firstly, people thought they intially had enough and did not need to get more supplies before the season started and before Wilma arrived. Why? I think it is a combination of so-called, supposed past experience (I went through a hurricane last time, so why should this be any different?), short memory (forgetting how bad previous storms, even Irene from 1999, were and failing to remember that they were not prepared for the aftermath and effects of even Irene and learning lessons from storms in the past they experienced or heard about, such as Irene from 1999, Andrew from 1992, and even tropical storms which caused significant damage, flooding, stress, and revealed that no one should think any storm is weak - yet we failed to learn lessons even from tropical storms or forgot their effects, resulting in the thinking that Category One storms are "weak"), subjective and unfortunate ignorant thinking (my house is well-built, Category One storms won't cause many problems, it worked out last time supposedly, etc.), failure to think scientifically and objectively (is the house exposed to wind, surveying potential surge and evacuation plans, taking even tropical storms seriously for the damage and destruction they can cause and not as "weak", planning preparations for every storm accordingly on many factors, with storm intensity being the least important, etc.), and many other related factors. Consequently, we tend to underestimate storms because of our nature.
I have learned A LOT from this, and I mean it. I want my parents to take me seriously every season now, and respond and do things the way I learned. I will do the best to attempt to follow this and repeat it the new way I learned it (fostered by my knowledge from this wonderful place called Storm2K) when I become a father and have a family. Wilma was the first "true" hurricane I experienced, and I received predominantly sustained Category One winds from Wilma; however, look at the damage and they way people responded and acted in the aftermath. It tells you a lot, doesn't it? We must ALL try to remember lessons from storms and those storms' effects accurately. Do you think that Floyd from 1999 was no big deal because it (supposedly mostly) spared Florida and weakened significantly to a Category Two before it hit North Carolina? Well, try to remember better. Think again. Remember the flooding in North Carolina and eastern U.S. states from that storm, making it difficult for residents to get out of their homes without the aid of boats and making the aftermath nearly unbearable in many ways (and this was all caused WELL INLAND from the coast)? Heard about the extensive and terrible damage from Floyd in the Bahamas? Remember the VERY SEVERE beach erosion along the eastern Florida coast from Floyd? And did you know that sustained tropical storm-force winds from Floyd (although hurricane-force winds were in a VERY SMALL area as the storm made U.S. landfall) caused extensive damages in North Carolina and elsewhere? Too often, we forget the effects of even tropical storms and, consequently, fail to learn lessions and adapt, tweak, and gather knowledge to hurricane preparedness every season. Many factors (intensity is the least important) defines how destructive a storm (tropical storms not excluded, either) may be. What angle is thew storm coming in? How will that effect the surge and the amount of friction that brings down winds in certain areas? Very importantly, what about storm size? Katrina's large size, early build-up in intensity, plus a shallow northern Gulf resulted in monster surge amounts. Numerous bayous and coves funneled the surge inland. Is your house situated in a "funnel" scenario in an area that may be very vulnerable to extremely vulnerable to flooding or storm surge? What is the topography and geography of your area? How is your house exposed to wind? Is your property in low, mud-prone, surge-prone, or flood-prone area? Are any trees near your home? Does the topography of your area mean that nearby trees may uproot and/or snap, potentially landing on your home and meaning your last night alive while you thought the storm appeared to be no big deal? We need smart people surveying factors like this and frantically buying everything they can and as much they can for preparedness before every season starts. Every storm is a big deal. Intensity has little bearing on a storm's severe or minimal effect; population of an area and a surge-prone barrier island or coastal area has more to do with that. Every storm can be your personal "big one". It can change your life in one way or another. It will. You can learn lessons from every storm, even tropical storms, especially if it is your personal "big one". This is important. If all these parameters are met, we WILL be knowledgeable. We WILL be prepared, and we WILL prepare for every storm in different ways according to the setup (NOT a storm's intensity). We WILL stock up before EVERY season arrives. EVERYONE is under the gun, and we are ALL equally under the gun EVERY year. This cannot be emphasized enough. We may be different, but we are ALL in the same boat - whether inland or on the coast or on a barrier island or on a surge-prone bay. Knowledge is one of the big parts of the key. Let's get ready for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and let's do this - and remember and learn - for EVERY season!
This thread and post by you, Mike, should be remembered and be kept in our heads. We ALL need something like this! We ALL need it!
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SouthFloridawx
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NCHurricane
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terstorm1012
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MiamiensisWx
terstorm1012 wrote:DUDE GO GET PREPARED!
do it now before the hurricane rush and while you're relaxed and not tense about the impending storm!
AMEN! Get as much as you can now. Get as many bottles - large and small - as you can. Get TONS of large and small batteries. Get a handy small/portable grill or stove. Get LOTS of flashlights. I have one that is waterproof and doesn't need batteries and is VERY bright! It's GREAT for a disaster! Get anything you can, and don't let anyone tell you that you are getting too much! Better to be safe and relieved that you prepared than sorry! Even a tropical storm can - in fact, is - destructive!
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Great post. We helped a friend of ours move a couple of days ago. Her new place is right on the bay here, and after the move, sitting around eating and drinking a few well deserved beers, the topic of conversation was, what would be the best shutters? One of the guys is a construction guy and the shutters will be in place very soon. It wasn't a "should I or shouldn't I" it was, "what is the best kind for this place?" We also talked about the coconut trees, and getting down the coconuts early (they can be a serious weapon, in case you've never thought about it...).
To paraphrase Mike's post, we can't fix everything but we CAN ready ourselves and our loved ones.
To paraphrase Mike's post, we can't fix everything but we CAN ready ourselves and our loved ones.
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vacanechaser
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you guys have all been fooled.... watkins did not right this at all.... JB did..... 
good job mike... with all the praise on this post, you may need a wig before to long...
already thin on top... lol...
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
good job mike... with all the praise on this post, you may need a wig before to long...
already thin on top... lol...
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Stratosphere747
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The problem is the general public has ADD/Short-term memory loss when it comes to hurricanes.
As proud as I was that my fellow Texans observed the warnings and evacuation calls for Rita, I'm convinced that it was only done so because of Katrina, and how recent her impacts were. Without Katrina I doubt we would have seen half of the evacuations, mandatory or not.
As proud as I was that my fellow Texans observed the warnings and evacuation calls for Rita, I'm convinced that it was only done so because of Katrina, and how recent her impacts were. Without Katrina I doubt we would have seen half of the evacuations, mandatory or not.
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Re: We Are Not Ready for This Hurricane Season
MWatkins wrote:An NHC false-alarm email has aleady sparked panic in New Orleans.
MW
Whatever came of that? Did they find out how that happened?
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johngaltfla
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T'Bonz wrote:^
I got it. But I'm a Pennsylvania native.
As for evacuating, that is a problem. Look at the mess in Houston last year.
I live in S. Florida. It takes (under the best conditions), six hours to get to N. Florida. Now jam the major highways with everyone trying to head north. Scary.
Yes, there are some small not-as-well-known roads, which normally would be slower than the highways. I would try that. My only worry is that others would think like that and avoid the highways and hit 27 and then have that jam up.
Problem is, not enough ways out and we never get enough time to evacuate.
The big problem is that our state Emergency officials are clueless. They turn the interstates or turnpike northbound only, but not the U.S. or state highways. So everyone heads to the major thoroughfares while 27, 1, etc. are slammed, yet the southbound lane is wide open.
The shelter situation in my area is "dire" at best. Instead of finding 8 more as neeed and determinged by the state EOC, Sarasota County has found 1.
That's right, one.
Our population has quintupled in the last 5 years and we've added a total of 2 shelters. Most residents never evacuate the Keys here (Siesta, Lido, Longboat, Manasota, etc.) and claim that these storms never hit here, are over-rated, etc. These are the same idiots that have never been in the you know what after Charley hit, in Naples the day after Wilma hit, nor been to Homestead a week after Andrew. For the life of me, I don't understand this. There are entire cities obliterated in LA, yet they figure the government will bail them out.
As a society, our dependency on government will eventually catch up to this that one of these storms will kill thousands of people. And the government, no matter who is President, will get the blame.
This is the same government cutting funding to the NHC and Coast Guard.
God help the fools who will not listen.
PS. - Mike-WITH YOUR PERMISSION, I would really like to post this article of yours on other sites, giving full credit to Storm2K. Let me know if that is okay.
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T'Bonz wrote:^
Problem is, not enough ways out and we never get enough time to evacuate.
Here's my solution to that...evacuate BEFORE the order is issued...by reading this board, you are in a great position to make the decision to leave before the general public gets the mandatory evac order. We always get out before the traffic starts...I remember sitting in my hotel room in Greenville, Alabama, during Ivan, watching I-65 jam-packed (with contra-flow in effect)...Our evacuation from Katrina was rather leisurely...Our evacuation from Dennis was a pain (but that's because of Montgomery's horrendous traffic on a good day).
When a hurricane or storm is anywhere in the Caribbean or east of Florida...I make inland hotel reservations (usually 5 days in advance)...if the storm turns the other way, I just cancel the reservations. I did this for Ivan (hit/used reservation), Katrina (hit/used reservation), Dennis (hurricane force gusts/used reservation), Rita (miss/canceled), Emily (big miss/canceled), Arlene (hit/but we stayed), and Cindy (hit/but we stayed and shouldn't have--I can attest to the fact that Cindy was indeed a Hurricane at landfall).
Be sure you read the hotel's cancellation policy closely to be sure you don't run up hotel bills unnecessarily.
Our new modular house (built to Boca code) should be installed by mid-June...hopefully it will be ready before the storms start coming again!! Our old house survived Frederic, Elena and Ivan...but Katrina took a big bite out of the Gulf-side of the house and we let the house go to that big neighborhood in the sky
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