Questions I have on a hurricane striking New York City

[Hurricaneman]

Its only a matter of time before this happens again IMO

[terstorm1012]

New Jersey roads that will be contraflowed:
47/347
Atlantic City Expressway
72/70
35
138/I-195

source:
http://www.rsip.lsu.edu/anb10-3/Resourc ... raflow.pdf

[terstorm1012]

I just had an idea....

Since New York state doesn't seem to have a contraflow plan, perhaps we could develop one here and email our findings to the New York State DOT. They might take them under advisement.

Just an idea I had...anyone else think this is a good idea?

UNRELATED to my idea but somewhat on topic, has the 1938 Long Island-New England storm re-analysis been posted? Been looking forward to that!

[Stephanie]

Top 10 worst places for an extreme hurricane to strike
Rank Location Possible insured losses* Potential total economic losses**
1 Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, Fla. $61.3 billion $122.6 billion
2 New York City, N.Y. $26.5 billion $53
billion
3 Tampa/St. Petersburg, Fla. $25.1 billion $50
billion
4 Houston/Galveston, Texas $16.8 billion $33.6
billion
5 New Orleans, La. $8.4 billion $16.8
billion
6 Mobile, Ala. $6.0 billion $12
billion
7 Boston, Mass. $5.1 billion $10.2
billion
8 Biloxi/Gulfport, Miss. $5.1 billion $10.2
billion
9 Myrtle Beach, S.C. $4.3 billion $8.6
billion
10 Norfolk, Va. $3.9 billion $7.8
billion


Well, in 2005 alone, we've had 4 of the 10 nailed by either Rita or Wilma!

Great analysis terstorm1012! Alot of great information everyone!

[quandary]

Top 10 worst places for an extreme hurricane to strike
Rank Location Possible insured losses* Potential total economic losses**
1 Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, Fla. $61.3 billion $122.6 billion
2 New York City, N.Y. $26.5 billion $53
billion
3 Tampa/St. Petersburg, Fla. $25.1 billion $50
billion
4 Houston/Galveston, Texas $16.8 billion $33.6
billion
5 New Orleans, La. $8.4 billion $16.8
billion
6 Mobile, Ala. $6.0 billion $12
billion
7 Boston, Mass. $5.1 billion $10.2
billion
8 Biloxi/Gulfport, Miss. $5.1 billion $10.2
billion
9 Myrtle Beach, S.C. $4.3 billion $8.6
billion
10 Norfolk, Va. $3.9 billion $7.8
billion

Great analysis terstorm1012! Alot of great information everyone!

Huh??

This doesn't make any sense. If the maximum damage on this list is $122 billion in economic impact and N.O was only 17 billion, why did Katrina in NO cause about $200 billion in economic impact and $80 billion in insured losses. I think this scale is bunk. The only one that might be correct is the Miami number.

[terstorm1012]

I believe Stephanie's scale is from an insurance company whose name I can't place right now but I've seen it before. IMO I think it's pretty accurate, as economic impact includes effects on the economy both regional, national and global.

[SamSagnella]

Contraflow would never work in New York City, especially with a probable storm motion >25-30kt. The population density does not drop off very rapidly once you leave the immediate city and millions would try to flee, clogging the roads with likely 24 hours or less from evacuation order to landfall. Tens of thousands of people, if not more,(especially those on LI) would be stuck in gridlock as the storm hit. I would have to imagine that every hotel room in the northeastern QUARTER of the country would be full if a full evac of NYC is attempted. Whether it be a major storm or not, a hurricane is in all likelihood going to make a run for the New England coastline in the next decade or so, and personal plans are widely viewed as the best way to ensure one's safety in the event of such a situation.

[terstorm1012]

good point Sam, but I think 2 million at most within the city itself need to leave and find shelter elsewhere in the city or other states, and maybe another million on the Island. Which is why, if you're not in an evac zone, STAY PUT with your supplies and ride it out.

It's my hope that emergency mangement is driving this point home.

[Derek Ortt]

there will be much more than 26 billion in damage for NYC. That scale is worthless bunk. At at least 1 0 to the end of 26 billiopn, and the number may be closer to reality

[Stephanie]

I believe Stephanie's scale is from an insurance company whose name I can't place right now but I've seen it before. IMO I think it's pretty accurate, as economic impact includes effects on the economy both regional, national and global.

It was, and I can't remember the link I copied it from - sorry guys.

These were intial estimates of damage and I think that this reported back in 2004.

[jasons2k]

NYC would be in the worst quadrant - the NE, if there's a NJ landfall, especially closer to the northern part of the state.

Manhatten is the only island in the "city" of NY. Brooklyn and Queens are located on Long Island. They're all at sea level or perhaps slightly above. There would be significant flooding due to the surge. I'm sure that the Lincoln, Holland and Midtown tunnels would be innundated with water and perhaps not be usable for quite sometime. The Verrazano Narrrows bridge that links Staten Island to Brooklyn is a double-decker. I don't know what level winds it can hold up under. It would be devastating.

Staten Island is also an island.

Also, more of the city is safely higher than the surge zone than most people realize. The highest point, on Staten Island, is 410 ft. above sea level.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

NYC would outrank Miami hands down , simply because it is the Economic (a.k.a. Wall Street) and Communication capital of the US, and one of the Economic Capitals of the World. I agree with one of the above posters, that list is bunk.

[JTD]

Stupid question because all I really need to do is look at a map but I'm too lazy.

Anyway, is it possible for a hurricane to enter the Hudson River? Remember the aerial shots of NYC on 9/11 where you could see the Statue of Liberty in the foreground and the water's edge was very close to the ruins of the WTC? Could a Hurricane travel right up through there?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yes. It could. All depends on the setup of fronts and highs (steering currents).

[Stephanie]

NYC would be in the worst quadrant - the NE, if there's a NJ landfall, especially closer to the northern part of the state.

Manhatten is the only island in the "city" of NY. Brooklyn and Queens are located on Long Island. They're all at sea level or perhaps slightly above. There would be significant flooding due to the surge. I'm sure that the Lincoln, Holland and Midtown tunnels would be innundated with water and perhaps not be usable for quite sometime. The Verrazano Narrrows bridge that links Staten Island to Brooklyn is a double-decker. I don't know what level winds it can hold up under. It would be devastating.

Staten Island is also an island.

Also, more of the city is safely higher than the surge zone than most people realize. The highest point, on Staten Island, is 410 ft. above sea level.

Is it really? I thought it was attached to New Jersey, kind of like the Bronx being attached to Upstate NY.

[terstorm1012]

yep, all of New York City except the Bronx are on islands.