Theo's AstroMet 2006 Hurricane & Tropical Storm Forecast

[Theo]

Theo's AstroMet Hurricane Season 2006
Lunar Maximum Forecast
For the Gulf Coast, Florida, South, Southeast, Carolinas, Virginia & the Mid-Atlantic

Astrometeorological transits indicate a very active time in the northern & southern hemispheres between April through November 2006, with tropical storms, and hurricanes.

Celestial transits as of mid-April indicate an earlier than usual tropical storm & hurricane season. The waters in the Gulf of Mexico will heat up earlier than usual this year due to the positions, and transits of transiting Mars, and Saturn, relative to the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Hemisphere.

According to my calculations, Gulf waters will reach near 80 degrees this month, and increase dramatically in May & June. Observations of gulf water temperatures should be taken now (mid-April) to confirm these astromet findings. NOAA may have to switch to their SST summer scales in early May because of the rapidly warming waters.

It is quite possible that the southern region of the U.S., especially Florida to Texas, could see tropical storm activity as early as mid-May. With MARS now transiting tropical Cancer, and nearing to conjunction with SATURN by early June, I expect tropical activity to start early this year.

Several signs would be SSTs, and anything noting rip tide currents off the eastern Atlantic seaboard, as well as gulf stream leaning towards the Eastern seaboard this spring.

Watching sea surface temperatures in the Sargasso Sea as well as the Gulf of Mexico this spring ahead of the official start of hurricane season on June 1st will show how much energy tropical storms and potential hurricanes will get from the very warm waters.

This hurricane season may see the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. struck by large storms due to the expected warming of the Sargasso Sea in the Atlantic ocean - this relates to the length and position of the gulf stream from the Florida coast to the Northeastern states, includling the Mid-Atlantic. If the gulf stream reacts as I expect it to then storm tracks will make landfall this hurricane season.

According to my planetary calculations, the gulf stream will lean towards the southeastern, and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States. These heated waters allows for large tropical storms, and hurricanes to strike the southern, and eastern seaboards. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and the Mid-Atlantic states are highlighted.

The Moon's activity this season is at maximum declination to the north. Along with planetary, and solar transits - I expect several powerful hurricanes, and tropical storms this year.

Lunar maximum declinations are a standard part of astrometeorological forecasts, and are especially useful for detailing the dates of sudden weather events, and to forecast potential tropical storms and hurricanes.

For instance, Saxby's Weather System was published in 1864. The author, Stephen Martin Saxby, presented his case for lunar influence on the earth's weather - "I found that the moon never crosses the earth's equator or reaches her position of stitial colure (maximum declination north or south of the equator), without a marked disturbance of the atmosphere occurring at the same period."

When the Moon reached maximum north, or south, and in particular constellations relfecting the elements of earth, air, fire, and water - the weather in geographical regions correlate to lunar & planetary cycles causing a variety of weather events such as strong winds, gales, sudden frosts, sudden thaws, sudden calms, and large intense storms.

Atmospheric changes could take place over a four-day period i.e. the day before, the day during, and until two days after maximum northern & southern declinations of the Moon, such as those on this short list of powerful & notable weather events ~

Tropical Cyclone Mala strikes Burma
April 29, 2006
Moon transiting towards maximum north declination at 23o23'

Tropical Cyclone Monica Hits Northeastern Australia
April 19, 2006
Moon at maximum south declination

Hurricane Katrina slams into the Gulf Coast
August 29, 2005
Moon at maximum north declination on August 28, 2005

Hurricane Wilma pounds the Yucatan Peninsula
October 21-23, 2005
Moon at maximum north declination October 22, 2005

Atlantic Coast Blizzard of 1993
March 12-13, 1993
Moon at maximum south declination on March 14, 1993

Hurricane Andrew
August 24, 1992
Moon at maximum north declination on August 22 1992

In Spring & Summer 2006, the Moon's maximum declinations to the north take place closer to the weekends. These lunar transits cover the tropical constellations of Aries, Taurus, Cancer, and Leo. I expect Gulf of Mexico waters to begin heating earlier than normal in mid-April.

Unusual early warming of waters near the Tropic of Cancer feed into the southern U.S. coastlines, including parts of the North & South Carolina coastlines.Temps in the Caribbean Sea increase earlier than normal. The season starts early, strengthens over summer, and peaks in September - a very active Lunar month, with a Perigee "Super Moon" taking place.

Included in my astrometeorological forecast, are the constellations of Virgo, and Pisces, where the Lunar Nodes will transit for 18-months - from June 22, 2006 to December 18, 2007. This is a mutable quality transit - highlighting the elements of earth and water for the next eighteen months. A strong weather cycle is indicated throughout this cycle, and includes global seismic activity. Some of the most powerful earthquakes are known to take place when the lunar nodes are transiting Virgo, and Pisces. Global earthquakes are highlighted throughout the June 2006-December 2007 Lunar Node cycle. The month of September 2006 is especially noted for seismic activity.

The dates below reflect active Lunar activity relative to the Tropic of Cancer, which the southern coastlines of the U.S. are located, including the Gulf of Mexico, the Carribean Sea, and the Sargasso Sea in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the Carolinas. Highlighted this year is the gulf stream in the Atlantic Ocean. These dates reflect astrometeorological transit activity & the Moon's maximum declination.

THEO'S 2006 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SEASON ASTROMET FORECAST

Forecast Regions: U.S. Gulf Coast, South, Southeast, Florida, Carolinas, Virginia & Mid-Atlantic
Astrometeorological transits indicate active severe storms, tropical storms, and hurricanes on the dates specified below.

*Note - **Moon** = conjoins Mars & Saturn

April 29 to May 4 -
**Moon** conjoins MARS IN CANCER at maximum declination north (MAX. N) - Gulf of Mexico waters warming faster, severe weather, tornados, potential early signs of tropical depressions, flooding events, heavy rains, gusty winds.

Notes: For an example of Lunar maximum effects on tropical storms, hurricanes, etc., see cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal, in Burma on April 29th, and Cyclone Monica that struck northeastern Australia April 19-20.

May 2006 Weather Lunar Event Days
(*) indicates lunar peak gravitational strength.

*The month of May has potential to see tropical storm activity near Florida, and the gulf coast due to planetary, and lunar transits.

Saturday, April 29 - Perigee cycle Moon transits Taurus/Gemini - Max. Decl.- 23oN23'
*Sunday, Apr. 30 - Moon/Gemini - Lunar Max. - 26oN42
*Mon., May 1 - Moon/late Gemini, early tropical Cancer - Lunar Max. - 28oN23'
*Tues., May 2 - Moon/Cancer - Lunar Max. - 28oN25'
*Wed., May 3 - Moon/Cancer - Lunar Max. 26oN56'

May 14 - May 20 - Moon heading Max. South - severe thunderstorms, lightning, driving rains, large hail, potential tornados, Midwest, Heartland, Southeastern to lower mid-Atlantic states as far north as Maryland.

Sunday, May 14 - Moon transits Sagittarius - Lunar Max. Decl. 25oS17'
*Monday, May 15 - Moon/Sagittarius - Lunar Max. 27oS41'
*Tues., May 16 - Moon enters Capricorn - Lunar Max. 28oS32'
*Wed., May 17 - Moon/Capricorn - Lunar Max. 27oS39'
*Thurs., May 18 - Moon enters Aquarius - Lunar Max. 25oS04'
*Fri., May 19 - Moon/Aquarius - Lunar Max. - 20oS58'

- May 26 to June 1 - **Moon** at MAX. North - Tropical storm activity near Florida & SE coast, much warmer temperatures.

Friday., May 26 - Moon transits late Taurus, enters Gemini - Lunar Max. - 21oN42'
Sat., May 27 - Moon/Gemini - Lunar Max. - 25oN32'
*Sun., May 28 - Moon/Gemini - Lunar Max. - 27oN50'
*Mon., May 29 - Moon enters Cancer - Lunar Max. - 28oN28'
*Tues., May 30 - Moon/Cancer - Lunar Max. - 27oN30'
Wed., May 31 - Moon enters Leo - Lunar Max. - 25oN07'

JUNE 2006
June 23 to June 29 - **Moon** at MAX. North - tropical storms, potential early hurricanes

- June 23 - Moon transits tropical Gemini at MAX. 24oN34'
*June 24 - Moon/Gemini at MAX. 27oN17'
*June 25 - Moon enters Cancer at MAX. 28oN24'
*June 26 - Moon/Cancer at MAX. 27oN55'
*June 27 - Moon/Cancer at MAX. 25oN58'
June 28 - Moon transits Leo at MAX. 22oN46'

JULY 2006
- July 21 to July 27 - **Moon** at MAX. North, conjoins Mars & Saturn - Tropical Storm & Hurricane transits

July 21 - Moon transits Gemini at MAX. 26oN52'
*July 22 - Moon/Gemini at MAX. 28oN21'
*July 23 - Moon enters Cancer at MAX. 28oN16'
*July 24 - Moon/Cancer at MAX. 26oN41'
July 25 - Moon/Leo at MAX. 23oN48'
July 26 - Moon/Leo at MAX. 19oN51'
July 27 - Moon/Leo at MAX. 15oN12'

AUGUST 2006
August 16 to August 21 - Moon at MAX. N

August 16 - Moon enters Gemini at MAX. 23oN09'
*August 17 - Moon/Gemini at MAX. 26oN29'
*August 18 - Moon/Gemini at MAX. 28oN18'
*August 19 - Moon enters Cancer at MAX. 28oN32'
*August 20 - Moon/Cancer at MAX. 27oN17'
*August 21 - Moon/Cancer at MAX. 24oN42'

Regarding September 2006
On September 7 - a "Super Moon" transit takes place with the start of a closer than usual perigee cycle Moon (beginning at Full Moon) that is closer to Earth than normal. Increased gravitational influence on the Earth, and lunar maximum intensification of storms. Take care to note off-shore tropical activity as early as Sept. 1, heading into Labor Day weekend.

- September 13 to Sept. 18 - Moon at MAX. N -
Dates reveals strong lunar transits. The Moon starts last quarter phase on Thursday, Sept. 14, in Gemini, and will transit tropical Cancer, and Leo at maximum north declination, and close perigee cycle.

The days of September 14,15,16 are powerful days for unstable weather -

Wednes., Sept. 13 - Moon transits Gemini at MAX. 25oN47'
Thurs., Sept. 14 - Moon/Gemini at MAX. 28oN04'
*Fri., Sept. 15 - Moon enters tropical Cancer at MAX. 28oN42'
*Sat., Sept. 16 - Moon/Cancer at MAX. 27oN46'
Sun., Sept. 17 - Moon/Cancer at MAX. 25oN28'
Mon., Sep. 18 - Moon enters tropical Leo at MAX. 22oN02'

OCTOBER 2006

October 10 - Moon/Gemini at MAX. 24oN27'
*October 11 - Moon/Gemini at MAX. 27oN25'
*October 12 - Moon enters Cancer at MAX. 28oN38'
*October 13 - Moon/Cancer at MAX. 28oN09'
*October 14 - Moon enters Leo at MAX. 26oN10'

Mark the dates above as key dates for hurricane and tropical storm watches. Lunar maximum declinations north for the Gulf coast, Carribean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean reveal a high potential for tropical storms, and hurricanes this season.

To stay on top of conditions in space, and the Earth-Sun relationship, as well as news in the solar system that affects the Earth go to http://www.spaceweather.com for updates.

Stay safe out there!

[Theo]

The Moon now is at northern declination, in tropical Gemini, and we should be seeing storm action throughout regions of the country with the Moon's position from April 28 through to May 3 at maximum north declination.

[JonathanBelles]

i dont get the moon-tropics connection

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So how many tropical cyclone do you think will form? In is that 24 to 29th of June when you expect your first?

[Evil Jeremy]

the moon and the lunar system controls the oceans, in which the hurricanes form over.

[senorpepr]

In is that 24 to 29th of June when you expect your first?

...you make it sound like he's expecting a baby...

[SouthFloridawx]

In is that 24 to 29th of June when you expect your first?

...you make it sound like he's expecting a baby...

Congrats on the new baby!

[SouthFloridawx]

Mark the dates above as key dates for hurricane and tropical storm watches. Lunar maximum declinations north for the Gulf coast, Carribean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean reveal a high potential for tropical storms, and hurricanes this season.

Theo thanks and I will be saving this to a word file to see how well this forecast was.

[Theo]

i dont get the moon-tropics connection

As an astromet, one of the first things you learn is to track the maximum north, and southern declinations of the Moon, along with the condition of the Sun (the season in question) and the positions of the planets relative to geodetic positions on the Earth. It never fails to amaze me how accurate astrology is when applied to weather forecasting - especially long-range.

The Moon is the deciding factor due to it being the closest celestial body to the Earth gravtiational wise. The other factors are geomagnetic activity via the planets, and the Solar winds, which buffet the solar system.

Magnetics is the key to understanding how weather works, and the Moon's gravtiational effect on timing, etc., via its transits and maximum declinations.

[Theo]

So how many tropical cyclone do you think will form? In is that 24 to 29th of June when you expect your first?

Actually, May looks interesting for tropical action this year. According to my astromet calculations, SSTs should already be warming up. I'm concerned about the southeastern coastlines, and the mid-Atlantic this year. The Moon's maximums are in strong signs, and the angles are strong in 2006.

[MiamiensisWx]

That's very interesting... thanks for posting it.

[Derecho]

i dont get the moon-tropics connection

Don't feel bad. You shouldn't.

[boca]

Interesting read Theo, learn something new everyday,I can see how the lunar activity controls weather conditions to some extent especially high tide due to the moons magnetic pull, but I don't understand this in correlation to tropical activity. How is the moons declinations control our weather?

[Derecho]

Interesting read Theo, learn something new everyday,I can see how the lunar activity controls weather conditions to some extent especially high tide due to the moons magnetic pull, but I don't understand this in correlation to tropical activity. How is the moons declinations control our weather?

Well, you have to strip this stuff down....pretty easy when you recognize it, a bit disappointed people don't see it more easily.

There is of course no actual physical mechanism that he proposes for the declinations of the moon to affect tropical weather.

There are two maximum and minimum declinations of the moon each lunar cycle - every 28 days.

He's claiming a 4 day window around each one for vague, unspecified forecasts of "severe" weather...in the US...the entire world? Who knows.

That's 8 days per 28 day cycle...or 28% of the time.

So, any severe weather event anywhere has close to a 1 in 3 chance of happning to be in one of these magical declination windows by dumb luck.

He of course provided a cherry-picked, brief list of severe weather events that fell in these declination windows...given how common it is for these events to fall in these windows, that's pretty easy to do. He didn't, of course, list all the severe weather events which have occured outside these windows.

A tropical system may well last 14 days.....there's no actual specification of what is being forecast with these declination windows...the storm forming, reaching maximum intensity, or making a landfall? Those three events can occur on widely separated dates, and it's basically impossible for one of them not to fall within a declination window.

Here's an amusing portion of his forecast:

May 14 - May 20 - Moon heading Max. South -
severe thunderstorms, lightning, driving rains, large hail, potential tornados, Midwest, Heartland,
Maryland

"Midwest" and "Heartland" are not defined, but presumably it could be the entire area from Colorado to Ohio, North Dakota to Texas (amusingly Maryland was tossed in as well)

This is for a seven day period in the month that typically has the most severe weather.

EVERY month in May is pretty much going to have severe thunderstorms, lightning, driving rains, and large hail SOMEWHERE in the vast areas of the Midwest and "Heartland." He couldn't bring himself to forecast "Actual" tornadoes though, just "potential" ones.

I am sure that in every single declination window the rest of the year, either in the US or the entire world, there will be SOME sort of "severe weather" somewhere...a tornado, flood, hurricane, etc. Of course, there will be twice as many such events OUTSIDE of declination windows.

Anyway, I strongly recommend people start reading works by the Amazing Randi, watching Penn & Teller's Showtime cable show, reading Carl Sagan's "Demon Haunted World" and joining skeptic organizations and getting their magazines. All of what I've pointed out in this post should have been pointed out much earlier.

People need to think more scientifically and skeptically.

[Theo]

Interesting read Theo, learn something new everyday,I can see how the lunar activity controls weather conditions to some extent especially high tide due to the moons magnetic pull, but I don't understand this in correlation to tropical activity. How is the moons declinations control our weather?

Well, you have to strip this stuff down....pretty easy when you recognize it, a bit disappointed people don't see it more easily.

There is of course no actual physical mechanism that he proposes for the declinations of the moon to affect tropical weather.

Try gravity, and the Moon's apogee & perigee cycles.

There are two maximum and minimum declinations of the moon each lunar cycle - every 28 days. He's claiming a 4 day window around each one for vague, unspecified forecasts of "severe" weather...in the US...the entire world? Who knows.

What is your point?

That's 8 days per 28 day cycle...or 28% of the time.So, any severe weather event anywhere has close to a 1 in 3 chance of happning to be in one of these magical declination windows by dumb luck.

Luck is not a factor in Astrometeorology. Transits are.

He of course provided a cherry-picked, brief list of severe weather events that fell in these declination windows...given how common it is for these events to fall in these windows, that's pretty easy to do. He didn't, of course, list all the severe weather events which have occured outside these windows.

Easy? Cherry-picked? Surely, you are joking! Why don't you try your hand at it then?

A tropical system may well last 14 days.....there's no actual specification of what is being forecast with these declination windows...the storm forming, reaching maximum intensity, or making a landfall? Those three events can occur on widely separated dates, and it's basically impossible for one of them not to fall within a declination window.

Really? Prove your assertion then.

Here's an amusing portion of his forecast:

May 14 - May 20 - Moon heading Max. South -
severe thunderstorms, lightning, driving rains, large hail, potential tornados, Midwest, Heartland,
Maryland

"Midwest" and "Heartland" are not defined, but presumably it could be the entire area from Colorado to Ohio, North Dakota to Texas (amusingly Maryland was tossed in as well)

Tossed in? You are most likely confused. You should know what the regions of your country are named.

This is for a seven day period in the month that typically has the most severe weather. EVERY month in May is pretty much going to have severe thunderstorms, lightning, driving rains, and large hail SOMEWHERE in the vast areas of the Midwest and "Heartland." He couldn't bring himself to forecast "Actual" tornadoes though, just "potential" ones.

Assertion: incorrect.

I am sure that in every single declination window the rest of the year, either in the US or the entire world, there will be SOME sort of "severe weather" somewhere...a tornado, flood, hurricane, etc. Of course, there will be twice as many such events OUTSIDE of declination windows.

Then prove it with facts, not your uninformed opinion.

Anyway, I strongly recommend people start reading works by the Amazing Randi, watching Penn & Teller's Showtime cable show, reading Carl Sagan's "Demon Haunted World" and joining skeptic organizations and getting their magazines. All of what I've pointed out in this post should have been pointed out much earlier.

No wonder you are confused and write as such. Perhaps if you turned off your TV, and paid more attention to weather, and space conditions you might then see how full of it Penn & Teller really are. But, to do that, you have to relinguish your remote TV control. Is this possible for you to do so you can observe the transits that directly influence your own local weather?

People need to think more scientifically and skeptically.

This includes you, no doubt.

[Theo]

Interesting read Theo, learn something new everyday,I can see how the lunar activity controls weather conditions to some extent especially high tide due to the moons magnetic pull, but I don't understand this in correlation to tropical activity. How is the moons declinations control our weather?

Thanks Boca. See my post in Global Weather forum about how the Moon directly affects earthly weather.

[jusforsean]

facinating thanks:

[Derecho]

What do you mean by "more scientifically?"

Try a dataset of one easily and rigorously defined, type of evere weather eventsworldwide (you haven't given any explanation of why moon declination should only affect the US or Atlantic).....tropical cyclones reaching Category 5, tornado outbreaks with more than a dozen tornadoes..whatever...and run a statistical analysis to see if there's a statistically significant (more than would be expected by chance) correlation of such events with your declination windows.

THAT'S Science.

A straight question......you do admit and recognize that your declination windows cover 29% of all the days in a year, correct?

propose that perhaps you learn more about astrometeorology

Spare us the song and dance and call it ASTROLOGY which is what it is.

If you are keen enough to notice, the regions, and dates for unstable weather conditions DURING hurricane season are specified. Along with exact dates.

The most important talent for any astrologer is the making of vague predictions that SEEM specific.

The Amazing Randi does a great demonstration of this when he speaks in schools, etc. The students aren't told who he is, and he arrives, takes everyone's birthdate, and provides each student with an individualized horoscope. The students then excitedly talk about how incredibly accurate the horoscope is in describing their personality.

Then Randi asks each student to pass their horoscope to the student next to them.

Turns out, he gave everyone the EXACT SAME HOROSCOPE.

Then he explains the scam of astrology.

In no way, shape or form have you made any specific forecasts; For September, you've picked out, apparently, something around 9 days, or a third of the month, for heightened tropical activity...the Atlantic, it seems, though I suspect if you had to you'd toss in a West Pac Typhoon if it fell within your dates, after the fact.

The odds that any 9 day period in September contain at least one tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning are very high.

You're making a great mass of predictions that have essentially no chance of failing.

As for Penn & Teller, and that crap. Well, you should know better.

I can sense your fear...nothing terrifies people like yourself than people thinking critically and rationally, and people encouraging it like Penn and Teller.

[Derecho]

Probably should have taken the time to go sequentially through the post...there are so many gems...like this:

According to my calculations, Gulf waters will reach near 80 degrees this month, and increase dramatically in May & June. Observations of gulf water temperatures should be taken now (mid-April) to confirm these astromet findings.

Gulf waters reach "near 80 degrees" EVERY April.

And in a stunning newsflash, oh Master of the Obvious, Gulf temperatures increas in May and June. Every year.

I'm anxiously awaiting your forecasts for the sun to rise in the east tomorrow, and for temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere to start getting cooler around the end of September this year, not warming again till late February/Early March of 2007 - all though the magic of "Astrometeorology."

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I completely agree with Derecho in this thread.

Although, another point is, "Find a group ignorant (btw ignorant is not in a negative sense here, it just means "doesn't know about") of certain subjects, flood them with false information that has a bunch of fancy and scientific-sounding words in it, and the vast majority of them will believe."

There is no significant correlation, considering all the times outside your "declination window" that severe weather occurs.

I could easily say, well, I used the bathroom on the days Katrina, Rita, and Wilma reached category 5 strength, so therefore, my using the bathroom caused them to do that. Yet it fails to take into account that many other days I use the bathroom, nothing happens. No significant correlation.