Jim Lushine's Article ....Will it hold true in 06?

[CHRISTY]

I know this has probably been posted on here before but as the days continue to go by iam begining to more worried if JIM'S study will hold true this season. I would like to know everyones thoughts on this! Thanks.

HERE'S THE LINK....

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2005/04/28/54367.htm

[terstorm1012]

We'll have to wait and see, I think Christy.

Others on this site have noted the same coincidences, not only for Florida but elsewhere along the Atlantic Seaboard. So who knows...

[SouthFloridawx]

We'll have to wait the rest of May out because very quickly we could go from dry to wet here in florida. It doesn't take much here to put us back to normal. A couple of stalled troughs across the peninsula could take care of that. It's only the 8th of may so there is no way to know.

[GeneratorPower]

An interesting article. This is anecdotal evidence, for sure. But sometimes it turns out to be correct. Hmnn...

[Evil Jeremy]

i want to say no but my guts say probally.

[clfenwi]

This kind of gives the impression that he's backed away from his theory...

It's a Winners and Losers post for 2005 and the theory is under Losers...

• Bermuda High theories: South Florida's rainy May should mean a lower chance of hurricanes hitting the region in August and September, National Weather Service meteorologist Jim Lushine said in a much-publicized prediction based on the enigmatic Bermuda High. The veteran forecaster later said he was almost right — South Florida didn't get the worst of Katrina or Rita, for example. (And Wilma didn't come until late October.) Still, Lushine acknowledged at his retirement dinner Sept. 30: " 'When it's wet in May, you're OK' — you'll never hear that one again.

[vacanechaser]

well one would have to think that it is clearly anyone's guess... look at last year... may was fairly wet for you guys in florida... you were hit 4 times and grazed by another.... katrina, dennis, tammy, wilma, and grazed by rita.... it will be interesting to see what happens...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, depending on the scenario or setup, the answer to whether that theory is correct may be yes or no. Although east hits have occurred after many dry Aprils and Mays, wet years have also yielded some east hits at times - 1947, for example, had a wet May, yet a Cape Verde-type major hurricane still hit southeast Florida from the east.

It is simply too early to tell, and there are many other factors that influence ridging and many other factors besides ridging that influence Atlantic hurricane tracks and movement and formation areas. Right now, we are in a persistent negative NAO and climatological pattern that is resulting in weaker ridging than it has been earlier in March and early to middle April. The Azores High is currently more dominant than the Bermuda High, unlike in March and April, when Bermuda High-like ridging was repeatedly trying to set up. NAO plays a huge part in Atlantic troughiness/ridge patterns. SOI and other factors are critical, too. If the current pattern holds, North Carolina might be at more of a risk to hits than Florida in the heart of the season, with the biggest threats to Florida being not from the east, but from the southwest late in the season. Still, things can change. Also, low-level steering currents, besides ridging, are also important influences in hurricane movement. Let's watch the pattern setup as time rolls on.

[mempho]

In answer to your original question, who knows? I have not seen any reason to believe that a dry May leads to an active hurricane season. I would actually think that a wet May would be caused by an active tropics....which would indicate an active season. If there is a cause/effect relationship here, I would like to see the explanation.

[corpusbreeze]

No proven facts to support. Just a bunch of BS.

[boca]

I think whatever pattern is in place at the time the storm is approaching is the logical answer,but I give Jim Lushine's article credit. I think more research should be done on this theory.