Barometer bob's 2006 prediction.

[gatorcane]

the only thing i disagree with is that the bermuda high will be strong. so far this spring there has been no sign of it at all

Not true - in March it was very strong. So strong that the GFS was showing low level pressure across the Atlantic Basin much like you would see in late August with huge ridging all over the Atlantic - not to mention that the eastern US warmer-than-normal winter was due to abnormally strong ridging all winter.

In April, the ridge has retreated.

I expect it to rear its ugly head in about 2 weeks and be very prominent most of hurricane season.

[Steve]

Bob needs to proof read some of that. His ENSO discussion has some contradictory information in it.

[MiamiensisWx]

This forecast is interesting and has a good analysis of many different factors in several sections. If a pattern like this holds out, wouldn't mean a year somewhat similar to 1995, with a better chance of fish resulting?

[Derek Ortt]

I believe more majors have affected Dade from the south than the east. I can think of about 2 that have hit Dade from the east, 1926 and Andrew (with a couple of other close calls), while cat 3,s andfalling on the SW Coast affecting Dade are more common (Wilma, 1926, several from the 40's, etc)

[MiamiensisWx]

I know, Ortt; that was not my question. My question is whether the pattern Barometer Bob is forecasting might result in a year with some similarities to 1995, with more chances of Cape Verde storms and fish storms resulting.

[gatorcane]

believe more majors have affected Dade from the south than the east. I can think of about 2 that have hit Dade from the east, 1926 and Andrew (with a couple of other close calls), while cat 3,s andfalling on the SW Coast affecting Dade are more common (Wilma, 1926, several from the 40's, etc)

Are you considering Palm Beach and Broward also? I am not factoring SW Florida as "south florida." Thus Lee and Collier counties are not part of south florida. Majors mostly come from the east.

[drezee]

I forecast average SST's in the Gulf of Mexico, with larger areas of above average SST's in the GOM.

What does that mean?

[Derek Ortt]

SW Florida and the keys are most certainly a part of south Florida.

Even still, Dade has been affected more so from the south and SW than from the east. Kind of like Hawaii where everyone watches the storms to the east, but its the ones to the south and SW that get them

[Scorpion]

Can't wait to see your forecast GreatOne . Your spelling is just so professional. Code Oragne anyone?

[MiamiensisWx]

Let's get back to the main topic...

[x-y-no]

Don't respond to the guy above. That's Greatone.

Yep. Sure is.

[cycloneye]

He is gone now.

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks, Luis, and all the other moderators for getting him out of here!

[Audrey2Katrina]

ROFL... I have no idea who "greatone" is/was, and frankly am glad I don't. Anyway... I think the season of Cape Verde storms and recurving fish is a distinct possibility.

A2K

[meteorologyman]

I am just curious, how acquately are these predictions that they post?

[boca]

I just purchased Hurricane shutters and I'm hoping to have them installed by late July or early August. Since I spent this money on shutters I'm praying that we won't get hit this year. Kind of reverse phychology.

[gatorcane]

hey boca don't you mean:

you want to get hit this year since you spent so much money on the shutters - then it won't happen.

I think that is reverse pyschology.

[Regit]

hey boca don't you mean:

you want to get hit this year since you spent so much money on the shutters - then it won't happen.

I think that is reverse pyschology.

Reverse psychology would be saying you don't care whether a hurricane hits or not. Spending a lot of money preparing and then not getting hit is Murphy's Law. Glad we could clear that up.