Questions I have on a hurricane striking New York City

[JTD]

The idea of a significant hurricane hitting NYC is something that has intrigued me because it's something I hope never happens but worry will.

Anyway, my questions are:

1. What types of steering currents would be needed for a direct hit on NYC?
2. How much lead-time would there be? Would the NHC be able to pinpoint NYC as a landfall point days in advance the way they did New Orleans for Katrina?
3. Would we see a New Orleans style evacuation of NYC? Are city, state and federal emergency management officials aware that vertical evacuations are not a good idea?
4. What is the maximum strength that a storm is likely to have when it hits NYC. What would the MPI be? Would it be possible for the trough sending a cane towards NYC to intensify the storm the way troughs did Wilma and Charley. I know I'm probably being over-simplistic to say that the troughs strengthened Wilma and Charley?
5. Considering how close NYC is to NJ, CT, etc., a major cane in NYC would cause a catastrophe for 3 or 4 states right?
6. What would the economic affects be? How close is Wall Street, Times Square etc to the area in NYC that would take the brunt of the storm?
7. What is a realistic death and damage toll?
8. What storm surge values are we looking at?

Thanks.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

1. a trough oriented north-south located just west of nyc, bermuda high pressure with ridge axis (Imagine a circle...the center is the center of the ridge, the radius extends out towards an "axis", and the edge of the circle, the curved part, is where the axis shoots out to, which is at the outer end of the radius), and the storm travels clockwise around this ridge, with the extent of the ridge or the axis located close to the longitude of nyc and a steering around the high steering storm into nyc along with the aid of the previous trough
2. Little lead time...2-3 days...because once a storm gets that far north, the trough that allowed it to do so has speed up the storms forward motion....so storm is moving so fast there is little time for people to evacuate
3. There would be large scale evacuations....vertical evacuations being a bad idea if high winds rip apart glass buildings and weak buildings
4. Max Strength- category 3, maybe higher...sea surfacte temps are cooler and shear may prevent further strenghtening; storm may intensify if trough somehow helps move air on the periphery of the storm away..helping to ventilate storm by allowing air inside to work outwards- aiding in intensification...but if trough impacts the core as opposed to just the periphery...the inner ciruclation will be disrupted and weakening of the storm will result
5. Yes, especially along coastal and low-lying areas
6. Economic catastrophe...areas close to coast and rivers destroyed...im not sure about where wall street and times square are though in relation to coast
7. Damage...Several Hundred Billion
Death...very high total...if little or no evacuation time...then several thousand
8. 15-25 ft I have heard-- I am not sure...but certainly catastrophic surge.

[CHRISTY]

i think the odds of this happening are slim!

ps!its happen before thats for sure....

[SamSagnella]

The NYC Office of EM has a great page on the city's hurricane preparedness and past history with storms. Having lived near NYC for practically my entire life, I can say that there have been several high-profile news stories in the past year raising public awareness. If a strong hurricane made landfall in northern New Jersey (worst-cast scenario), water would cover portions of Lower Manhattan, including Wall St. I would have to imagine that the subway system would devastated, which would be a huge blow to the city in and of itself.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/readynewyork/hazard_hurricane.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Another thing to keep in mind is that any storm that could make it that far North, and still be a force to fear would probably be a large sprawling system to begin with. A small system, even if strong, would likely not survive the trip, and still be a strong system. A large storm would only become more so as it interacted with the trough, and started undergoing extratropical transition. The wind field would be spreading out for sure, especially the area of gale to storm force wind coverage. I also agree with SamSagnella that a New Jersey landfall would be the worse, and any landfall near NYC at high tide would also be a disaster.

[Jim Cantore]

I think even worse is if a upper level low in the great lakes and the bermuda high wandering into the Grand Banks steering a large, intense Hurricane into the central Jersey shore at a high rate of speed. NYC would get a devestating surge.

[Stephanie]

NYC would be in the worst quadrant - the NE, if there's a NJ landfall, especially closer to the northern part of the state.

Manhatten is the only island in the "city" of NY. Brooklyn and Queens are located on Long Island. They're all at sea level or perhaps slightly above. There would be significant flooding due to the surge. I'm sure that the Lincoln, Holland and Midtown tunnels would be innundated with water and perhaps not be usable for quite sometime. The Verrazano Narrrows bridge that links Staten Island to Brooklyn is a double-decker. I don't know what level winds it can hold up under. It would be devastating.

[Derek Ortt]

Do not count on anything more than 18 hours of lead time, as the hurricnae would likely be moving in excess of 40-50KT

Do not think we will see anything higher than 105KT, which was the landfall intensity of the Long Island Express Hurricane (for the best QG intensification, like what Michael underwent, the storm really needs to be heading to the NE, meaning Canada could conceivably see a stronger hurricane due to QG intensifictaion)

That said, the city, and the entire USA will suffer greatly from a major hurricane in NYC. The economic impact would be far greater than Katrina, and the death toll, as I said earlier, could reach levels similar to Sobibor, due to the little adequate lead time, some of which would occur during nighttime hours, plus the gridlock and people trapped in their cars on the roads

[Scorpion]

People should just stay in their apartments and go into an interior room or hallway. This would help minimize deaths.

[Jim Cantore]

The subway would be finished

[terstorm1012]

T
3. Would we see a New Orleans style evacuation of NYC? Are city, state and federal emergency management officials aware that vertical evacuations are not a good idea?

5. Considering how close NYC is to NJ, CT, etc., a major cane in NYC would cause a catastrophe for 3 or 4 states right?

Thanks.

Answer for 3, as far as I'm aware, New York State DOT does not have a contraflow plan for the 5 boroughs and Long Island. If there were one, logically I think they'd send people off of Long Island first over the Throngs Neck Bridge, or over the 678 bridge, then north and east into CT. Staten Island would have to contraflow into New Jersey. All southward facing coasts would definately need to be evacuated. As there'd be at least 2 million and probably a lot more, public transit would have to be utilized otherwise there will be gridlock. NJ and NY both used transit to evacuate people during Floyd in 1999.

New Jersey, at least from what I've read in several newspapers and other industry papers over the last few years, will contraflow away from Shore points toward Philadelphia. I do know for a fact that the Atlantic City Expressway will be reversed in one direction toward Philadelphia. NJ DOT's website is down as I write this, so I'll have to look it up when their site is up and running. Some personal advice is not to stay in a hotel near Philly Int'l Airport if you're going to evac to Philadelphia, because the airport is only a few feet above sea level and we DO get surge on occasion in Philadelphia...the Delaware is tidally influenced to Trenton.

In Pennsylvania I can tell you that there are a number of studies underway including one that is supposed to examine what's going on in our neighboring states, as a big hurricane would probably send us traffic from Delaware, New Jersey, and New York, and probably Maryland too. I'll let you all know what they conclude (since I do work for the org that's doing the study )

Given the traffic chaos that will occur I really would advise anyone who lives in NYC to have several alternate plans in place if they live in an evacuation zone and can't get out of the city or off of Long Island, and to find a place that is at least 40 feet above sea level and is solidly built. I believe that they will discourage people from using the tunnels or they may block those routes out all together as they did during the 9/11 Attacks, sending people over the bridges into New Jersey or also upnorth into New York.

It would also help that if you DON'T live in an evac zone to stay put with your supplies and not add to the chaos. NYC emergency Management has maps of areas that need to be evacuated in case of a storm...online and you can call and ask for them... and the last time I stayed in NYC in 2000 the maps were in the phone books. NYC Emergency Management really would prefer that if you're not in an Evac zone to stay put with several days of supplies. We also all saw what happened in Houston during Rita where EVERYONE left and it wasn't entirely necessary for every single last Houstonian to leave. Know your zones, know your elevation and know your ways out and your plans and BE PREPARED!!!!

As an aside on evacuation, the public has no excuse, IMO, because Emergency Management in NYC has been getting prepared for this for years. There's only so much handholding government officials can do.

NJ Evac Routes: http://www.nj.gov/njoem/opb_evacuation_maps.html
NYC Evac Zones for Coastal Storms: http://nyc.gov/html/oem/html/emols/emols.html

as for 5, depending on the size and strength of the storm, and forward motion and direction, the storm would cause significant damage well inland across New York state, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, CT, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and probably the rest of New England, especially if it's a slower moving storm or wet storm, or merges with a non-tropical system, like Agnes in 1972. If it comes in at high tide and makes landfall at Sandy Hook NJ surge could go up the Hudson quite a ways...the Hudson is tidally-influenced to Troy, NY (that's north of Albany). I have no idea if tidal flooding can extend that far north but it is something to keep in mind.

as for 6: Times Square, no (though the subway beneath it would flood) as Times Square is 50+ft above sea level. Wall Street, yes, that would flood, as it did during the 1821 storm.

Sorry for the long post...I had a lot of information to put out there.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

[quote="Derek Ortt"(for the best QG intensification, like what Michael underwent, the storm really needs to be heading to the NE, meaning Canada could conceivably see a stronger hurricane due to QG intensifictaion)[/quote]

I was going to actually bring up Michael's cat 2 landfall in Newfoundland in 2000 (many circumstances of which, such as strengthening over cold water, I still find hand to fathom even though I saw it with my own eyes). Though I agree that such a situation would be more of an Eastern New England (SE Mass, Main, New Brunswick, and of course Nova Scotia) issue, than a New York/New Jersey problem, due to the direction of travel needed for such an interaction to most likely occur.

[terstorm1012]

found another site for New Yorkers to educate themselves.
http://www.protectingnewyork.org/?PFID=21&PID=44

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree with Terstorm1012. An Agnes 1972 like setup would be the worst of all. A large strong (at least at landfall) hurricane merging with a low into a massive baroclinic storm, and then slowing down (say being held in place by that Block that has lasted all Winter and Spring thus far) would be a nightmare. It would just rain and blow itself out over New England for three or four days.

[wxwatcher91]

Im actually doing a report (due tomorrow) on the possibility of a NYC landfall.
here's something I found someone else did on the topic: http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbi ... sld001.htm

[terstorm1012]

I agree with Terstorm1012. An Agnes 1972 like setup would be the worst of all. A large strong (at least at landfall) hurricane merging with a low into a massive baroclinic storm, and then slowing down (say being held in place by that Block that has lasted all Winter and Spring thus far) would be a nightmare. It would just rain and blow itself out over New England for three or four days.

The river I live on, the Susquehanna, crested at 34 feet during Agnes, normally it's at 5 feet. They still talk about it as if it were yesterday and no other flood has even come remotely close, not even Ivan's flood two years ago.

I tell ya I would leave if we had an Agnes-like set up. I'm in a highrise and well above any flood stage, but it's not worth getting stranded for days as the water swirls around my building.

[Jim Cantore]

Im actually doing a report (due tomorrow) on the possibility of a NYC landfall.
here's something I found someone else did on the topic: http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbi ... sld001.htm

Very nicely done

[wxmann_91]

I just thought of this, but what would happen if a Cat 3 phases with a strong negative tilt trough right over the area, ala Hazel in 1954?

[terstorm1012]

I just thought of this, but what would happen if a Cat 3 phases with a strong negative tilt trough right over the area, ala Hazel in 1954?

I think the depiction of "It could Happen Tomorrow" on the weather channel was fairly accurate...for that depiction.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

My worse nightmare


A lot of models showed Wilma doing this for Eastern New England last year, thank goodness it didn't.