Whats up with the eastern pacific?

[no advance]

Been very inactive the past few yrs. Season starts in two weeks looks like some moisture down there. What do you all think?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it will be more active then last year...More hurricanes and Majors likely.

[EDR1222]

Interesting that it has not been quite as active. Maybe its part of the cycle that some of the hurricane experts have been discussing with the Atlantic seeing heightened activity and other regions are not seeing as much.

[Epsilon_Fan]

it has been quiet so far out there... I checked the visible loop yesterday and there were only a couple blobs on the ITCZ.

[HurricaneBill]

It's been in a less active cycle since 1995. Usually when the Atlantic is in an active phase, the EPAC is less active and vice-versa.

[AussieMark]

also lack of El Ninos during the peak of the season has also resulted in lower numbers in recent years

1997 and 2002 were some of the most active in recent years and were El Nino years. especially with the hurricane and major hurricane counts

1995: 10/7/3
1996: 9/5/2
1997: 18/10/8
1998: 13/9/6
1999: 9/6/2
2000: 19/6/2
2002: 15/8/6
2001: 15/8/2
2003: 16/7/0
2004: 12/6/3

[quandary]

If Global warming really is responsible for an increase in hurricanes, we should really see it next time there is a major El Nino. 1997 produced a plethora of massive hurricanes (Linda for one) in the Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific (Ivan, Joan, etc.). I think there were 10! cat 5s that year (or was it super typhoons (high end cat 4s) and at least 4 monsters under 880mb.

Of course, one claim against global warming impacting hurricanes is the very quiet EPAC. Last time the EPAC had a decent year was 2002, with Kenna, Elida and Hernan being marignal Cat 5s and Fausto being an extremely long lasting and wide travelling Cat 4.

They usually make it deep into the alphabet but haven't in recent years.