INVEST in EPAC??

[CHRISTY]

TO ME THIS IS THE SYSTEM TO WATCH...YOU CAN ALMOST SEE SOME BANDING FEATURES ON THIS VISIBLE.I BET THIS WILL BE AN INVEST VERY SOON.LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE COMING HOURS.

[SouthFloridawx]

For your reading enjoyment. Take from it what you want.


WXTLIST WMO=AXPZ20
AXPZ20 KNHC 051628 2006125 1628
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 05 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 8N85W 8N93W 9N105W 10N114W
7N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 81.5W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-127.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ E OF 80W...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 129W-132W...AND
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-90W. ISOLATED STRONG IS
ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 6.5N79W.
...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA BUT IS SHEARING OUT WITH ITS AXIS FROM 32N133W TO
27.5N140W. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...A LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BE SWEEPING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 18-24
HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS
NOTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 121W. THE FLOW IS
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 23N.
WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE SOUTH OF 23N THIS FLOW HAS INCREASED
...AND IS CHANNELING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MEXICO.
LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N135W THROUGH
12N131W TO 7N125W. DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO AID ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS VICINITY. WEST OF THE TROUGH...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS PROTRUDING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N103W. RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 8N118W TO NEAR
7N124W. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS HONDURAS TO 12N92W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THIS TROUGH...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FROM SOUTH AMERICA ROUGHLY ALONG 10N WEST TO 90W.
AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 113W FROM ABOUT 4N TO
13N. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS OBSERVED FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 112W-116W...AND
IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW RESULTING FROM
THE TROUGH TO ITS WEST. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1330 UTC THIS
MORNING SUGGESTED A POSSIBLE LOW ON THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 8N113W.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUING MOVING WESTWARD REACHING
NEAR 118W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND 122W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 124W MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG WIDESPREAD AS IN THE
FIRST TROUGH...IS SEEN AS THE SCATTERED STRONG VARIETY WITHIN 45
NM OF LINE 10N126W 12N123W. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE AREA
THROUGH 32N135W AND EXTENDS THROUGH 25N121W TO 21N111W. HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 114W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD FROM 15N TO 27N WEST OF 120W.
$$
AGUIRRE
WXTLIST: done

[CHRISTY]

[CHRISTY]

GOOD CONVECTION GOING....LESS SEE IF IT PERSIST!

[JonathanBelles]

theres no invest on this, but there was an invest on an empty low (and mistake)?, theres somethin wrong there

[CHRISTY]

This is a GIF animation of the larger map.If you look CLOSELY you can almost see some spin.lets sit back and watch cause it is not even an invest yet,but it looks like it might be one soon.

[Weatherfreak000]

It sure looks like alot of nothing to me.



Notice how the convection is HIGHLY disorganized despite the burst over the center. This isn't really signs of a storm near development it's just....eye candy


Or at least that's what I think

[NONAME]

I have been tracking this feature for a couple of days it has been mantaing convection ever since it was at 100E and i think it has a little chance of devlopment but the eastern Pacific stay in season.

[CHRISTY]

yea iam starting to think the same thing.

[Rainband]

Very disorganized

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm surprised this hasn't been classified as an INVEST yet or earlier, especially considering what I mentioned earlier in this topic. The circulation, system origin, and other factors all really seem to fit the bill for an INVEST classification, especially earlier today and even now. Who agrees?

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm surprised this hasn't been classified as an INVEST yet or earlier, especially considering what I mentioned earlier in this topic. The circulation, system origin, and other factors all really seem to fit the bill for an INVEST classification, especially earlier today and even now. Who agrees?

It looks highly unorganized as we have been saying. I think the NHC is holding out to see if it stops lookings so pathetic

[MiamiensisWx]

I thought NRL classified INVESTs, Weatherfreak000!

[Weatherfreak000]

I thought NRL classified INVESTs, Weatherfreak000!

Oh, my mistake.

But hey while we're on the topic of the NHC they don't seem to be giving it much high talk either.


Boy if this thing develops after all the trash talk i've been giving it i'll never hear the end

[CHRISTY]

ITS NOT GONNA DO ANYTHING ITS A BIG MESS!THIS IS THE VERY LATEST IMAGE.

[Epsilon_Fan]

hey all I changed the title of the thread... I'm happy I started this one

[Ivan14]

It is not looking to hot. Maybe it will get its act together.

[CHRISTY]

LOOKS DEAD....

[Hyperstorm]

Now, we can surely say this system won't have any more potential for development. Why? It's not a recognizable entity, but just an ITCZ disturbance. The same thing happened last year in the Atlantic with a disturbance that was only related to the ITCZ.

9 days and counting...

[Derek Ortt]

NHC classifies invests for their area of responsibility, not the NRL