VSCS Mala - Landfall: Myanmar - 22 deaths

MiamiensisWx · #61 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:17 pm

Isn't Mala carrying some very heavy rainbands?

CHRISTY · #62 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:22 pm

Hurricane Michelle...AWSOME STORM!She missed florida!But it was kinda close.

Jim Cantore · #63 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:24 pm

Hurricane Michelle...AWSOME STORM!She missed florida!But it was kinda close.

made the Dolphins-Panthers game that sunday fun to watch, although the Dolphins blew them out 24-6 or something like that.

MiamiensisWx · #64 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:24 pm

Michelle actually resembles Mala in shape and convective activity in both of those images, CHRISTY.

#65 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:25 pm

THIS IS WHY I SAY THAT LOOKS CAN BE DECEIVING.

#66 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:28 pm

TC ADVISOTRY
-----------

DTG : 20060429/0000Z
TCAC : NEW DELHI
TC : MALA
NR : 15

PSN : N1630 E09330
MOV : NE 05KT
C : 954HPA
MAX WIND : 102KT

FCST PSN + 12HRS : OVER LAND

NEXT MSG: : 20060429/0600Z

INDIA SAYS 115 KNOTS IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT THEY USE THE 10-MIN. 102 KNOTS 10-MIN = 116 KNOTS.

CHRISTY · #67 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:29 pm

yea they look kinda similar...

Jim Cantore · #68 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:29 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Michelle actually resembles Mala in shape and convective activity in both of those images, CHRISTY.

dont forget in intensity

135mph-130mph

MiamiensisWx · #69 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:32 pm

True, Floyd. Mala is rather similar in that, too.

CHRISTY · #70 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:33 pm

GUYS TAKE A LOOK AT THIS LOOP FROM CIMSS...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #71 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:35 pm

Looks like it has went through a EWRC...In it is now done with it with a much larger eye. With looking at that data it shows still 112 knots.

dwsqos2 · #72 Postby **dwsqos2** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:46 pm

I don't mean to be rude, but technically MICHELLE was a bit more intense
Nov. 4, 2001 than the previous day, for in MICHELLE's TCR it is observed
that "[MICHELLE] reached a peak intensity of 120 kt from 0600-1800 UTC on the 4th
while accelerating northeastward" (Beven, 2001). However, this further
illustrates the difficulty of estimating intensity by satellite
presentation.

HurricaneBill · #73 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:46 pm

Could Mala be pulling a Wilma? Maintaining intensity despite strong shear?

Jim Cantore · #74 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:48 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:Could Mala be pulling a Wilma? Maintaining intensity despite strong shear?

strong but not strong enough

surely not a strong as what, Literally, Slaughtered Michelle in 2001 after she struck Cuba.

#75 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:49 pm

dwsqos2 wrote:However, this further
illustrates the difficulty of estimating intensity by satellite
presentation.

That's my point!!!

Jim Cantore · #76 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:51 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
dwsqos2 wrote:However, this further
illustrates the difficulty of estimating intensity by satellite
presentation.

That's my point!!!

I made this point when I called into Talkin Tropics last night, how do you think we get storms like Ethel?

wxmann_91 · #77 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:02 pm

Christy, could you mind linking that instead of just placing the image?

Mala may be holding steady. See here's the thing is that trough and TC interaction is extremely difficult to forecast, since in one hand it could enhance the outflow, but OTOH it will shear it.

#78 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:47 pm

VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “MALA” ADVISORY NO. TWENTY NINE ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 29TH APRIL 2006 BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH APRIL 2006. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC NEAR LAT. 16.5 N AND LONG. 93.5 E ABOUT 550 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORTBLAIR. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS ARAKAN COAST WITH A POSSIBLE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SANDWAY(48080) AROUND 0600 UTC OF 29 APRIL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR EYE AND ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS T5.5 RPT T5.5. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 hPa. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 100-110 KT GUSTING TO 120 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. STATE OF SEA WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

FORECAST : THE SYSTEM OVER LAND AFTER 12 HOURS.

That's not a normal behavior in tropical cyclones when a trough is picking them up, they usually accelarate NEward. It could be that the trough is not strong enough to have a great impact on the system. Nevertheless, things are beginning to look bad for the people in Myamar. I was not expecting the system taking so long to get to the coast, and more rain than anticipated is falling and creating the perfect condicions for flooding which should be occurring as we speak.

HurricaneHunter914 · #79 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Apr 29, 2006 7:56 am

To bad we won't get any damage reports since there are no journalists.

#80 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Apr 29, 2006 8:09 am

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:To bad we won't get any damage reports since there are no journalists.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/ ... 29029.html

This article reports massive waves and flooding from an island near the delta.

VSCS Mala - Landfall: Myanmar - 22 deaths

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