EPAC Low

[NONAME]

This is scatter strong convection near the area Beta form last year looks like convection is increasing and has a little spin to it I don't think shear is terrible high there so it could cause some nice convection but Don't think it will do much right now. If it persists which is unlikely it may well do something ocean is definitely warm there. It doesn't look bad though for now on satellite

From NHC Discussion at 805am may 7, 2006
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH E CENTRAL CUBA TO
NEAR 15N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. A SUBTROPICAL
JET CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COSTA
RICA/PANAMA BORDER TO 16N75W TO BEYOND 24N56W. SW WINDS ARE
STRONGEST OVER/NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ARE ESTIMATED IN THE
60-70 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS
THE SE CARIBBEAN. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
CENTERED NEAR 13.5N78.5W.[/code]

[Hyperstorm]

An area of high pressure in the upper levels is forecast to develop in the SW Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours and if that disturbance persists we may have something a little more interesting. However, the steering winds should move it over Central America by tomorrow. That being said, it will be something to monitor with the improving atmospheric conditions in case it (unexpectedly) stalls offshore.

84*...

[NONAME]

If not it could be something in the eastern Pacific or western pacific or indian ocean or wait that would take it back to the atlantic if it never devlops or disapates.

[Weatherfreak000]

Ummmm.....okay...

[SouthFloridawx]

Here are some of the latest conditions in that area.









EDIT: I forgot to add the relative vorticity.

[Weatherfreak000]

It's moving too fast and it's jsut scattered convection.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Lets give it a chance MAYBE something will come out of it.

[Ivan14]

Maybe it will do something only time will tell.

[Weatherfreak000]

But it won't


You guys keep on hoping though.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Looking at the shear map it has a 50% chance of forming, the shear level is very low in that level.

[Weatherfreak000]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Looking at the shear map it has a 50% chance of forming, the shear level is very low in that level.

True, but the convection doesn't have a center it's just scattered convection and it's moving too fast.

[MiamiensisWx]

Right now, I think we should wait on this. I think development chances are, at least at the moment, very low. A circulation has yet to become better established, blobs like this in that general location that don't develop - at least into a tropical storm - are fairly typical this time of year, and shear is quite high just to the north of it, especially on the northern edge of the convection.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well no one here is saying it is going to develope. They are just blob watching and no one has forecasted an area of low pressure to form there. There is low shear, vorticity and high pressure moving into the area. I am watching gfs and the eastern pacific because it's getting to be that time of year for storms to develope there. The waters are boiling there and shear is low maybe we'll have something in that area in a few days.

[Opal storm]

But it won't


You guys keep on hoping though.

I agree,more than likely this is nothing.But we are pretty close to the start of the season so I will be keeping an eye on this anyway.

[no advance]

Very interesting. This could be a blessing for Fl. if it does move north. Is it a stalled out trough?

[MiamiensisWx]

Well no one here is saying it is going to develope. They are just blob watching and no one has forecasted an area of low pressure to form there. There is low shear, vorticity and high pressure moving into the area. I am watching gfs and the eastern pacific because it's getting to be that time of year for storms to develope there. The waters are boiling there and shear is low maybe we'll have something in that area in a few days.

Are you upset at me? Just curious.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well no one here is saying it is going to develope. They are just blob watching and no one has forecasted an area of low pressure to form there. There is low shear, vorticity and high pressure moving into the area. I am watching gfs and the eastern pacific because it's getting to be that time of year for storms to develope there. The waters are boiling there and shear is low maybe we'll have something in that area in a few days.

Are you upset at me? Just curious.

No I didn't say that. Why do you think I would be upset with you? Blob watching is fairly common here in storm2k.

[Weatherfreak000]

So guys this worked out right?

[SouthFloridawx]

So guys this worked out right?

What's with the sarcasm?

[CHRISTY]

THIS WENT....