"Major hurricane season brewing in the Atlantic" -

[dixiebreeze]

Major hurricane season brewing in the Atlantic
Associated Press

FREDERICTON -- In what could signal a frightening new fact of life in the age of global warming, Canadian and U.S. forecasters are warning that another major hurricane season is brewing in the Atlantic Ocean.

The 2006 hurricane season officially opens on June 1, and already scientists are telling people living in eastern North America that numerous storms are predicted, with as many as five major hurricanes packing winds of 180 km/h or greater.

"It's kind of comparable to what we were looking at last year at this time," says Bob Robichaud, a meteorologist with the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Dartmouth, N.S.

"Last year we were looking at 12 to 15 storms and this year the forecast is for about 17. No one would go out on a limb and say it is going to be just as bad as last year, but the indications are there that it is still going to be another active season, almost twice as active as normal."

Last year's hurricane season was the most destructive on record.

There were 27 named storms, 15 hurricanes and seven intense hurricanes during the 2005 season. The worst damage was along the U.S. Gulf coast.

Scientists with the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team say the same factors that contributed to last year's violent season are still in play this year.

"The Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm, and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have continued to cool," says Colorado University forecaster Phil Klotzbach, explaining two of the key triggers for hurricanes.

The Eastern seaboard has been locked in an active storm period for the past decade and while these seasons are normally cyclical, no one knows when, or if, the active period will end.

"Is this global warming? From now on will we see only active hurricane seasons? That's the big question," says Canadian weather guru Dave Phillips of Environment Canada.

While there is no scientific proof that the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is breeding more hurricanes, Phillips says global warming could be contributing to the unusual power of the big storms, like last year's Katrina.

"We are seeing stronger hurricanes - almost a 100 per cent increase in category fours and fives," he says.

"When they do develop, they're a lot bigger, tougher and have more destructive power. They stay together longer. This is the concern. They seem to have more power. That could have a connection to global warming - the fact the atmosphere has changed and ocean temperatures have warmed."

Forecasters stress that there is no way to know, at this point, how many big storms will make landfall or whether any will be able to pick up enough steam to significantly affect Eastern Canada.

That's what happened in 2003, when hurricane Juan stoked up energy from unusually warm waters off northeastern North America and blasted the Maritimes, causing death and destruction in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and parts of New Brunswick.

Phillips says that despite this year's grim forecast, a lot can happen to shut down offshore hurricanes and prevent them from causing onshore harm.

"The temperature of the water has to be right, the winds have to be just perfect, the timing has to be just so and the depth of the water has to be just so," Phillips says.

"It's like baking a souffle. A lot of things have to come together and if someone slams the door, it won't rise."

Phillips adds that, curiously, what happens in the Pacific with the La Nina phenomenon can have major impact on the Atlantic hurricane season.

La Nina refers to a pattern of usually cold surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The east-to-west winds of La Nina tend to be more favourable for producing hurricanes in the Atlantic.

While La Nina has been the dominating factor in the Pacific for the past two years, it appears to be easing.

NASA oceanographers say they believe La Nina will not affect Atlantic hurricanes this year.

Whatever happens, people who have experienced the wrath of a major hurricane are taking precautions.

A 2005 Environment Canada survey of about 500 Halifax-area residents, obtained by The Canadian Press through Access to Information, found that a majority of respondents - 53 per cent - now feel vulnerable to hurricanes.

It also found that 71 per cent of respondents would do things differently if another hurricane like Juan is forecast for the area.

Nova Scotia resident Lynn Brooks, who lives near Halifax, was one of thousands of Maritimers who experienced property damage and power outages during Juan.

Brooks says she now keeps extra water in her home, because if the power goes out, her well goes off.

"I think I'm like a lot of people in this region," she says.

"We will never taken another hurricane warning for granted."

[Bluefrog]

Well *$@!%$^*

[HurryKane]

It's hardly new news, it's just framed to look terrifiying, sell newspapers, and garner pageviews. Media silliness.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, HurryKane. I see ENDLESS media-typical errors in the article.

[Scorpion]

Especially the La Nina part. They say its been going on for 2 years. Riiight.

[rainstorm]

it may be wise to go against the bandwagon here. some huge numbers are being bandied about, and we forget the long term agerages are 10/6/2. the big numbers may be right, lets hope not though

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I do agree that these types of articles are intended to frighten the public (same as all the "Bird Flu" stories in the Media). With that stated however. I am still VERY concerned about this upcoming season. No one can dispute that there have been many ominous signs this past winter, and spring (at least thus far). I name below but a few:


1. The lack of normal Winter Ice in the North Atlantic

2. The strong Greenland Block

3. Disturbances that have tried to fight off the strong shear

4. A very active ITCZ; especially in the last couple of months

[HurryKane]

Oh, I'm concerned about the season as well, living where I do. I guess I've just seen the information so many times that the New! Scary! Yet Repetitive! Article! just didn't bowl me over any more than I already was.

[stormtruth]

Media hype? Media silliness? Look at what happened last year with Rita, Katrina, Wilma, etc., etc. that we still have not cleaned up from. People should be scared and ready. Otherwise they will stay in their homes when the storms come and die. We are talking average Joes here not folks like us who read every last detail and every hurricane article and blog post every written.

[dixiebreeze]

I saw the article and posted it FYI. I agree that there is little brand new, but reminders are always good.

At this moment, it's hard to imagine any storm in the GOM -- we've been without measurable rain for months here in W.C. Fla.

[Audrey2Katrina]

It's hardly new news, it's just framed to look terrifiying, sell newspapers, and garner pageviews. Media silliness.

I agree 100%....

[HurryKane]

Media hype? Media silliness? Look at what happened last year with Rita, Katrina, Wilma, etc., etc. that we still have not cleaned up from. People should be scared and ready. Otherwise they will stay in their homes when the storms come and die. We are talking average Joes here not folks like us who read every last detail and every hurricane article and blog post every written.

Dude, I live in what Katrina did. I look at it every day. And I stand by what I said. Even when you're talking to average Joes, it's good to report with facts and less sensationalism.

dixiebreeze, my initial response wasn't directed towards you, but just a reaction to Bluefrog's post. No harm intended.

[spinfan4eva]

Media hype? Media silliness? Look at what happened last year with Rita, Katrina, Wilma, etc., etc. that we still have not cleaned up from. People should be scared and ready. Otherwise they will stay in their homes when the storms come and die. We are talking average Joes here not folks like us who read every last detail and every hurricane article and blog post every written.

I see your point but there is no need to hype it so much-treat it like any other year. Yes, another hurricane season is coming, Yes get prepared like you always do. With last year fresh on peoples minds, hype from the media isnt necessary and particularly hype targeting new england as one hypecaster has done when its May and there is no storm nor is there any way of saying who will be hit at this preseason time. Now suppose we have 31 Named storms, 20 Hurricanes and 10 Majors that all stay harmlessly out to sea. No one will care about the number of storms this season had and it will be another time when media cried wolf especially in New england.

[HurryKane]

Oh phooey, I just realized I misspelled "terrifying" and can't fix it because people quoted it. Dang you all.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is scary to think that in just 22 days hurricane season starts. What that means it that within 53 days we will likely have already seen our first storm form (and possibly make landfall). Also, within 100 days we will be in the peak of hurricane season and high alert will be in place from Texas to Maine. I hope everyone is ready. It is coming fast!

[Derek Ortt]

Helen,

the average for the last 11 years is 15 named storms. The 10 figure really is not valid in our current active cycle. 15 is the norm, at least for now

[rainstorm]

we will see about that. even if 15 is the norm, 27 last year plus 3 this year would avg to 15. i think we will see more than 3 this year, but some of these forecasts may be somewhat high

[dixiebreeze]

Looking at this tonight makes the season feel a whole lot closer:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

[HurryKane]

Heh, just as I read your post, dixie, thunder started to rumble.

[CHRISTY]

thanks god its may cause those are some big WAVES coming of africa...