SKETCHES OF A CATASTROPHE....PLEASE READ.

[CHRISTY]

Hey guys this article came out today In the Miami Herald....once i read the full article it actually sent chills down my back....please take to read the article.The article comes with SOUTHFLORIDA STORM SURGE animations and much more.

One day, South Florida will be struck by a much more ferocious hurricane than those that hit last year - and experts predict potentially catasrophic results.



HERE'S THE LINK...

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/14518105.htm


LEAVE COMMENTS!

[CHRISTY]

these are some great stormsurge animations for SOUTHFLORIDA!We have been lucky for long time...

[jdray]

But it also shows just how lucky south florida is with regards to lower storm surges than the rest of the state.

feel fortunate there Christy, those same storms with throw 15+ foot surges into downtown Jacksonville, while only doing 7-10 feet near Biscayne Bay

[Scorpion]

Especially a large-core hurricane similar to Katrina or Floyd. Major hurricane winds from central Palm Beach County down to north Miami.

[Derek Ortt]

we will never see sustained major hurricane winds from Miami to Palm beach in a continuous line, since the major hurricane winds are found in very small streaks

we could see sustained hurricane force again, though, as we saw with Wilma

[Lindaloo]

South Florida was ALREADY hit by a major CAT5 hurricane.

[Scorpion]

South Florida was ALREADY hit by a major CAT5 hurricane.

Andrew was very compact and hit a far-less populated and developed area.

[Lindaloo]

Still a major for South Florida.

Homestead was a less popluated area?

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/14520617.htm

what a joke the new building code is. WHY DO WE NOT HAVE THE CAYMAN CODE?

A structure only has to survive gusts to 140? Wilma produced higher gusts than that at the tops of the high rises. This code is laughable. I'd feel more comfortable in the pre-Andrew structures, which were unfairly criticized for being poorly build, when they only failed under SUSTAINED winds over 140 m.p.h.

[Lindaloo]

I agree Derek.

[Derek Ortt]

yeah. Homestead was so unpopulated that it only destroyed 80,000 homes and businesses

[spinfan4eva]

But it also shows just how lucky south florida is with regards to lower storm surges than the rest of the state.

feel fortunate there Christy, those same storms with throw 15+ foot surges into downtown Jacksonville, while only doing 7-10 feet near Biscayne Bay

Here is a link to a story ran back in december about what the storm surge in Jax would be in a cat 4 or 5 storm. http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/loca ... ryid=48261
In reallity, it is very hard, though possible, for any hurricane to hit Jacksonville cause we're like a large inlet. How many hurricanes after beginning the turn more north, turn back west like Dora did? It would also be really hard for a hurricane of cat 4 or 5 intensity to make it to jacksonville cause we are so far north and the chances of one making it to our latitude at that intensity are slim at best. Im sure New york city has the same surge maps-that is surge maps for up to cat 5 and NYC will never be hit by a cat 5.

[Evil Jeremy]

we are doomed.

[clfenwi]

From the article

First, scientists say the destructive power of a hurricane increases five-fold each time it moves one step up in category. Thus, Katrina2 could be expected to deliver 10 times more damage to South Florida than the real Katrina inflicted and Wilma2 could be expected to deliver 10 to 15 times the damage wrought by the real Wilma.

So, "Katrina2" could be expected to deliver 750 billion to 1.25 trillion dollars of damage? Discuss.

LATER: Never mind. In each case they are talking about the damage relative to the damage done to South Florida by the storm, not relative to (MS/LA). That didn't quite process with me the first time around.

[Lindaloo]

yeah. Homestead was so unpopulated that it only destroyed 80,000 homes and businesses

I picked up on the sarcasm. lol. I thought that area had quite a bit if structural damage. Thanks for verifying that.

[hookemfins]

But it also shows just how lucky south florida is with regards to lower storm surges than the rest of the state.

feel fortunate there Christy, those same storms with throw 15+ foot surges into downtown Jacksonville, while only doing 7-10 feet near Biscayne Bay

Those surge numbers were if Katrina were to hit the same area. However Andrew's storm surge was much higher than what was posted in the Herald. Andrew's surge was 17' and at my Parents house 16' a mile south of 17' surge.

A structure only has to survive gusts to 140? Wilma produced higher gusts than that at the tops of the high rises. This code is laughable. I'd feel more comfortable in the pre-Andrew structures, which were unfairly criticized for being poorly build, when they only failed under SUSTAINED winds over 140 m.p.h.

I remember when I was in the A/C business and I had a set of plans to be reviewed by Dade County Building and Zoning. Pre Andrew A/C units had to be secured by winds upto 125 mph. I questioned them about what a low number that is. 140 mph is better but should be a little higher.

I perfer the post Andrew South Florida Building Code as opposed to the present Florida Building code.

[milankovitch]

yeah. Homestead was so unpopulated that it only destroyed 80,000 homes and businesses

Do you have a link? Because I looked up the population of Homestead and according to the 1990 census it was 27,000. Does the 80,000 figure include unincorporated areas or surrounding towns?

[stormtruth]

yeah. Homestead was so unpopulated that it only destroyed 80,000 homes and businesses

I picked up on the sarcasm. lol. I thought that area had quite a bit if structural damage. Thanks for verifying that.

Katrina 2 would impact a much larger area I think is the point. You and Ortt are talking about a Cat 5 but a much smaller area.

[stormtruth]

The number of housing units destroyed (made uninhabitable and beyond economically-justified repair) by Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was estimated at over 28,000.

http://www.nahb.org/news_details.aspx?newsID=1572

[Derek Ortt]

remember, Andrew also leveled Florida City, Cutler Ridge, and Leisure City. Not to mention a 10 foot surge at Coconut Grove