How many named storms NOAA'S 2006 outlook will have?

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How many named storms NOAA'S 2006 outlook will have?

Between 7-9 named storms
1
2%
Between 10-12 named storms
0
No votes
Between 13-15 named storms
7
11%
Between 16-18 named storms
47
76%
More than 22 named storms
7
11%
 
Total votes: 62
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Rainband

#21 Postby Rainband » Mon May 01, 2006 6:09 pm

I voted 19-21.
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brunota2003
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#22 Postby brunota2003 » Mon May 01, 2006 6:38 pm

Was this approved by a mod? :cheesy: :lol: j/k I voted 16-18!!! Cycloneye is a great mod...;) along with everyone else here...
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#23 Postby senorpepr » Mon May 01, 2006 6:42 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Was this approved by a mod? :cheesy: :lol: j/k I voted 16-18!!! Cycloneye is a great mod...;) along with everyone else here...


Actually... it was.
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#24 Postby brunota2003 » Mon May 01, 2006 6:45 pm

senorpepr wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Was this approved by a mod? :cheesy: :lol: j/k I voted 16-18!!! Cycloneye is a great mod...;) along with everyone else here...


Actually... it was.
I know...I was just messing around...as I'm sure you used some sarcasm there to...:lol: It does look to be another pretty busy season though...almost time to batten down the hatchs and go hibernate for 6 months or so...
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#25 Postby O Town » Mon May 01, 2006 6:59 pm

I voted 13-15. And then if anything they will increase the numbers if need be.
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Rainband

#26 Postby Rainband » Mon May 01, 2006 7:13 pm

senorpepr wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Was this approved by a mod? :cheesy: :lol: j/k I voted 16-18!!! Cycloneye is a great mod...;) along with everyone else here...


Actually... it was.
Yes by more than one. :wink:
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#27 Postby Stephanie » Mon May 01, 2006 7:17 pm

I think 16 - 18 as well and NO I did not read Luis's guess ahead of time! :lol:
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#28 Postby senorpepr » Mon May 01, 2006 7:21 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Was this approved by a mod? :cheesy: :lol: j/k I voted 16-18!!! Cycloneye is a great mod...;) along with everyone else here...


Actually... it was.
I know...I was just messing around...as I'm sure you used some sarcasm there to...:lol: It does look to be another pretty busy season though...almost time to batten down the hatchs and go hibernate for 6 months or so...


You know me too well... of course I used sarcasm! :)

Yes, it does look like an awfully busy season.

I did some number crunching from 1995 through 2005. I've averaged up the number of tropical depressions, tropical storms (>=35KT), hurricanes (>=65KT), intense hurricanes (>=100KT), and super hurricanes (based on the US Military defination of >=130KT, to include high-end category four hurricanes). Furthermore, I've calculated the standard deviation of the aforemention categories.

Code: Select all

Category  Average  StndDev  Low SD  High SD
Trop Dep   17.36    05.52    11.84   22.89
Trop Stm   15.09    04.88    10.21   19.97
Hurr       08.36    02.92    05.45   11.28
Int Hurr   04.09    01.47    02.62   05.57
Sup Hurr   01.18    01.15    00.03   02.34


Therefore, to answer Luis's question based on averages and the standard deviation (including the el Niño year of 1997 and the hyper-active year of 2005), we should have around 15 named storms... give or take five.
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#29 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon May 01, 2006 7:25 pm

Looking at the current sea temptures, i think that thy would go with 19-21.
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#30 Postby senorpepr » Mon May 01, 2006 7:35 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Looking at the current sea temptures, i think that thy would go with 19-21.


Current temperatures are near or below normal throughout most of the basin, with the exception of in the eastern Caribbean and along the western Gulf of Mexico.

Even near the Loop Current... it's not that warm compared to normal.

http://www.remss.com/hurricane/RT_image ... a_anom.jpg
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#31 Postby Trey » Mon May 01, 2006 9:10 pm

Voted 16-18

My Odds:
13-15 : 25%
16-18 : 60%
19-21 : 15%

At the least I Should be 15% Correct.. :D

Edit: added "Should"
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#32 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Mon May 01, 2006 9:18 pm

Glad I didn't read before posting my choice: 16-18, as I actually thought I'd be in a minority as I find a lot of folks seem to think in the extremes (no offense, just an observation)... and I further think this will fall right close to the actual outcome. I'm all but convinced the Greek letters will be retired for at least a few more seasons.

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#33 Postby AussieMark » Tue May 02, 2006 12:51 am

I think 13-15 as in history u don't normally get insane years back to back

1934 had 11 after 21 in 1933
1970 had 10 after 18 in 1969
1996 had 13 after 19 in 1995
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#34 Postby EDR1222 » Tue May 02, 2006 12:00 pm

I think they will probably forecast 16-18 storms.
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#35 Postby canetracker » Tue May 02, 2006 1:19 pm

Although NOAA could start off conservative, I voted for 16-18 named storms.
16-18 just seems like a more realistic figure to me.
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#36 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 07, 2006 5:45 pm

Any more votes for this poll? Those who still haved not voted come and do so.And if you want to comment about the poll you can do so.
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#37 Postby StormScanWx » Sun May 07, 2006 5:56 pm

I voted awhile back for 16-18 named storms.
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Opal storm

#38 Postby Opal storm » Sun May 07, 2006 7:48 pm

I say 16-18 ,another busy season.
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#39 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun May 07, 2006 8:58 pm

I also agree 16 - 18 (and remembering last year, this could be another low ball estimate).
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#40 Postby angelwing » Sun May 07, 2006 8:58 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Honestly I think we are going to need the greek letters again so I vote over 22 storms. Please don't bash me.


ditto
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