SKETCHES OF A CATASTROPHE....PLEASE READ.

[MiamiensisWx]

Wasn't Andrew like the United States version of Cyclone Tracy in Darwin? The damage in Homestead, Naranja, Perrine, Cutler Ridge, Florida City, and nearby areas looked like Cyclone Tracy's Darwin damage. Also, weren't the construction of buildings in Homestead similar to Darwin's construction when Tracy hit?

[MGC]

Don't forget the huge wave that will be on top of the surge. The waves do the damage. The waves on the Atlantic facing beaches will be huge, much larger than Katrina produced on the Miss coast......MGC

[MiamiensisWx]

How do I run a SLOSH map program? Do I need to buy it to have access to SLOSH maps? Also, can anyone show me a SLOSH map showing surge values if the following storm occurred?

I want a SLOSH map showing the surge values for the following storm scenario...

-Direct hit on Fort Lauderdale
-155MPH sustained winds and 922 millibars at landfall
-Large windfield (sustained hurricane-force winds out 100 miles, sustained tropical storm-force winds out 180 miles)
-Intense eyewall
-25-mile-wide eye at landfall on Fort Lauderdale
-Large size of storm (entire storm 350 to 400 miles across)
-Northern eyewall is is in northern Broward and southern Palm Beach counties, while southern eyewall is in far southern Broward and northern Miami-Dade counties (almost reaching Miami)

What would the surge values of this be? Can someone compose this on a SLOSH map and show it to me?

[Derek Ortt]

Andrew was a lot larger than Tracy

Even Charley was quite a bit larger than Tracy. TS winds in that cat 5 only extended out about 20-25NM

Had Tracy hit where Andrew did, the city of Miami would have been untouched and would have received less than TS winds. Just a moderately breezy day for them, not even enough to call a baseball game

[MiamiensisWx]

Andrew was a lot larger than Tracy

Even Charley was quite a bit larger than Tracy. TS winds in that cat 5 only extended out about 20-25NM

Had Tracy hit where Andrew did, the city of Miami would have been untouched and would have received less than TS winds. Just a moderately breezy day for them, not even enough to call a baseball game

I know Andrew and Charley were both larger than Tracy. However, like Tracy, they were both very small cyclones (though not as tiny as Tracy).

The reason why I am comparing Andrew to Tracy is because the damage in Homestead and surrounding areas and the construction of buildings in that surrounding general area were very similar to Darwin's devastation from Tracy and Darwin's building construction that perished in Tracy. What do you think?

[stormtruth]

remember, Andrew also leveled Florida City, Cutler Ridge, and Leisure City. Not to mention a 10 foot surge at Coconut Grove

but.. Andrew was not Katrina sized and the article is about a Katrina-sized storm hitting South Florida.

[zlaxier]

we will never see sustained major hurricane winds from Miami to Palm beach in a continuous line, since the major hurricane winds are found in very small streaks

Not true. Take a Cat 5 Katrina like we saw it in the gulf and let it come in from the south and head NNW making landfall at Homestead and then smashing into the rest of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach.

All 3 counties would see at least Cat 3 sustained.

[JPmia]

The part of the article that stood out to me was the power outage crisis that would follow the scenario storm. Months to a year for some parts of South Florida. YIKES. generators with $3 gas prices! By the way, today's building codes are MUCH better than prior to Andrew. They include many more variables in their structural analysis of wind loading on structures and materials than they did in the 1950s with the first edition of the SFBC. Of course, the codes are not perfect and are not designed for 160mph winds with 200mph gusts. With that storm, you might as well pack your bags and head north.

[T'Bonz]

yeah. Homestead was so unpopulated that it only destroyed 80,000 homes and businesses

The population where Andrew hit was much less than in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area.

Even so, for those who Andrew impacted, it was bad indeed. That there was not as large of a group affected as would have been had it hit Miami or Ft. Lauderdale does not make it a lesser tragedy.

The part of the article that stood out to me was the power outage crisis that would follow the scenario storm. Months to a year for some parts of South Florida.

I think one would see an exodus. Many people here lost power for 2 weeks after Wilma. I was going nuts after three days without it. I cannot imagine months.

[Derek Ortt]

Again,

it is NOT POSSIBLE to see sustained cat 3 winds continously from Miami to Palm Beach, as they occur in small STREAKS. There would be many breaks between, even in a typhoon Tip sized storm. Furthermore, the cat 3 winds do not extend out 70NM from the center, unless the eye itself is that large. They are confined to the eye wall.

Cat 1/2 winds, a good chance... we already saw that, but it took one of the largest Atlantic hurricanes ever to produce that

[windycity]

Thanks Derek, i always look forward to your words of wisdom. Now, here in palm beach county, what could we expect surge wise if we had a direct hit from a cat 4? How about wave heigths? Lets say this is large storm, but not a oddity like those seen last year. I keep hearing conflicting reports on what would happen. I beleive here in Juno Beach, we sit about 15 feet above sea level.

[Derek Ortt]

you would see probably 8-10 feet in a strong cat 4 hurricane. Nowever, the waves would be higher than seen for the NGOM. There is an inverse relation between surge and wave height

[windycity]

so, how high could the waves get ? I understand about waves and water depth, i just need to get an idea so nothing hits me by surprise.

[Derek Ortt]

maybe 10-20 feet. Bahamas break up the 50 footers that would otherwise impact the coast

[zlaxier]

Again,

it is NOT POSSIBLE to see sustained cat 3 winds continously from Miami to Palm Beach, as they occur in small STREAKS. There would be many breaks between, even in a typhoon Tip sized storm. Furthermore, the cat 3 winds do not extend out 70NM from the center, unless the eye itself is that large. They are confined to the eye wall.

Cat 1/2 winds, a good chance... we already saw that, but it took one of the largest Atlantic hurricanes ever to produce that

Katrina at her peak had a 30 mile wide eye and 175 mph winds.



So you are telling me if that storm hypothetically comes in on the track below which basically parallels the coast from Homestead to West Palm Beach, that all three counties would not experience at least Cat 3 conditions, it not 4 or 5?

[Scorpion]

I believe with that track it would weaken considerably by the time it arrived in Palm Beach County.

[zlaxier]

A huge chunk of the storm would still be over the gulf stream under this track and entire eye would not be inland until it reaches Central Broward county. Part of the eye would always remain over water as it is hitting Dade and Southern Broward.

[Scorpion]

Depends on the speed of the storm. If it is moving quickly, then I could definitely see major hurricane winds affecting Miami all the way to Lake Okeechobee.

[zlaxier]

Here are more graphics I made of the hypothetical storm. I believe this would be the "doomsday" storm for South Florida as all 3 counties would suffer major impacts from the core of a monster sized Cat 5.

[JPmia]

Here are more graphics I made of the hypothetical storm. I believe this would be the "doomsday" storm for South Florida as all 3 counties would suffer major impacts from the core of a monster sized Cat 5.

That's the "pack your bags and say goodbye to South Florida" storm I was talking about.