Florida's perdictions

[hurricanefloyd5]

who here thinks(predictions please) the high will spare florida this year and who here thinks the high will screw this this year?????????????????????????

[spinfan4eva]

This should become more clear on or around November 30th 2006

[JonathanBelles]

well the last 2 years we have gotten 4 so i think 3rd times a charm

[Ivan14]

Just my gut felling Florida is going to yet again get screwed this year.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, it is still too early to tell. However, the current setup suggests we may see a year like 1999, with storms coming from the east coming close to Florida and the Bahamas before turning north, decreasing the risk of an east hit to southeast Florida but increasing the risk to North Carolina (especially the Outer Banks) or, possibly, New England/eastern Canada. Contrary to what some may think, I believe the current atmospheric patterns are more typical of a La Nina now than what they have been in the previous months. Also, the warming of the western Pacific waters, while spreading east a bit, has now weakened slightly. This supports the potential continuation, possibly, of La Nina or neutral/cool conditions. Current setups seem to indicate a neutral/cool setup at warmest. Ridging in the western Atlantic is now weaker than it has been in previous months due to the climatological atmospheric pattern shift to some more La Nina-like indicators, including some that were present in some of Dr. Gray's current analog years, with quite a few of them being La Nina years (see my other posts on this in other threads as well). Also, signs of Great Plains heat ridging is beginning to develop, which may mean troughing along the eastern U.S. coast. In addition to all this, a negative NAO has developed, and while ridging in the western Atlantic is now weaker (hence more western thunderstorms now developing over Florida, unlike earlier), central to eastern Atlantic (Azores High) ridging is now showing signs of becoming established (hence the rapid warming of western Atlantic waters due to a lack of cooling easterlies). Currently, many signs are indicating a possible continuation of this and a persisting, or even strengthening, of La Nina conditions. This pattern here would mean an increased risk to the far western Gulf, North Carolina, and the Leeward Islands, with the main risk to Florida being late in the season (in fact, this pattern might INCREASE the risk of a late-season hit to southeast Florida, especially based on past climatology relevant to situations like this). How long this pattern change lasts, though, is the key. However, some indicators as mentioned may well give this a chance to last into the heart of the season. Any thoughts?

NOTE - NO ONE SHOULD LET THEIR GUARD DOWN IN ANY YEAR. EVERYONE IS UNDER THE GUN. HAVE YOUR PREPARATIONS READY THIS YEAR, EVERYONE!

[Rainband]

who here thinks(predictions please) the high will spare florida this year and who here thinks the high will screw this this year?????????????????????????

this sounds like a poll to me??

[senorpepr]

NOTE - NO ONE SHOULD LET THEIR GUARD DOWN IN ANY YEAR. EVERYONE IS UNDER THE GUN. HAVE YOUR PREPARATIONS READY THIS YEAR, EVERYONE!

Actually, I think I will let my guard down. I think 2006 will be the year that a storm doesn't hit Nebraska.

[Aquawind]

NOTE - NO ONE SHOULD LET THEIR GUARD DOWN IN ANY YEAR. EVERYONE IS UNDER THE GUN. HAVE YOUR PREPARATIONS READY THIS YEAR, EVERYONE!

Actually, I think I will let my guard down. I think 2006 will be the year that a storm doesn't hit Nebraska.

Geesh looks like one overhead today..LOL.. Healthy Spin Alrighty..