FWIW- Joe B. chimes in about 2006 season in Houston

[mtm4319]

Here's an objective analysis of the Katrina forecasts from Joe from last year:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/verification_katrina.htm

You should see the Ophelia numbers...

MW

This is interesting, but Katrina was nowhere near 145 knots at Buras like this page says.

[MWatkins]

Here's an objective analysis of the Katrina forecasts from Joe from last year:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/verification_katrina.htm

You should see the Ophelia numbers...

MW

This is interesting, but Katrina was nowhere near 145 knots at Buras like this page says.

Yes, that is correct. I had help with the maps (thought I had footnoted that on the page but I had to reupload when I reformatted the site, so I probably didn't upload the right page).

I don't have access to the graphics program used to create the map...however...the verification statistics use the correct data...the map display is in error and I will upload a footnoted page this evening.

Thanks for reading.

MW

Update: After further review, it is there in big red letters on the verification home page. I am going go ahead and note on the 3 subsequent pages (forecasts 2,3 and 4) to avoid any further confusion. Thanks again.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow, Accuweather.....really....really was off on katrina. However, I think I speak for many when I say that's not too surprising.

[Jim Cantore]

My one problem with this is that is refers to New Orleans getting the worst of Katrina, Areas like Buras Louisiana and Bay Saint Louis Mississippi hold that one.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just so everybody knows...the track prediction given by Joe Bastardi is different than the track prediction given by Accuweather. His ideas are usually different than what accuweather is officially forecasting.

[Jim Cantore]

Just so everybody knows...the track prediction given by Joe Bastardi is different than the track prediction given by Accuweather. His ideas are usually different than what accuweather is officially forecasting.

Which I kinda like because, well I stray from official forcasts by looking at computer models and many sources and of course patterns and forming my own forcast.

[Pearl River]

When Joe changed his forecast at 3:00 pm on Friday for a hit along the LA/MS coast, he pegged the 2nd landfall at the mouth of the Pearl River.

[Jim Cantore]

I've told this to people, no matter how many models you have, no matter how much you know, Hurricane Forcasting is like casino gambling.

[Ivan14]

Yup so true no one knows where a hurricane will exactly hit. We have an Idea of the landfall area but not where exact center will make landfall.

[Cat5survivor]

PLEASE DONT TALK BAD ABOUT ME!!

[johngaltfla]

I do not find his forecast unreasonable, nor shocking. Keep in mind, everyone chuckled at the prospects of 2005 being as bad as or worse than 2004.

Those of us in Florida are no longer chuckling. And with the SSTs starting to warm up, the forecasts I pay strict attention to for now is the position of the Bermuda high.

[Pearl River]

I did not say he knew exactly where Katrina was going to hit, no one knew, but he did peg the 2nd gulf Coast landfall. Basically for anyone to hit it right would be a S.W.A.G. (Scientific Wild A$$ed Guess).

[deltadog03]

its funny....you guys all bash him when he is wrong but, many give no credit when he is right. I don't agree with some of the stuff he says but, he is a pretty good at picking patterns and signals out for different things. He WAS one of the first to say that Katrina would come close to the big easy.

[LarryWx]

Here's an objective analysis of the Katrina forecasts from Joe from last year:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/verification_katrina.htm

You should see the Ophelia numbers...

MW

According to my records:
1) At one time, he had Ophelia hitting New Orleans.
2) At one time, he had Katrina going up the eastern seaboard in a Donna-like manner.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's an objective analysis of the Katrina forecasts from Joe from last year:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/verification_katrina.htm

You should see the Ophelia numbers...

MW

According to my records:
1) At one time, he had Ophelia hitting New Orleans.
2) At one time, he had Katrina going up the eastern seaboard in a Donna-like manner.

He never officially said that those storms were going to play out like that...he actually just gave those ideas as possibilities. Also, these ideas were given in the storms early days (when the NHC also had no idea where the system was going). He usually changed his tune within a few hours or days to a much better forecast.

[MWatkins]

Here's an objective analysis of the Katrina forecasts from Joe from last year:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/verification_katrina.htm

You should see the Ophelia numbers...

MW

According to my records:
1) At one time, he had Ophelia hitting New Orleans.
2) At one time, he had Katrina going up the eastern seaboard in a Donna-like manner.

He never officially said that those storms were going to play out like that...he actually just gave those ideas as possibilities. Also, these ideas were given in the storms early days (when the NHC also had no idea where the system was going). He usually changed his tune within a few hours or days to a much better forecast.

Actually...in the spirit of fairness...he did produce a track forecast of Ophelia into the Gulf. I'll post the data if I get a chance later today...

MW

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's an objective analysis of the Katrina forecasts from Joe from last year:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/verification_katrina.htm

You should see the Ophelia numbers...

MW

According to my records:
1) At one time, he had Ophelia hitting New Orleans.
2) At one time, he had Katrina going up the eastern seaboard in a Donna-like manner.

He never officially said that those storms were going to play out like that...he actually just gave those ideas as possibilities. Also, these ideas were given in the storms early days (when the NHC also had no idea where the system was going). He usually changed his tune within a few hours or days to a much better forecast.

Actually...in the spirit of fairness...he did produce a track forecast of Ophelia into the Gulf. I'll post the data if I get a chance later today...

MW

yes, but the NHC also had a similar forecast for Ophelia during the early stages. Nobody really knew what Ophelia was going to do until after it happened.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here's an objective analysis of the Katrina forecasts from Joe from last year:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/verification_katrina.htm

You should see the Ophelia numbers...

MW

According to my records:
1) At one time, he had Ophelia hitting New Orleans.
2) At one time, he had Katrina going up the eastern seaboard in a Donna-like manner.

He never officially said that those storms were going to play out like that...he actually just gave those ideas as possibilities. Also, these ideas were given in the storms early days (when the NHC also had no idea where the system was going). He usually changed his tune within a few hours or days to a much better forecast.

Actually...in the spirit of fairness...he did produce a track forecast of Ophelia into the Gulf. I'll post the data if I get a chance later today...

MW

yes, but the NHC also had a similar forecast for Ophelia during the early stages. Nobody really knew what Ophelia was going to do until after it happened.

The NHC never had a similar forecast for Ophelia to get into the Gulf. I provided a link to the NHC archives of Hurricane Ophelia. Every single forecast advisory package is listed on that site. At the top of the page, please click on the "Graphics Archive" blue link to see every single forecast track graphic issued by the NHC for Ophelia and you will see they never forecast Ophelia to even come close to the Gulf. Although the NHC was not perfect on the forecast, they were much more consistent and accurate.

<RICKY>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/OPHELIA.shtml?

[SouthFloridawx]

That is correct the nhc did not forecast for Ophelia to go into the gulf of mexico. Sometimes I wonder if accuweather puts out forecasts that attract attention to thier website in order to gain more subscribers.

[vacanechaser]

its funny....you guys all bash him when he is wrong but, many give no credit when he is right. I don't agree with some of the stuff he says but, he is a pretty good at picking patterns and signals out for different things. He WAS one of the first to say that Katrina would come close to the big easy.

agree 100%... no matter how things work out, he will be bashed for something... i hate some of the stuff he says and does myself... but lets just see what happens... i also agree with the comment about everyone laughed at the idea that 2005 would be as bad as it was... so for his forecast, or whatever you want to call it for 2006, it is not out of the question... sure i will be bashed for taking up for it now... lol

seems alot of folks got angery and turned aginst him and started bashing him when the bill was being talked about last year to roll up the NWS products... just my opinion...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team