SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#1141 Postby x-y-no » Sat Apr 29, 2006 2:15 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:Look how much warmer the gulf is compared to last year. This doesn't look good at all.
April 28,2005
April 28,2006


NW Caribbean and the Florida coastal area & Bahamas also a lot warmer than last year.

OTOH, south and east Caribbean and the MDR are cooler than last year.
Last edited by x-y-no on Sat Apr 29, 2006 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#1142 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Apr 29, 2006 2:15 pm

now i know why u call urself EVIL jeremy LOL but ur probably right
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146214
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#1143 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 29, 2006 2:16 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:remind me what the forecast calls for? 17 storms from earlier in the month? i wonder what the numbers will be next month! in any case, FL is gonna get scrwed again this year. and if this really are the temps now, imagine what they will be come June 1st!!!


It was Philip J. Klotzbach/ Dr Gray April forecast

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray April Forecast
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#1144 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Apr 29, 2006 2:19 pm

i knew that, but looking at these temps, their numbers are probaly going to go up! cuba is already engulphed in hurricane season sea temps, and were only in the end of April!!!
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#1145 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Apr 29, 2006 2:27 pm

x-y-no wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Look how much warmer the gulf is compared to last year. This doesn't look good at all.
April 28,2005
April 28,2006


NW Caribbean and the Florida coastal area & Bahamas also a lot warmer than last year.

OTOH, south and east Caribbean and the MDR are cooler than last year.


That is a little disturbing
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#1146 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Apr 29, 2006 2:35 pm

which means that the Gulf of Mexico is in for it (again) this year.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146214
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#1147 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 29, 2006 2:44 pm

Gom Temps Graphic

Above is the latest graphic of the GOM water temps.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#1148 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Apr 29, 2006 2:56 pm

How do you calculate Celcius into Farenheit?
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#1149 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:03 pm

Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
benny
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:09 am
Location: Miami

#1150 Postby benny » Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:04 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Look how much warmer the gulf is compared to last year. This doesn't look good at all.
April 28,2005
April 28,2006


NW Caribbean and the Florida coastal area & Bahamas also a lot warmer than last year.

OTOH, south and east Caribbean and the MDR are cooler than last year.


That is a little disturbing


It just doesn't mean a whole lot. 2001 was also a warm year in the Gulf and there wasn't even a hurricane landfall in the GOM. That area doesn't really have any climate signals... it is next to impossible to predict because it isn't linked as closely as the E Coast is to tropical Atlantic SSTs. The GOM is always warm in the season.. whether it is 85 or 90 really doesn't matter (look at the westpac). It needs the right steering and at this point.. who knows. A cooling eastern part of the ENSO seems to help as well but that is a qualitative assessment.
0 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

#1151 Postby txwatcher91 » Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:05 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:How do you calculate Celcius into Farenheit?


Take the temp. in Celsius (25 for example) and divide it by 5 (=5). Then, multiply the number by 9 and add 32. (5x9 = 45 + 32 = 77F)
Hope this is clear.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#1152 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:08 pm

Very clear. Thank you.
0 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

#1153 Postby txwatcher91 » Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:10 pm

benny wrote:It just doesn't mean a whole lot. 2001 was also a warm year in the Gulf and there wasn't even a hurricane landfall in the GOM. That area doesn't really have any climate signals... it is next to impossible to predict because it isn't linked as closely as the E Coast is to tropical Atlantic SSTs. The GOM is always warm in the season.. whether it is 85 or 90 really doesn't matter (look at the westpac). It needs the right steering and at this point.. who knows. A cooling eastern part of the ENSO seems to help as well but that is a qualitative assessment.


But, in 2001 the rest of the Atlantic was below normal.

whether it is 85 or 90 really doesn't matter (look at the westpac).
Typhoon Tip, Forest, and a few other "Super" Typhoons sure liked the warm waters when they bombed. So did Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#1154 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:10 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:How do you calculate Celcius into Farenheit?


Take the temp. in Celsius (25 for example) and divide it by 5 (=5). Then, multiply the number by 9 and add 32. (5x9 = 45 + 32 = 77F)
Hope this is clear.


32C would be 89.6F right?
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#1155 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:14 pm

Yup, just checked it.
0 likes   

User avatar
benny
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:09 am
Location: Miami

#1156 Postby benny » Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:15 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
benny wrote:It just doesn't mean a whole lot. 2001 was also a warm year in the Gulf and there wasn't even a hurricane landfall in the GOM. That area doesn't really have any climate signals... it is next to impossible to predict because it isn't linked as closely as the E Coast is to tropical Atlantic SSTs. The GOM is always warm in the season.. whether it is 85 or 90 really doesn't matter (look at the westpac). It needs the right steering and at this point.. who knows. A cooling eastern part of the ENSO seems to help as well but that is a qualitative assessment.


But, in 2001 the rest of the Atlantic was below normal.

whether it is 85 or 90 really doesn't matter (look at the westpac).
Typhoon Tip, Forest, and a few other "Super" Typhoons sure liked the warm waters when they bombed. So did Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.


After June the SSTs were about .2-.4C above average in the tropical Atlantic. Thus it really wasn't a below normal SST year. Now they were in April but that didn't last.

Cat 5 Isabel was over water that was about 28C or 82F. That's all you need to get a ridiculously strong hurricane. This loop current stuff is overblown in my opinion. The atmosphere allows the storms to get strong.. any SST effects are second-order as long as it is above about 27.5C-28C. There is about 1/3 to 1/2 as much heat content north of Puerto Rico where the maximum in MH frequency is rather than over the loop current of the Gulf of Mexico.
0 likes   

User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

#1157 Postby Trugunzn » Sat Apr 29, 2006 8:54 pm

You think this is the reason why our oceans are so warm?!

Image
0 likes   

CHRISTY

#1158 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Apr 29, 2006 10:15 pm

Atlantic Temps in 120 hrs...

Image
0 likes   

Anonymous

#1159 Postby Anonymous » Sat Apr 29, 2006 11:52 pm

sea temps are going up
0 likes   

Anonymous

#1160 Postby Anonymous » Sat Apr 29, 2006 11:52 pm

sea temps are going up
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 66 guests