Theo's AstroMet 2006 Hurricane & Tropical Storm Forecast

[Theo]

Theo.....this was really cool. I'm also going to save it as a word file and link it up with my Outlook Calender.

You've hit on some things that are really interesting and should be studied more.

do you have an email list?

No, not yet. But, if you have questions, you can email me. Thanks.

[angelwing]

Thank you very much for the information Theo, I find it very interesting!

[milankovitch]

This definitely needs a disclaimer. It is the opinion of an individual who I has little or no experience in meteorology. Please adhere ot the rules even the ones that were put out last year regarding posts.

Any moderator have an opinion on this (posting the S2K disclaimer for something as left field as this).

Yes it does. Lunar effects on the atmosphere are at best being confused or exaggerated. The rest of this is superstition. When was the last time anyone remembers the allignment of the planets being mentioned in a NHC disco.

[Theo]

This definitely needs a disclaimer. It is the opinion of an individual who I has little or no experience in meteorology. Please adhere ot the rules even the ones that were put out last year regarding posts.

Any moderator have an opinion on this (posting the S2K disclaimer for something as left field as this).

Yes it does. Lunar effects on the atmosphere are at best being confused or exaggerated. The rest of this is superstition. When was the last time anyone remembers the allignment of the planets being mentioned in a NHC disco.

I respectfully disagree. I am an expert astrometeorologist with plenty of meterological experience. Lunar effects on the atmosphere are proven, recorded, and noted over millenia. Conventional meteorologists do not put out long-range forecasts which is the reason the planets, Sun, or Moon are not mentioned in NHC disco - which, by the way, reflects "effects" and not the "causes" of earthly weather. This is why it is not mentioned. In Astrometeorology and space weather, Solar, and Lunar events are a standard part of forecasts.

[Theo]

Thank you very much for the information Theo, I find it very interesting!

You're welcome.

[Theo]

Probably should have taken the time to go sequentially through the post...there are so many gems...like this:

According to my calculations, Gulf waters will reach near 80 degrees this month, and increase dramatically in May & June. Observations of gulf water temperatures should be taken now (mid-April) to confirm these astromet findings.

Gulf waters reach "near 80 degrees" EVERY April.

And in a stunning newsflash, oh Master of the Obvious, Gulf temperatures increas in May and June. Every year.

I'm anxiously awaiting your forecasts for the sun to rise in the east tomorrow, and for temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere to start getting cooler around the end of September this year, not warming again till late February/Early March of 2007 - all though the magic of "Astrometeorology."

Let's not get silly, please. If you are able to produce a hurricane forecast with specific dates as I have, then, by all means, please, do so. I have. You will need to learn some basics though, meaning that you should always be aware of space conditions. You can start here - http://www.spaceweather.com - and study what is happening with the weather in space, and how it directly impacts our planet. Start with the Sun, and then the Moon, and then the planets.

You can study the Moon here - http://www.iol.ie/~geniet/eng/moonperb.htm

The Sun regulates the season - and we already know what season is ahead, this is not a mystery, so I do not understand your reference in your above post, since knowing the "season" is standard in any forecasting that will take place. The Moon is the functional element, and critical to timing unstable atmospheric conditions during any season - winter, spring, summer, and fall. The hard part is naming specific dates, which I have done. However, as I've said, you are welcome to post your own forecast for the upcoming hurricane, and tropical storm season.

[jusforsean]

Someone needs to save this post here somewhere and as we go along we can do a comparison. Otherwise we may forget. I saw yesterday theres a link on spaceweather http://www.floridadisaster.org/bpr/emto ... /index.htm on the http://www.myflorida.com web site under disaster links. They are starting to research and recognize it.

[Theo]

Thank you very much for the information Theo, I find it very interesting!

You're welcome Angelwing.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A few quastions for theo

What is your number of tropical cyclones...Meaning tropical storms,hurricanes,major hurricanes.

2# When do you expect the next cyclone to form on earth?

3# When will the next powerful cyclone form on earth?

4# When do you expect the next 9 point earth quake?

5# When doy you expect that big earth quake to hit the Portland area?

Lets see if you can get these. If you can they there will be no quastion you will earn alot of respect.

Please Answer my quastions theo. I hope your not mad at me

I'm sorry theo if I said something wrong to you...Just wented you to answer these.

[Theo]

Thank you for your outlook

Sure, you're welcome.

[angelwing]

Theo,
Do you have any other links beside spaceweather? I would like to look into this more.

Thanks!

[Theo]

Theo,
Do you have any other links beside spaceweather? I would like to look into this more.

Thanks!

There is plenty of information on lunar forecasting, just look it up on a search engine. The works of Claudius Ptolemy, and Johannes Kepler, and George McCormack can be entered as well. There should be plenty of historical information there.

[Theo]

So how many tropical cyclone do you think will form? In is that 24 to 29th of June when you expect your first?

According to my calculations, we could see tropical action as early as this month, May.

[Theo]

Interesting read Theo, learn something new everyday,I can see how the lunar activity controls weather conditions to some extent especially high tide due to the moons magnetic pull, but I don't understand this in correlation to tropical activity. How is the moons declinations control our weather?

Lunar maximums have played a major role in the earth's weather, and in some of the most devastating storms in history. It is a the functional player when it comes to gravitational influence, and pulls/pushes on the elements. It raises the sea tides, earth-tides, and air-tides - raising the atmosphere when above the horizon, and lowering it when it sets below. The Sun, and the planets play a geomagnetic role, and the Moon, a much more gravitational role.

When at maximum north, or southern declination, and at specific apogee or perigee cycles, the Moon plays an even greater role when it comes to unstable weather. This has been known by classical astrologers for thousands of years, and recorded with centuries of observations.

The Weather is what happens when atmospheric tides are gravitationally pulled around by the Moon. The atmosphere is a mass of gas weighing five million billion tons. Just like the ocean-tide, every day the atmospheric-tide comes "in" and then goes "out". More like higher and lower, with a stretched atmosphere extending higher into the heavens when the air-tide is in, and coming lower towards Earth ground level when the air- tide is out.

The Moon has about one sixth - 1/6 - of the Earth’s gravitational force. From only a couple of hundred thousand miles away, changes in the Moon's orbital patterns have major effects on Earth. Between a third and a quarter the size of Earth, the Moon orbits in a strange 8 pattern - reaching maximum declinations to the north and south every two weeks.

Simply stated, changes in the Moon’s movement can trigger changes in our weather. How it works is rather logical, but conventional scientists seem to have a vested interest in not stating it, nor teaching it in meterological schools.

Meteorologists utilise sea level or sea surface temperature analysis as tools in forecasting. Astrometeorologists know that sea tides/levels/temps are affected by many lunar factors, including synodic cycle, apsidal cycle(perigee/apogee), apsidal angle, declination angle, declination hemisphere, inclination, nodal or nutation cycle, apsidal cycle, anaomalistic cycle, tide cycle, variable diurnalism, moon’s angular momentum crossing ecliptic and equator, tide times and other cycles within cycles - it is very difficult to see just how conventional meteorologists can rule out the Moon as an empirical variable?

And, this is not even mentioning secondary factors such as wind speed and force, high and low pressure zones, cycles of currents, land movement etc. By virtue of tides and gravitational pull the Moon has its stamp on anything to do with the oceans.

It is a known fact that there are at least four separate but sometimes interfacing tides caused by lunar gravitation. The best known is the sea-tide, the exact times of which repeat every so many weeks, months and years. There is also the inner-core tide affecting the molten core of the Earth (Core Tide) which plays a major role in the cycles of earthquakes and eruptions, the land-tide (called Earth-tide, where the ground rises towards the Moon about 8 inches per day as the Moon goes overhead and then recedes again when the Moon goes below the horizon) and the air-tide affecting the height of the atmosphere.

At only ten earth-circumferences away the Moon is very close, actually it is our closest celestial neighbour, and it has two-and-a-half times the gravitational pull of the Sun. Therefore it exerts an influence on everything movable on our planet, be it solid, liquid or gas. Much of this influence is barely noticeable because there is nothing to compare it too, like the rising of the land towards the transiting Moon, called the Earth Tide, and the receding of it back again within 24 hours.

If the Moon has an effect on the sea then it must control the tides by distribution of the water. So is it silly to state that if it has an effect on the atmosphere then it must control the weather by distribution of the clouds?

Why should clouds, air, land and inner mantle not be tidal? They too, are masses of flexible matter. As masses they are subject to the pull of a large gravitational body such as a close Moon. The movable fluids on Earth would like to fly off into space toward the Moon, but are more strongly held to Earth by the Earth’s gravity and so remain on the Earth’s surface. But the inconstant transits of the Moon causes these fluids to be in flux.

One can liken the atmosphere to a fat rubberband; the top of which can stretch toward the Moon as the Moon goes overhead and then unstretch again when the Moon goes below the horizon. Because the weight of a rubberband remains constant either stretched or at rest, the Barometer, which only measures the weight of the atmosphere, cannot detect when the atmosphere changes height. This is why a barometer will seem to stay the same, even though the weather might change.

Atmospheric tides were researched in 1807 and rediscovered by British scientists Appleton and Weekes in 1939, who were investigating the strange phenomenon that shortwave radio signals reached around the world more clearly at New and Full Moon phases. They concluded if the atmosphere (or ‘stratosphere’) made radiowaves change clarity because of the phase of the Moon, then there must be a tidal effect in the air. There are scientific measurements of the atmospheric tide attributable to the Moon.

Whenever the Moon is above the horizon it has two bulges beneath it. These are pulled by gravitational attraction. One is made of water and the other is a bulge of air. The everchanging replacement of the water bulge results in the sea tide and the replacement of air within the air bulge results in the weather.

When the Moon is above the horizon, it is stretching the air and attracting, by gravitational pull, more atmosphere to higher levels in the sky - creating a larger volumed gaseous environment. The atmosphere is now a fraction higher and the amount can be up to 25% between phases.

The highest it gets is on a Full Moon night. If the useful atmosphere is 5 miles thick, then this stretch could be 1.25 miles, or for an accepted total depth of atmosphere of 60 miles, the atmospheric-tidal difference between high and low could be up to 15 miles.

The result of a higher atmosphere is to keep the cold of space further away from Earth. When the air height is lower because the Moon has set below the horizon and takes the air bulge with it, the cold of space creeps closer to the Earth, and the subsequent drop in temperature can cause clouds to condense at this time. That will happen during the day of a Full moon, and this is why it often clouds up on that day around noon-time.

When the Moon is below the horizon it is more likely to rain. If no rain happens, temperatures will most likely drop. Very often rain will also fall an hour or so on either side of the Moon setting. At New Moon, when the Moon is overhead during the day, rain is less likely - but rain is more likely at night at this phase. In contrast, at Full Moon, the nights will nearly always be clear. Old mariners used to have nautical saying: "the Full Moon eats clouds."

[Dustin]

I just sometimes wonder with the hurricane forecast, how does what you are saying make it unique to astrometrologly? I mean yea it is general place that SST's rise in the summer, so how is that unique to astrometrologly?

[Theo]

I just sometimes wonder with the hurricane forecast, how does what you are saying make it unique to astrometrologly? I mean yea it is general place that SST's rise in the summer, so how is that unique to astrometrologly?

Because we forecast from the causes - not the effects of large systems like hurricanes, tropical storms, etc. Moreover, remember that these storms can appear in winter and with eyes, as the February 2006 blizzard off the Atlantic did. See a satellite photo of it sometime.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Theo's explanations have made me much more aware of other factors (space and lunar) that play an important part in the causation aspects of sea surface temperatures and tropical weather. These factors will be important to consider this hurricane season, and any season for that matter.

[Derecho]

NOAA may have to switch to their SST summer scales in early May because of the rapidly warming waters.

Theo's original post shows it has been edited no less than 19 times, most recently, May 6. The above, I'm absolutely certain, was added to the post beginning this thread sometime within the last day or so; it certainly was not there before.

On another weather board it was noted on May 5 that one of NOAA's SST maps of the GOM had switched to summer scale.

If I were some sort of inflammatory meanie, I might suggest that Theo is reguarly editing his "forecast" to incorporate things after they have already happened but still give the impression that they were "forecast." Of course, I'm no inflammatory meanie, just the warm-n-fuzzy lovable Derecho of old.

[Theo]

Theo's explanations have made me much more aware of other factors (space and lunar) that play an important part in the causation aspects of sea surface temperatures and tropical weather. These factors will be important to consider this hurricane season, and any season for that matter.

Watching sea temperatures is one of many factors that is important Tampa Bay. The gulf stream as well, this year, could play a very critical role with these transits this season. The Sun is at minima cycle, but expected to start a maxima next year, so we will see more disruptions of the Earth's magnetic field as solar activity peaks in the years ahead.

[Theo]

NOAA may have to switch to their SST summer scales in early May because of the rapidly warming waters.

Theo's original post shows it has been edited no less than 19 times, most recently, May 6. The above, I'm absolutely certain, was added to the post beginning this thread sometime within the last day or so; it certainly was not there before.

On another weather board it was noted on May 5 that one of NOAA's SST maps of the GOM had switched to summer scale.

If I were some sort of inflammatory meanie, I might suggest that Theo is reguarly editing his "forecast" to incorporate things after they have already happened but still give the impression that they were "forecast." Of course, I'm no inflammatory meanie, just the warm-n-fuzzy lovable Derecho of old.

I've noted SSTs for years Derecho, and forecasted rising sea temps back in March when I wrote my lunar forecast for this hurricane season. I didn't even hear that noaa had already switched to their summer scales, but it wouldn't surprise me considering how warm gulf waters are this year compared to last - which I also forecasted before it happened. As for editing, I like to check spelling, and also add more lunar maximum dates to my forecast - if you bothered to notice them. Would you suggest I also incorporated that? As for being an "inflammatory meanie" I suggest you might want to focus on hurricane season rather than flamming the posts of others with false accusations. My forecast for hurricane season is on lunar maximum dates, so how I would incorporate things that haven't happened yet doesn't make sense.