We Are Not Ready for This Hurricane Season

[MWatkins]

As the season looms, it's becoming more and more apparent that the US is not ready for this upcoming season.

I was fortunate enough to travel down to Marathon Key (on behalf of Mark Sudduth and hurricanetrack.com) this weekend to help out at a Hurricane Seminar. This was my first trip into the Keys in some 14 years or so.

The upper and middle Keys have really changed. Well, all of them have since my last visit, but, there is a ton of new construction there with perhaps billions of new residential developments down there. Surrounding these beautiful and vulnerable estates are poorly constructed commercial store fronts of every type you can imagine. Many are built from metal or sheeting, there are billboards everywhere and in many places, residents down there have been allowed to build their own home over time with little regulation or oversight.

So as I stood at the monument to the 1935 hurricane in Islamorada, surrounded by all of these things on a 2 lane road out of the Keys, it is very obvious. They Keys are not ready for this season, and our country isn't either.

Every Keys resident I spoke with said really 2 things. They estimate only 15% (at most) of the residents evacuated for Wilma, and there have been too man false alarms in the last few years.

Since 2004, the keys have been cleared out for Ivan, Jeanne, Rita, Katrina and Wilma and I think I am missing one storm.

How many places must also think there have been too many false alarms? Just about every hurricane prone city has had one in this active phase:

Houston last year with Rita
New Orleans countless times (now they have the opposite problem)
Tampa with Charley
Miami with Jeanne, Frances, and Ivan
...And so on...

So as we stand less than 4 weeks from the next season, there are more problems. Accuweather is out there predicting doom and gloom for the subscriber-heavy Northeast. An NHC false-alarm email has already sparked panic in New Orleans. Many places in SE Florida haven't recovered from cat 1 winds in Wilma, and there are countless blue-tarps in place in SW Florida from Charley 2 years ago. Perdido Key hasn't recovered from Ivan. Mississippi is still clearing debris from Katrina with many who were lost still yet to be recovered or identified in Louisiana. The levees around Lake Okeechobee, protecting residents and water supplies and ecosystems, are given a 17% chance of failing in any season.

And littered all over the Gulf and Eastern seaboard are communities that haven't experienced a direct hit in generations.

The NWS meteorologist at the seminar, Matt Strahan, has a very good point which he shared with me after things wound down Saturday. Most people think they know what a hurricane can do. Many more people than not, even in areas with direct hits, have not experienced the inner core of a strong or intense hurricane, but they think they have. This may be the most dangerous thing of all, and many, including Max Mayfield, believe that this type of belief system may have caused Camille to kill more people in 2005 than Katrina did.

Finally, there is a sense of disbelief taking over with the new season closing in. 17 storms? That number in any other season before this one would have caused panic. This season, outside of New Orleans, that number is considered GOOD NEWS.

Chances are we are going to get hit hard somewhere this year. Some will tell you they know where, which is of course, BS, but we are probably going to get hit again.

If it's Houston, we'll be wishing for 3 dollar a gallon gas prices. If it's a hurricane in Miami like 1926, the death toll from surge and evacuees who didn't leave could rival Katrina. If it is the NE US, well, we will look back on 2005 like we look at 2004 now. Bad, but not as bad as it was a year ago. And if it is the Keys, well, I've seen it, it will be bad beyond any current standard.

And we know that FEMA has yet to demonstrate they can respond to anything.

So, really what can be done?

All anyone reading this post can do is this. If you're reading this, you likely follow the tropics closely. Start talking to everyone you know about hurricanes. Discuss what you know about surge, about the inner core where the most destructive winds are, about the outlook for this coming season. Ask them about their plan. Help them find a place to go if they need to evacuate. Sign up to help with rumor control hotlines or help lines, every community has these and they need all of the help they can get. Talk them out of bad ideas like "riding it out" or "hurricane parties".

At the same time, be a model of preparation. Get your shutters or plywood now. Get your supplies ready before June 1st. Know where you are going to go if you have to leave. Don't try to ride it out on your own...etc.

We know the media won't help. But even if you talk to 2 extra people, and change the way they think about hurricanes, you've made a huge impact.

This is a bigger problem than any one person or organization or city can solve. Years of run-away real estate, poor building regulation and poorly advised and unsafe costal development combined with a very unlikely lull in activity has built this monster. We all can affect our sphere of influence however, and help prepare and protect the people we know and care for.

And given everything we're up against, that's the best we can do. Even if the country isn't ready, we can be.

MW

(edited to clean up some spelling errors)

[LaPlaceFF]

I was in my Wal-Mart today and I overhead a mother talking to her daughter as they were buying water. She was saying that we (her family) needs to stock up on water for the hurricane season.

[JTD]

Wow. Incredible post. Agree 100%

[Clint_TX]

Mike I've been reading you for years and this is by far your best post. You might want to consider trying to get on the op-ed pages of newspapers or making it a letter to the editor.

Clint

[CrazyC83]

It's so true! It's like we have set ourselves up for a catastrophe this year! People need to realize this can happen in their own areas!

How far inland should preparations be made in?

[MGC]

Excellent post....MGC

[boca]

Mike incredible post and quite true.

[CHRISTY]

Mike you are 100 % percent right this season is going to be another very active hurricane season,you guys on Storm2k do a wonderful job honestly besides my husband this site is the best thing thats ever happen to me i truly enjoy posting on here you learn something new everyday.As far as the 2006 hurricane season go's i truly also hope everyone has taken the time to prepare and a have a hurricane plan in place.you know its funny cause everyone has there own opinion on how active or what kind of setup were lookin at in 2006 but i can tell you guys something after surviveing HURRICANE ANDREW i learned alot of things,because thats how you have to be on life you have to learn from your mistakes and use them to make it into a positive situation for yourself...last season was truly incredible but its not how many hurricanes we have cause 2005 was something that to me does not happen very often to say the least,but to make my point this season might just endup with less number of tropical systems but if we have alot of them affect the united states this year may very well be worse than 2005.it doesnt take 20 some storms to have a bad year look at 1992 well you guys know what happen......christy

[SouthFloridawx]

Where would I sign up for rumor hotlines?

P.S. Great article MW and I always try to talk to people about hurricane season and see if they are ready. I always call all my friends in my area if I know a storm is heading my way even if i'm not on the best terms with them. I quickly go out and help anyone get ready by helping them put thier shutters/plywood up on thier windows and always recommend that they have pleanty of food and water for WHEN the power goes out. We all know that it will go out we just need to be prepared for when it does.

[SouthFloridawx]

As an aside, last year after wilma cruised on through south florida I was one of the only people prepared after the storm of all the people that I know. It was kind of rediculous cause I had like 5 gallons of water for the 3 of us. We had two coolers full of ice and frozen food kept in a cool location. We also had pleanty of snacks and also drinks besides water, like gatoraide and juices because it get really old drinking just water. I had a generator and 4 five gallon tanks of gas and a couple of 3 gallons of gas enough for the generator and car if needed for a few days. Eventually I drove over to naples to fill up cause I had a full tank of gas and it only takes about 3/8ths to drive there. We got a bite to eat stocked up at walmart and filled up the gas tanks and headed back over. We had a propane grill, chicken and beef from the coolers I had put in a cool dry place that kept for about 3 days. Anyways, my point is that eventhough it costs a little bit more to be totally ready, I was comfortable after the storm unlike thousands of people here standing in lines for food, water and gasoline cause they didn't get prepared. I know people are on limited budgets but, when the big one does happen people are going to wish they did stock up.

[Aslkahuna]

People on the coast need to prepare for all of the baddies we associate with landfalling hurricanes-how far inland do you need to prepare? Hurricane Hazel in 1954 brough high winds and severe flooding all of the way to Toronto Canada. Agnes brough severe flooding to Pennsylvania, Camille dropped 30 inches of rain in 6 hours in the mountains of western VA. Carla was a flood producing Tropical Storm in Oklahoma. Lester (an EPAC Storm) brought heavy rains and high winds to SE AZ. Basically, if a hurricane comes in and you are in the path of the decaying storm or its extratropical stage, you had best be prepared for some heavy weather in the form of flood producing rains and tornadoes.

Steve

[boca]

I have storm shutters to be installed late July early August. So I'm prepared for the second half of the season.

[Aslkahuna]

Well it's time for me to take an inventory of my emergency food supplies and water supplies to see what has t be replaced. Also need to fill one of the 5 gallon gas cans up. I have a propane camp stove with 30 days supply of gas bottles to go along with the 30 days supply of food and water. Also everything is packed and ready to go should I need to evacaute the house as my van is capable of being used to stay in. Here I'm not so much worried about hurricanes as I am earthquakes and terrorist attacks.

Steve

[terstorm1012]

I'll probably take inventory and start an emergency stock, however I'm more concerned about TMI blowing up then hurricanes.

Floods though, I've already decided to leave if the river here crests at 22 feet or higher, since I live right on it. I'll go downtown and stay at a hotel, it's higher up in elevation there.

[EDR1222]

Excellent post Mike. You make some very important points. One area that you touched upon is especially true. Coastal development has been and continues to be out of control here in Florida as well as many other areas along the U.S. coastline. Your right though, we cannot control it. Getting the word out and making sure we are as prepared as we can be is all that we can do.

[LaPlaceFF]

.... however I'm more concerned about TMI blowing up then hurricanes.....

TMI?????

[LaPlaceFF]

OH Three Mile Island.....DUH

[terstorm1012]

OH Three Mile Island.....DUH

yeppers, Three Mile Island.

[T'Bonz]

^
I got it. But I'm a Pennsylvania native.

As for evacuating, that is a problem. Look at the mess in Houston last year.

I live in S. Florida. It takes (under the best conditions), six hours to get to N. Florida. Now jam the major highways with everyone trying to head north. Scary.

Yes, there are some small not-as-well-known roads, which normally would be slower than the highways. I would try that. My only worry is that others would think like that and avoid the highways and hit 27 and then have that jam up.

Problem is, not enough ways out and we never get enough time to evacuate.

[dizzyfish]

Excellent post Mike!!!!!
I agree - you should send it as a letter to the editor to every major paper in Florida.
We have been stocking up for the last month or so. A little at a time is easier than trying to get it all at once. We have everything ready to go now I think except pulling the pups crate up from storage in the workshop.
I'll double and triple check my lists next weekend.

Dang - that reminds me - I need to finish the inventory. More pics to take.