After Katrina.. what Gulf or Atlantic city do..

[Josephine96]

you now believe is the most vulnerable to a major hurricane strike..

These would be the cities I'd think of..

Tampa Bay area
Miami
Galveston
NY City and coast {No I haven't been watching It could Happen tomorrow too much}
Mobile and the Bay around it

{not including New Orleans in this opinion}

these are also in no particular order

[milankovitch]

Tampa Bay...way more coastal propery and a higher coastal population (surge) than Galveston, or Mobile.

[vbhoutex]

Tampa Bay...way more coastal propery and a higher coastal population (surge) than Galveston, or Mobile.

If you are talking only Galveston, you are correct. If you are talking Galveston and Galveston bay, the figure soars close to a million or more just in the surge areas. The immediate coastal population at Galveston will be around 60,000(or maybe less). However, if you are including bay areas as coastal, which I assume you are we have billions of dollars in industry along the bay as well as the above in population along the bay areas.

[gatorcane]

Hands down Tampa Bay. Pinellas County is the densest County in Florida and the Bay could produce a storm surge in a CAT4/5 scenaro that would take half of the county with it (due to the Bay's shallow water and a north track just west or along the coast of Pinellas County)

I hope we don't see this hit in our lifetime - it would be the greatest natural disaster in American History and the costliest hurricane to ever hit the Unitest States in my opinion.

Fortunately the scenario is unlikely and would require the perfect setup with a trough just to the NW of the State and a semi-strong western Atlantic ridge which typically is most likely to happen in October (although we cannot preclude August or September).

[milankovitch]

Tampa Bay...way more coastal propery and a higher coastal population (surge) than Galveston, or Mobile.

If you are talking only Galveston, you are correct. If you are talking Galveston and Galveston bay, the figure soars close to a million or more just in the surge areas. The immediate coastal population at Galveston will be around 60,000(or maybe less). However, if you are including bay areas as coastal, which I assume you are we have billions of dollars in industry along the bay as well as the above in population along the bay areas.

I'm not saying Galveston Bay wouldn't be catastrophically bad. I wish I could find a study that shows the number of people in a surge zone. Galveston would definetly have some problems with water moving up the bayous and believe me I appreciate that. However, Tampa Bay has a lot more people near open water. In the case of Tampa Bay and St. Pete I just have an image of all those countless keys and artifical islands being wiped clean.

[AussieMark]

going out on a limb I would say the New Jersey Coastline

maybe I am wrong tho

[westbury]

Well, actually, Mobile Bay experienced a tremendous storm surge with Katrina. In Fact, the surge from Katrina was near 13 ft at the State Docks, which was one of the highest surges ever recorded in the bay (more than Frederic 1979 and the 1916 hurricane). Mobile tends to be forgotten in the reports of Katrina. Granted, the damage was FAR MORE extensive in MS and LA, but the surge brought devastation to this area of Mobile Bay that had not seen this level before. Ivan spared Mobile Bay, but devastated coastal Baldwin Co. upon landfall. So, yes, the $$ value impact has been seen in coastal AL the past two years.

[JonathanBelles]

Hands down Tampa Bay. Pinellas County is the densest County in Florida and the Bay could produce a storm surge in a CAT4/5 scenaro that would take half of the county with it (due to the Bay's shallow water and a north track just west or along the coast of Pinellas County)

o thanx alot

[angelwing]

NJ is due, it's been a long time since something hit up here

[vbhoutex]

Tampa Bay...way more coastal propery and a higher coastal population (surge) than Galveston, or Mobile.

If you are talking only Galveston, you are correct. If you are talking Galveston and Galveston bay, the figure soars close to a million or more just in the surge areas. The immediate coastal population at Galveston will be around 60,000(or maybe less). However, if you are including bay areas as coastal, which I assume you are we have billions of dollars in industry along the bay as well as the above in population along the bay areas.

I'm not saying Galveston Bay wouldn't be catastrophically bad. I wish I could find a study that shows the number of people in a surge zone. Galveston would definetly have some problems with water moving up the bayous and believe me I appreciate that. However, Tampa Bay has a lot more people near open water. In the case of Tampa Bay and St. Pete I just have an image of all those countless keys and artifical islands being wiped clean.

If you take a good look at the two areas by google earth or something similar you will find they are much alike in topography and population distribution. This is not a competition and I am not trying to make it one, but I know either one would be a horrendous catastrophe. I pray we do not find out about either one ever!!!

[gtalum]

A major cane in NYC would cause a lot more damage than one in Tampa Bay. The aftermath would be worse as well since probably even fewer New Yorkers are prepared than Tampa Bay residents. of course, a major cane in NYC is a lot less likely than one in Tampa Bay.

[skysummit]

I'm not sure where to go with this one. For me it's a toss up between Tampa and Mobile. I would acutally have to look at the continental shelf a little more closely and get exact numbers on population to chose one of the two. I know Tampa dominates when it comes to population, but I'm not exactly sure if a surge would affect more area in Mobile or Tampa.

[Patrick99]

Major cane would wreck NYC, but let's face it, a major cane is a lot more likely to hit Tampa than New York.

Cat. 4-5 right into downtown Miami, FTL or WPB would be just as catastrophic, though storm surge effects would be more localized than in Tampa or Galveston due to the unique topography of this area, with the (relatively) high ridge right near the coast.

[gatorcane]

A major cane in NYC would cause a lot more damage than one in Tampa Bay. The aftermath would be worse as well since probably even fewer New Yorkers are prepared than Tampa Bay residents. of course, a major cane in NYC is a lot less likely than one in Tampa Bay.

North of about 30N, it is unlikely to see a major in the Western Atlantic and very unlikely to see a CAT 4/5.

[BayouVenteux]

North of about 30N, it is unlikely to see a major in the Western Atlantic and very unlikely to see a CAT 4/5.

30N latitude might be a bit overlimiting with regard to the likelihood of an western Atlantic / east coast major...case in point was the Charleston, SC landfalling Hurricane Hugo.

As for the mid-Atlantic and New England, a major hurricane is less likely -- but -- by no means impossible.

[Derek Ortt]

Its NYC and to suggest antother city, IMO, is foolhearty

In 1893, a CAT 1, destroyed Hog Island, off of Western LI. And I am not talking about the structures on the island, that CAT 1 actually destroyed the island itself. It no longer exists. In 1821, a CAT 2 caused the east and Hudson rivers to merge at Wall Street. A cat 3, which is possible, albiet a marginal 3 like the 1938 cane to the east, would produce a surge much higher than what was experienced in Katrina in MS (much larger storm, and a much more vulnerable coastline)

Tampa is vulnerable, though it does not have the population of NO and I am not sure if a 4 will make it that far north (Charley likely would have quickly weakened frm a near 5 to a 3 had it moved toward Tampa since it was severely sheared just after making landfall). Miami is vulnerable, but mainly due to wind, same thing for Galveston due to the sea wall

[skysummit]

Yea but...we're talking most vulnerable. I agree that NYC would get the most devistation, however, the chances of a NYC strike compared to a Tampa or Mobile strike by a major hurricane aren't even close. That's why I'm keeping my vulnerability to the latter two, and that's not being foolhearty. That's just taking threat chances into vulnerability and looking at it realistically.

[jasons2k]

Its NYC and to suggest antother city, IMO, is foolhearty

In 1893, a CAT 1, destroyed Hog Island, off of Western LI. And I am not talking about the structures on the island, that CAT 1 actually destroyed the island itself. It no longer exists. In 1821, a CAT 2 caused the east and Hudson rivers to merge at Wall Street. A cat 3, which is possible, albiet a marginal 3 like the 1938 cane to the east, would produce a surge much higher than what was experienced in Katrina in MS (much larger storm, and a much more vulnerable coastline)

Tampa is vulnerable, though it does not have the population of NO and I am not sure if a 4 will make it that far north (Charley likely would have quickly weakened frm a near 5 to a 3 had it moved toward Tampa since it was severely sheared just after making landfall). Miami is vulnerable, but mainly due to wind, same thing for Galveston due to the sea wall

I think you meant NYC not NO on the population, right? The Tampa-St. Pete MSA dwarfs NOLA Metro - by a few million.

Galveston's seawall will only do so much. It's great for a TS or maybe a Cat. 1-2, but that's it. It's only along the beachside of the island and it doesn't go along the west end. The island isn't surrounded by the seawall but it is surrounded by water (by definition ) Also, it has no affect on the bay area where all the heavy industry is located. A surge in Galveston would be much worse than Miami.

[gatorcane]

Its NYC and to suggest antother city, IMO, is foolhearty

In 1893, a CAT 1, destroyed Hog Island, off of Western LI. And I am not talking about the structures on the island, that CAT 1 actually destroyed the island itself. It no longer exists. In 1821, a CAT 2 caused the east and Hudson rivers to merge at Wall Street. A cat 3, which is possible, albiet a marginal 3 like the 1938 cane to the east, would produce a surge much higher than what was experienced in Katrina in MS (much larger storm, and a much more vulnerable coastline)

Tampa is vulnerable, though it does not have the population of NO and I am not sure if a 4 will make it that far north (Charley likely would have quickly weakened frm a near 5 to a 3 had it moved toward Tampa since it was severely sheared just after making landfall). Miami is vulnerable, but mainly due to wind, same thing for Galveston due to the sea wall

With SSTs running below normal in the Atlantic off the East coast, I doubt anything strong can make it that far north this year.

As far as Tampa, I disagree. Tampa's population is quite large. A CAT 4+ is quite possible. While I agree with you about Charley, if a front is located farther northwest, a CAT 4 is very possible into Tampa

[CrazyC83]

Remember: a Category 2 in New York will seem like a Category 4 in New Orleans. The shape of the coastline is a magnet for storm surge, the population density is incredible and the forward speed makes preparations more difficult.