TD One advisory email

[hurricanetrack]

Got an email for TD 1 in the Caribbean. What's up with that? Forecasters were Knabb and Avila.

Here it is:

From: NHC Mail (Atlantic Full)
[mailto:mail-storm-atlan-full@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov]
Sent: April 28, 2006 5:20 PM
To: undisclosed-recipients
Subject: TD ONE Forecast/Advisory 1


ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
2100 UTC WED JUN 08 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800 UTC CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600 UTC 18.1N 84.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800 UTC 19.9N 84.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600 UTC 22.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800 UTC 24.5N 86.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800 UTC 29.0N 88.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON
DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800 UTC 34.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800 UTC 37.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA


$$
NNNN

[Hurricaneman]

I believe its a test

[cycloneye]

That has been posted at the 91L thread.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I don't think its a test. Theres nothing on it to indicate its a test however its not true. I think its more likely an error then a test!

[Recurve]

Yeah, just got that myself. It pushed my adrenaline button. Obviously a mistake/test; the date is "Wednesday June 08 2006."

The actual day of June 8 will be Thursday

All I could think was, "oh no, not already" until I saw the date.

[cycloneye]

Test or error.The position doesn't match with the 91L one.And more there is nothing at the western Caribbean.

[tracyswfla]

Test or error.The position doesn't match with the 91L one.And more there is nothing at the western Caribbean.

Well it got my attention

[BayouVenteux]

My wife called me about an hour ago and said that she was listening to WWL radio (in New Orleans) and they were reporting a developing TD off of Cuba!

I had to assure her that there was no mention of anything at S2k, the NHC site or anywhere else. Told her the satellite VIS is all peace and quiet and after all...IT'S JUST LATE APRIL! But she insisted that's what the announcer was reporting (not sure who it was).

About 20 minutes later, she called and said that it was apparently some kind of hoax.

Hard to believe in this day and age a radio station, and a major one at that, would broadcast that before following up on the info by checking all the all the resources at their disposal!

Kind of funny, but kind of sad when you think about how mentally on edge this part of the world already is, heading into h-season 2006.

Postscript: Besides, you'd think the date "JUNE 08 2006" should've raised an eyebrow!

[Scorpion]

Seems like its Arlene except with a 2006 instead of 2005.

[Extremeweatherguy]

may be the email is a glimpse into the future. If there really is a storm in that area on June 8th it will pretty amazing. May be you are seeing things to come. lol.

[Brent]

Seems like its Arlene except with a 2006 instead of 2005.

EVERYTHING is the same(except for the year).

June 8, 2005 was on a Wednesday. June 8, 2006 is on a Thursday.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I was listening to WWL Radio myself, and heard this report... it was around 3:25 P.M. CDT, and I don't mind telling you hearing this guy announce a projected movement that would place the COC somewhere near Plaquemines Parish (even gave the projected coordinates) by some time on Tuesday .. was more than a slight cause of alarm.

This is INexcusable IMO, especially in an area as ravaged as this has been. I hope they find the perpetrator of this, and WWL should be fined for airing such a potentially nerve-wracking item without checking it out completely.

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

this is the first advisory on TD one last year

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE
84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN
AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 510 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT ORGANIZES...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA


$$
NNNN

[artist]

from the NHC - I sent them an e-mail - here is their reply -

Hello,

We sincerely apologize for this mistake...we attempted to send a corrected email after the original, but are unsure how many received it.

We are very sorry.

From: mail-storm@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov
Subject: Welcome to the NHC/TPC Advisory Mailing List
Date: Fri, 28 April 2005 22:12:00 -0000

------------------------------------------------------------------
*** CORRECTION - NO STORM ***

* REPEAT - NO ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE *

Automated Advisory Email Service
------------------------------------------------------------------

In preparation for the start of the 2006 Hurricane Season, an automated email advisory was sent by mistake by the National Hurricane Center.

We sincerely regret this event and are taking steps to ensure that it does not happen again.





Christopher Juckins
Meteorologist / Webmaster
National Hurricane Center | http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Tropical Prediction Center | nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov

Christopher Juckins
Meteorologist / Webmaster
National Hurricane Center | http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Tropical Prediction Center | nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov

[TS Zack]

Someone hacked into the National Hurricane Center and sent it out.

[brunota2003]

Someone hacked into the National Hurricane Center and sent it out.

not completely true...even on the page where you sign up for the emails it states that the emails are still experimental...so it may of been a bug...

[Windy]

Someone hacked into the National Hurricane Center and sent it out.

I really doubt that. If you're going to hack into a government server and send out misinformation, it would at least make sense to send out misinformation that makes sense, non? Why send out misinformation timestamped for two months in the future?

More likely someone was doing a test of some sort and forgot to shut off the automated email system.

[Ivan14]

That's crazy that some guy in New Orleans reported it as the real thing. That would scare anybody that's in the New Orleans area.

[SouthFloridawx]

That's crazy that some guy in New Orleans reported it as the real thing. That would scare anybody that's in the New Orleans area.

Oh good lord. Figures people wouldn't call someone to verify it. They could even call thier local tv weather people and ask them. Or even call noaa to see. That is plain old ignorance...

I have a feeling everything is going to get blown out of proportion this year and hurricane season will be held up to a spotlight and examined every which way.

[OuterBanker]

Hello! It's dated June 8, 2006.