SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[MiamiensisWx]

That's partly due to a lack of ridging in the western and central areas of the Atlantic, CHRISTY, due to the pattern change.

[CHRISTY]

That's partly due to a lack of ridging in the western and central areas of the Atlantic, CHRISTY, due to the pattern change.

so wait your saying that the ridge is weaker now.cause i thought its been pretty persistant so far this year?

[MiamiensisWx]

It is weaker now and less persistent than it has been last month and previously. Also, current long-term patterns suggest this might be a big player later on, but we shall see.

[HurricaneHunter914]

CVW is right, if the ridging was still strong the temps wouldn't be so warm. Remember ridging keeps the temps cool in the Atlantic.

[CHRISTY]

CVW is right, if the ridging was still strong the temps wouldn't be so warm. Remember ridging keeps the temps cool in the Atlantic.

ok so then this great right?lots of fish.....

[MiamiensisWx]

Not exactly. This would be very bad for North Carolina. Also, the Great Plains ridging would mean ridging would extend south into the western Gulf, which would mean potential landfalls for Texas and Mexico. However, southeast Florida would (maybe will) likely be at less of a risk of getting hit from the east. Also, the northern Gulf threat would be diminished, which is great news.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Remember CVW the ridge won't stay like this forever and the ridge isn't the only reason for hurricanes hitting Florida.

[MiamiensisWx]

I know... I am just saying that this pattern would mean that southeast Florida would be more La Nina-like and would result in less of a risk of an east hit to southeast Florida. However, this setup I mentioned would increase the risk of a late-season southern Florida hit from the southwest. Don't let your guard down.

[CHRISTY]

Not exactly. This would be very bad for North Carolina. Also, the Great Plains ridging would mean ridging would extend south into the western Gulf, which would mean potential landfalls for Texas and Mexico. However, southeast Florida would (maybe will) likely be at less of a risk of getting hit from the east. Also, the northern Gulf threat would be diminished, which is great news.

yea sounds great but iam thinking all this is a lil premature...lets see how things evolve in the coming months.

[Nimbus]

I gather that the reason most of the people have been checking in at hurricane hollow in April is that it has been so damn hot recently!

We are definately getting some drought conditions all along the gulf coast.

http://weather.tradingcharts.com/US_Pal ... Index.html

And the clear skies have contributed to a dramatic increase in the Gulf of Mexico SST's.

With the SST's running 3 or 4 degrees above normal in the gulf we should see some increased convection in May agreed?

May and June don't produce monster canes but we have had years where warm SST's spawn early season tropical depressions and persistant showers. Lets all hope for a couple soakers before the worst part of the season gets here.

[CHRISTY]

Yea its been real dry in florida....take a look at these gulf of mexico and carribean temps thow!

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... it is MUCH warmer now. I fear the Gulf Stream and waters off Florida will likely get very warm to hot by July and August.

[James]

Earlier this week there were still some yellows in the Gulf, now they've just about gone. Let's just hope the conditions aloft are not very conducive.

[MiamiensisWx]

Hopefully so, James.

[CHRISTY]

its like all the 80 degrees plus water in the carribean is moving into the gulf of mexico...look at the spikes of 80 plus water temps into the gulf!

[Ivan14]

Its probably going to be a bad year regardless if there is a strong Bermuda High or not. Those Temps are the fuel for these things to get pumped up and any storm that goes into the Gulf or Caribbean will be on steroids.

[JonathanBelles]

its like all the 80 degrees plus water in the carribean is moving into the gulf of mexico...look at the spikes of 80 plus water temps into the gulf!

that spike looks like its heading for NO

[txwatcher91]

Look how much warmer the gulf is compared to last year. This doesn't look good at all.
April 28,2005
April 28,2006

[JonathanBelles]

holy crap the GOM is HOTT

[Evil Jeremy]

remind me what the forecast calls for? 17 storms from earlier in the month? i wonder what the numbers will be next month! in any case, FL is gonna get scrwed again this year. and if this really are the temps now, imagine what they will be come June 1st!!!