Possible energy into the BOC?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfs,Ukmet,Nogaps to a lesser cmc all show a break off of lowing of the pressure over the BOC. Could be a low pressure that could develop...Its likely to be cold core because of the high shear.


I know that it will not develop...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivan14]

Well that is certainly interesting. Lets watch and see if it will happen.

[MiamiensisWx]

Interesting... the upper levels and middle levels might provide the support for some convection to develop. Some past tropical activity has developed this way, especially early in the season or perhaps just before it. I'm waiting and seeing, though. Could mean some rains for Mexico.

[CHRISTY]

Shear is going to be on the decrease in the western carribean..
Take a look on this graphic.





Here's the Eastern Carribean.



And of course the all important gulf of mexico....

[Weatherfreak000]

Obiviously. SST's support the formation of a tropical system in the BOC. And if shear supports it then that is good.



However, hybrid type systems as we all know need time. And time is usually always a factor against storms forming in the BOC considering it's a fairly small body of water.


Given that, I highly doubt any formation there except for well defined tropical waves with tight centers. Isn't that kind of obvious though?

[CHRISTY]

Iam gonna make a prediction here i say we will see our first system around MAY 23-24.Lets see if iam right.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say about June 10th we will see our first system.

[JonathanBelles]

Iam gonna make a prediction here i say we will see our first system around MAY 23-24.Lets see if iam right.

i'm down with that

[SouthFloridawx]

The Gfs,Ukmet,Nogaps to a lesser cmc all show a break off of lowing of the pressure over the BOC. Could be a low pressure that could develop...Its likely to be cold core because of the high shear.


I know that it will not develop...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Matt do not forget to check this site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[rockyman]

Remember this secret formula:

"Prediction" minus "rationale" equals "guess" When the season really gets going, I'd love to see more posts with explanations and fewer posts with unsupported guesses. Have a great evening, everyone!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on the Gfs it turns it warm core. In rockyman this is not a guess so please lay off.

[Weatherfreak000]

Based on the Gfs it turns it warm core. In rockyman this is not a guess so please lay off.

Really? Could you provide a link?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here you go...With all this shear around maybe not a cyclone but we will see.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 8/132.html

[gatorcane]

I think sometime in August will be our first -

But August - October will be rather active.

[spinfan4eva]

I think sometime in August will be our first -

But August - October will be rather active.

Hmmm, if you are right, I think people here will go crazy...Especially after last year! Expect peoples Dudd Season alarms to go off. We must keep up with 2005

Code: Select all

1 Tropical Storm ARLENE  08-13 JUN  60  30  -   
2 Tropical Storm BRET  28-30 JUN  35  1002  -   
3 Hurricane CINDY  03-07 JUL  65  992  1   
4 Hurricane DENNIS  05-13 JUL  130  930  4   
5 Hurricane EMILY  11-21 JUL  135  929  4   
6 Tropical Storm FRANKLIN  21-29 JUL  60  997  -   
7 Tropical Storm GERT  23-25 JUL  40  1005  -   
8 Tropical Storm HARVEY  02-08 AUG  55  994  -