FWIW- Joe B. chimes in about 2006 season in Houston

[hurricanetrack]

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews ... on=article

Read it and we shall see.........

[cycloneye]

Ok folks.I know that this thread will get many replies as Joe Bastardi is mentioned here.If you are going to replie do it with respect.

[CHRISTY]

AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi predicted one tropical storm and five hurricanes -- at least three at Category 3 or worse -- will slam into the nation's shores between now and late November, the unofficial end of the season... OK SO WAIT HE'S PREDICTING 3 POSSIBLE MAJOR HURRICANES TO SLAM INTO THE U.S.!THAT RIGHT THERE COULD BE WORSE THEN 2005 IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN OF COURSE.

Pasch warned that the "news will not be good" when his organization releases its forecasts within the next few weeks.OK SO IS THIS A HEAD'S FROM RICHARD PASCH THAT NEWS FORM THE (NHC) THAT WILL BE COMING OUT WILL NOT BE GOOD IN THE COMING WEEKS?SOUNDS LIKE THAT TO ME.

[Air Force Met]

Well...we do know the article was in error: It was not the deadliest hurricane season ever...not even for the Gulf coast.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm starting to wonder about this guy if he happens to have interests in the futures market.....

I'd also like to know if he actually quoted that "at least three at Category 3 or worse -- will slam into the nation's shores between now and late November, the unofficial end of the season."

With all due respect to Mr. Bastardi, to make a prediction like that is quite bold....

[brunota2003]

Uh...last I checked...November 30 is the last OFFICIAL day...so where is this "unofficial" coming from? For respect...I agree...very bold...

[Extremeweatherguy]

why is that bold? In 2004 we had Ivan, Jeanne and Charley all making landfall at major hurricane status...and in 2005 we had Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma all making landfall at major hurricane status. If we have managed 3+ the last two years, than I would think that there is a good chance of it happening again this year.

[MWatkins]

Here's an objective analysis of the Katrina forecasts from Joe from last year:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/verification_katrina.htm

You should see the Ophelia numbers...

MW

[Stratosphere747]

Uh...last I checked...November 30 is the last OFFICIAL day...so where is this "unofficial" coming from? For respect...I agree...very bold...

Not sure if you are responding to my post, but I was asking if he actually quoted the above statement. It has nothing to do about November 30 being the last OFFICIAL day......

[CHRISTY]

[brunota2003]

Uh...last I checked...November 30 is the last OFFICIAL day...so where is this "unofficial" coming from? For respect...I agree...very bold...

Not sure if you are responding to my post, but I was asking if he actually quoted the above statement. It has nothing to do about November 30 being the last OFFICIAL day......

I know...but in the article it says

Speaking to a room packed with energy executives in Houston, AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi predicted one tropical storm and five hurricanes -- at least three at Category 3 or worse -- will slam into the nation's shores between now and late November, the unofficial end of the season.

I just had to say something about that...and will he stop putting my area under high risk already? NC has seen enough...no more please...

[CHRISTY]

PLEASE DONT TALK BAD ABOUT ME!!

[Stratosphere747]

No problem brunota...

Just looking for clarification that Bastardi actually said this, or if it was reported and was arranged to make it look as this is what he specifically said.

I'm not aware if Joe B. has made a official forecast, as of now.

[SouthFloridawx]

Bastardi last August accurately predicted New Orleans would bear the brunt of Hurricane Katrina as it grew to a top-level Category 5 storm.

Not to beat a dead horse or anything but, I have just a couple of complaints on the wording of that sentence. All due respect to New Orleans as last years events were very tragic and all due to the leavees breaching and the city flooding. I was not aware that New Orleans did bear the brunt of Katrina. Please correct me if I am wrong as I am not allowed to bash anyone but, I thought the eastern part of louisiana and MGC bore the brunt of hurricane Katrina on that fateful day of August 29th of 2005? Please correct me if I am wrong. I am not bashing anyone.

[Aslkahuna]

SouthFlorida, you are correct in that eastern LA and SW MS Coast took the brunt of Katrina as the eyewall went directly over those areas. However, the media seems to have totally forgotten those areas and focuses only on NOLA. It's a simple matter of the American people being poorly served (actually not served at all) by those we put our trust in to keep us informed.

Steve

[wxman57]

JB also was adamant that Dennis would hit New Orleans as well, and Rita would hit Houston, even after Wednesday when Rita began making the NW turn toward Sabine Pass.

Now I do agree that the pattern we're in is very similar to the 1940s through the 1960s. During that period, the area from Florida through the Carolinas was just POUNDED by major hurricanes. So there's definitely an elevated risk of a major hurricane landfall in Florida north through the Carolinas over the next decade or two. As the NaO goes more positive and the Bermuda High strengthens in years to come, the average number of hurricanes should drop to between 11-13, higher than the 1940s-1960s because the NHC now names systems without circulation centers and systems that aren't really tropical. There's only a slight correlation between increased activity in the Gulf of Mexico with this pattern. But longer-tracked major hurricanes driven westward through the Caribbean could well target the western Gulf (Texas) in 2006 and years to follow.

[vbhoutex]

As far as I know, Phillip Klotzbach was at this same conference also. Wondering why he was not mentioned as I am sure he had something to say. Could it be, and this is just speculation since I do not know what he said, that what he did say didn't fit the agenda of the writer? So far CSU's predictions have been on the conservative side.

[wxman57]

As far as I know, Phillip Klotzbach was at this same conference also. Wondering why he was not mentioned as I am sure he had something to say. Could it be, and this is just speculation since I do not know what he said, that what he did say didn't fit the agenda of the writer? So far CSU's predictions have been on the conservative side.

I didn't see Phil at the OTC. I did run into him a number of times at the AMS conference in Monterrey the week before. Sat next to him at breakfast one morning. Sharp kid. Graduated college at 19 and is now getting his PhD.

[hurricanetrack]

It is time for me to get that wind/hail insurance. Not sure about an increased threat from HAIL from hurricanes, but the wind, you bet. It would be quite the irony for my house to be rolled up in a hurricane and me not to have adequate insurance coverage. Time to call Nationwide and pay the piper.

[vbhoutex]

As far as I know, Phillip Klotzbach was at this same conference also. Wondering why he was not mentioned as I am sure he had something to say. Could it be, and this is just speculation since I do not know what he said, that what he did say didn't fit the agenda of the writer? So far CSU's predictions have been on the conservative side.

I didn't see Phil at the OTC. I did run into him a number of times at the AMS conference in Monterrey the week before. Sat next to him at breakfast one morning. Sharp kid. Graduated college at 19 and is now getting his PhD.

Yep, he is now 27, was home schooled, out of high school at 15, etc. He is supposed to get his PhD this winter if I remember correctly.