91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is now gettting interesting...It appears to be moving eastward. Also with convection forming there is a chance that a surface low could form. The only thing against this is the sst's are way to cold. But a in 2003 a system formed near there earlier in April.

[MiamiensisWx]

CHRISTY, that blob of convection near the center looks interesting. An Ana-like scenario may be forming, but I'm waiting and seeing first.

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, interesting that Ana formed in a similar area...

Ana's 2003 track

[gatorcane]

SSTs are too cold:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

It is not going to go tropical or sub-tropical for that matter. It is a cold core system and the only reason there is an invest on this thing is because it is a test from NRL. Not trying to be mean but, pro-mets have already stated this thing is only a test.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... 12/M4.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Zeta,vince, and a few other systems form over 22c to 23c sst's so it can happen. Also this we need to watch if a LLC develops...I say chances are now increased to 10 percent.

[gatorcane]

water temps need to be 78F and higher.

[SouthFloridawx]

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRES OVER S CANADA IS CAUSING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
EXTREME W ATLC W OF 75W. A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC SPIN WITH TWO
EMBEDDED LOW CENTERS...1005 MB LOW NEAR 31N67W AND 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 30N68W...IS PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS. A SFC TROUGH WRAPS
AROUND TO THE S SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE 1007 MB LOW. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1005 MB LOW ALONG 28N63W 21N65W TO THE MONA
PASSAGE. A WIDE BAND OF RAIN IS WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
N OF 21N WITH MOISTURE MORE DIFFUSE NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES.
THIS RATHER LARGE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MEANDER FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...SFC
RIDGING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC.
HOWEVER...CONTAMINATING THE RIDGE IS A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N30W.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRES APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS
GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INITIALIZE THIS FEATURE AT THE
SFC. UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW IS ENHANCING BANDS OF CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 30W-60W S OF 21N.
MUCH OF THE ATLC APPEARS TO BE A IN A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH
FEATURES QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS IS LIKELY TO HOLD FOR THE NEXT
DAY COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPS BY MID-WEEK.

$$
CANGIALOSI

The bolded in black area is the area we have been talking about.

The area in red is another area of low pressure they are talking about but, the global models do not bring it to the surface at this time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

water temps need to be 78F and higher.

Please do tell that to 3 or 4 of last years storms. Also this is forming from a cold core low. So yes it can form over cooler sst's.

[gatorcane]

Remember we had a "system" like this last year at this time, although it was a little bit more West.

It is just a precursor of another active season to come.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is not going to go tropical or sub-tropical for that matter. It is a cold core system and the only reason there is an invest on this thing is because it is a test from NRL. Not trying to be mean but, pro-mets have already stated this thing is only a test.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... 12/M4.html

The tropics after 2005 are very suprizing...Its more of a wait in see instead of just some ones option. Which is as good as any ones right now.

[SouthFloridawx]

water temps need to be 78F and higher.

Please do tell that to 3 or 4 of last years storms. Also this is forming from a cold core low. So yes it can form over cooler sst's.

Tropical systems are warm core systems.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember we had a "system" like this last year at this time, although it was a little bit more West.

It is just a precursor of another active season to come.

It was a subtropical storm that formed in April of last year. But the nhc did not upgrade it. Derek also thinks it was...

[gatorcane]

Tropical systems cannot form where waters are less than 78F +/- the "fudge factor"

Yes, that was an interesting system.....

also recall we had a few systems over the winter that looked pretty good considering the time of year...

another very active year on the way...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

water temps need to be 78F and higher.

Please do tell that to 3 or 4 of last years storms. Also this is forming from a cold core low. So yes it can form over cooler sst's.

Tropical systems are warm core systems.

Yes they are...But if you have a colder upper Atmosphere/differences of warm and cold...Then you can form a subtropical or tropical system over colder waters. Have you learned anything from last hurricane season?

[SouthFloridawx]

water temps need to be 78F and higher.

Please do tell that to 3 or 4 of last years storms. Also this is forming from a cold core low. So yes it can form over cooler sst's.

Tropical systems are warm core systems.

Yes they are...But if you have a colder upper Atmosphere/differences of warm and cold...Then you can form a subtropical or tropical system over colder waters. Have you learned anything from last hurricane season?

Matt, when the NHC comes out and says in a tropical discussion that this may be forming into something tropical/sub-tropical then we can start talking about it doing so. IMO

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We don't need the nhc to watch it an discuse its formation? If so then what is the point. Also many systems developed just like this over the years.

[Weatherfreak000]

There is no convection near the center. This is nothing.

[Evil Jeremy]

i wouldnt say that myself. convection is now spreading in the area!!!

[Coredesat]

There's actually less convection now than there was at any other time. This isn't going to develop, and anything that is here will be killed when the next front moves through (which shouldn't be long).