A possible system????????!=(Approved by staff)
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DoctorHurricane2003
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Epsilon_Fan
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Evil Jeremy
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Epsilon_Fan
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Audrey2Katrina
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I seriously doubt it... in fact, I don't think we'll see our first real "tropical" system before late May to early June (at the soonest)... JMHO.
A2K
P.S. Now watch something form next week!
A2K
P.S. Now watch something form next week!
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hurricanefloyd5
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this "so called "gale center" IS WRAPPING UP VERY VERY FAST TOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
this "so called "gale center" IS WRAPPING UP VERY VERY FAST TOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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CHRISTY
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bvigal
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I just found this from 2:30 marine forecast from Wally Barnes, TPC/NHS:
...AT THE SURFACE...DEVELOPING STORM LOW CENTER AT 33N67W 1004 MB DRIFT SE. CAA STEADILY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WHILE GULFSTREAM HEAT CONTENT CAN ONLY EXACERBATE CONDITIONS. GALE AND STORM CONDITIONS REMAIN N OF FORECAST AREA...BUT LONG FETCH ON W SIDE OF LOW PRES CENTER WILL BRING HIGHER SEAS THAN NWW3 SOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRES CENTER AND TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED EXPECTED TO INCREASE WIND ON ERN QUADRANTS TO GALE FORCE...JUST E OF FORECAST AREA... FOR SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...12 HRS...BEFORE CENTER DRIFTS N OF 31N.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COLD FRONT JUST ENTERED NW GULF WITH ALL NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS IT MOVES E AND WEAKENS RAPIDLY WHEN UPPER CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.
CARIBBEAN TRADES EASE OFF AS GRADIENT DECREASES WITH ATLC LOW PRES/COLD FRONT RUNNING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO.
I'm glad those sailors I mentioned yesterday have postponed leaving until Monday!
http://www.carib1500.com/
...AT THE SURFACE...DEVELOPING STORM LOW CENTER AT 33N67W 1004 MB DRIFT SE. CAA STEADILY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WHILE GULFSTREAM HEAT CONTENT CAN ONLY EXACERBATE CONDITIONS. GALE AND STORM CONDITIONS REMAIN N OF FORECAST AREA...BUT LONG FETCH ON W SIDE OF LOW PRES CENTER WILL BRING HIGHER SEAS THAN NWW3 SOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRES CENTER AND TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED EXPECTED TO INCREASE WIND ON ERN QUADRANTS TO GALE FORCE...JUST E OF FORECAST AREA... FOR SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...12 HRS...BEFORE CENTER DRIFTS N OF 31N.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COLD FRONT JUST ENTERED NW GULF WITH ALL NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS IT MOVES E AND WEAKENS RAPIDLY WHEN UPPER CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.
CARIBBEAN TRADES EASE OFF AS GRADIENT DECREASES WITH ATLC LOW PRES/COLD FRONT RUNNING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO.
I'm glad those sailors I mentioned yesterday have postponed leaving until Monday!
http://www.carib1500.com/
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hurricanefloyd5
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cycloneye
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hurricanefloyd5 wrote:dose anyone know what the MB pressure in this system is??????????????
According to the 2 PM TPC discussion the Gale Center is at 1004 mbs.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Evil Jeremy
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hurricanefloyd5
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george_r_1961
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I voted maybe...because after the past 2 years I know better than to completely rule out a gale center becoming a subtropical or hybrid storm. Remember for a system to be warm core, its core must have a higher temp than its environment. In other words a core temp of 70 degrees surrounded by 65 degree temps would be a warm core. Two things we have to watch for here: Look to see if the low cuts off from the parent frontal system; look for convection firing up near the center. The front appears to be occluding and there have been intermiitent bursts of convection at night but nothing persistent. So development at least in the short term doesnt seem likely. We will need to watch the environment around this gale center closely at it moves ESE since it certainly isnt unheard of for the part of the atlantic it is moving into (east of Bermuda) to spin up a surprise.
Last edited by george_r_1961 on Sat Apr 29, 2006 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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