SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific #2

CHRISTY · #101 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 03, 2006 11:59 am

i think this will have inplications in the coming months in a negative way...

#102 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Wed May 03, 2006 12:26 pm

Assuming all other factors remain equal, absolutely. A 7+ degree increase in water temps is very substantial with tropical cyclones.

:eek:

Weatherfreak000 · #103 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Wed May 03, 2006 12:34 pm

I'm thinking if our early season storms last year had these SST's what could have happened...

Arlene- Cat 1?

Cindy- Cat 2?

Dennis- Cat 5?

Gert/Bret- Cat 1's?

Geez with these SST's sky is the limit I think.

#104 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Wed May 03, 2006 12:35 pm

I think that's a great point. Early season storms would have a much better chance of reaching higher intensities.

#105 Postby **drezee** » Wed May 03, 2006 1:14 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:According to these maps, the gulf is a good 3-5 deg F higher than April 27th last year.

Now, to check some buoy data for the same time, same years for verification...

2006 vs. 2005 May 3rd 17z

Buoy 42001- 2005: 24.2C 2006: 26.7C +2.5C
Buoy 42002- 2005: 24.3C 2006: 26.1C +1.8C
Buoy 42020- 2005: 22.7C 2006: 25.1C +2.4C
Buoy 42038- 2005: 22.8C 2006: 25.9C +3.1C
Buoy 42019- 2005: 22.9C 2006: 25.0C +2.1C
Buoy 42007- 2005: 20.7C 2006: 25.1C +4.4C
Buoy 42013- 2005: 22.7C 2006: 23.9C +1.2C
Buoy 42014- 2005: 24.0C 2006: 25.1C +1.1C

CHRISTY · #106 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 03, 2006 1:28 pm

drezee wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:According to these maps, the gulf is a good 3-5 deg F higher than April 27th last year.

Now, to check some buoy data for the same time, same years for verification...

2006 vs. 2005 May 3rd 17z

Buoy 42001- 2005: 24.2C 2006: 26.7C +2.5C
Buoy 42002- 2005: 24.3C 2006: 26.1C +1.8C
Buoy 42020- 2005: 22.7C 2006: 25.1C +2.4C
Buoy 42038- 2005: 22.8C 2006: 25.9C +3.1C
Buoy 42019- 2005: 22.9C 2006: 25.0C +2.1C
Buoy 42007- 2005: 20.7C 2006: 25.1C +4.4C
Buoy 42013- 2005: 22.7C 2006: 23.9C +1.2C
Buoy 42014- 2005: 24.0C 2006: 25.1C +1.1C

Ivan14 · #107 Postby **Ivan14** » Wed May 03, 2006 1:36 pm

Shocked beyond words!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #108 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 03, 2006 1:38 pm

This year a katrina or Dennis would not weaken as it moves at the coast.

MiamiensisWx · #109 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 03, 2006 1:42 pm

Please relax. SSTs are NOT everything. Shear does not obey SSTs. If a storm approaches the northern Gulf this year, we may well have the same weakening pattern before shore. Katrina crossed over a brief spurt of warm waters just south of the Mississippi Delta but continued weakening before landfall. Shear and dry air are big keys.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #110 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 03, 2006 2:02 pm

The area from 65 west to 40 west south of 20....Is much cooler this year. It would have to turn around very fast. Also it is even slightly cooler then 2004 even so very close.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 1.2004.gif

Also 2005, which had a much warmer Eastern Caribbean and Central Atlatnic.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2005.gif

Here is 2006.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.2006.gif

txwatcher91 · #111 Postby **txwatcher91** » Wed May 03, 2006 2:07 pm

Camille_2_Katrina wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:There's something weird going on with this website....

these are yesterdays SST'S!dont they look much different?

http://img3.freeimagehosting.net/image.php?aab0747cc8.png

iam not at my PC so this is the best i could do with this image....

that looks MUCH cooler
maybe all these gale winds we had the last few days
diluted the heat content of the surface water.

Note that the scale has changed to 32C as the maximum versus 30C.

Ivan14 · #112 Postby **Ivan14** » Thu May 04, 2006 12:16 am

You are right CapeVerdeWave SSTs are not every thing. Shear and dry air are big factors. If there is low shear and not a lot of dry air and there is a system out there it will BOMB.

#113 Postby **tailgater** » Thu May 04, 2006 6:36 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The area from 65 west to 40 west south of 20....Is much cooler this year. It would have to turn around very fast. Also it is even slightly cooler then 2004 even so very close.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 1.2004.gif

Also 2005, which had a much warmer Eastern Caribbean and Central Atlatnic.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2005.gif

Here is 2006.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.2006.gif

WOW did any one else notice, the entire oceans of this planet have cooled. Buy your winter coats, now Global Warming has reversed and we're headed into the next Ice Age. :roll:

#114 Postby **drezee** » Thu May 04, 2006 11:57 am

x-y-no · #115 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu May 04, 2006 12:03 pm

tailgater wrote: WOW did any one else notice, the entire oceans of this planet have cooled. Buy your winter coats, now Global Warming has reversed and we're headed into the next Ice Age.

Nope. Nobody noticed that because it's not true.

:roll:

#116 Postby **drezee** » Thu May 04, 2006 12:10 pm

2002 seemed warmer then 2006...but 2006 has the 2002 temps in the relative average...

Ivan14 · #117 Postby **Ivan14** » Thu May 04, 2006 1:43 pm

So 2002 is warmer then 2006?

Aquawind · #118 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu May 04, 2006 2:26 pm

In the GOM it was.. They change relatively quickly this time of year and with few fronts making little impact and the higher sun angle they will continue to warm.. 2002 could have had a trough or frontal boundry with lots of clouds and precip to cool the waters at that time.. that would be unusual during dry season but it happens.. We have actually cooled here..as I have seen SSTs reported into the low 80's weeks ago and then back down to 79F..

CHRISTY · #119 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu May 04, 2006 3:26 pm

Here's 2 SST images of 2002 and 2006 on may 4.
Lets compare them...

here's may 4 2002

here's the link to may 4 2006

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/06may/gm_06may04_1158_multi.png

Weatherfreak000 · #120 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Thu May 04, 2006 3:49 pm

An overview of the 2002 season seems to show alot of genesis in the gulf as well possibly attributed to the SST's.

Lili, being the strongest getting up into CAT IV Status. I think that much like 2002 we'll have alot of storms forming in the gulf as well but with lower than 2002's shear averages which would have helped storms in 2002 become stronger.

Also Lili unlike Rita and Katrina didn't spend prolonged time over the Gulf Stream which as 2005 proved is a very significant factor.

SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific #2

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