91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[skysummit]

OMG....one of my co-workers just called me up and wanted to know why I didn't send an email out warning everyone of the tropical depression that was in the gulf. Where are these people getting this stuff??? It took a few minutes, but I set him straight.

[MiamiensisWx]

This is a sign of things to come... read this prophecy now! I guarantee that it is 100% accurate!

[southerngale]

OMG....one of my co-workers just called me up and wanted to know why I didn't send an email out warning everyone of the tropical depression that was in the gulf. Where are these people getting this stuff??? It took a few minutes, but I set him straight.

I don't know, but I got this from the NHC in an email about 15 minutes ago.

ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
2100 UTC WED JUN 08 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800 UTC CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600 UTC 18.1N 84.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800 UTC 19.9N 84.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600 UTC 22.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800 UTC 24.5N 86.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800 UTC 29.0N 88.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800 UTC 34.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800 UTC 37.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA


$$
NNNN

Edit: Whoops, I see it was already posted in here. I only had a second and went to the last page and saw skysummit's post.

[MiamiensisWx]

southerngale, that is odd.

I have no idea - it was just emailed to me from the NHC.

Hmm... very strange indeed.

[cycloneye]

Kelly that is a test as the position they put there is very different from what the invest has which is at 31n-72w.

[clfenwi]

With the exception of the year, the text is identical to that of the first TD advisory from last year: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/ma ... .001.shtml

[MiamiensisWx]

Wow... look how many people or logged on in Storm2K right now!

Registered Users: Alacane2, ALhurricane, Aquawind, Audrey2Katrina, CajunMama, CapeVerdeWave, caribepr, clfenwi, conestogo_flood, CrazyC83, cycloneye, Derecho, edenisleswx, fact789, HURAKAN, Hurricaneman, Hybridstorm_November2001, JamesFromMaine2, jschlitz, lester88, Matt-hurricanewatcher, MaxiBide, mikey mike, MS39047, Scorpion, skysummit, snoopj, Tampa Bay Hurricane

[jasons2k]

southerngale, that is odd.

I have no idea - it was just emailed to me from the NHC.

Hmm... very strange indeed.

I agree with Luis, I think it's just a test given the date & location listed.

[caribepr]

Kelly that is a test as the position they put there is very different from what the invest has which is at 31n-72w.

I just got the email from NHC...saw the date, figured it was a test but came here to be sure. That was an eye-opener on a lazy afternoon!

[MiamiensisWx]

I think so as well, jschlitz.

[whereverwx]

southerngale, that is odd.

I have no idea - it was just emailed to me from the NHC.

Hmm... very strange indeed.

I agree with Luis, I think it's just a test given the date & location listed.

Wouldn't they tell you it's a test? I think it's a glitch or an error.

[MiamiensisWx]

If it isn't a test, it is probably an error. I think something similar to this happened before.

[MiamiensisWx]

I just got the email from NHC...saw the date, figured it was a test but came here to be sure. That was an eye-opener on a lazy afternoon!

I agree. This really perked things up! I think it's just an error or something like that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe they see something...

[wjs3]

NHC TD #1 email freaked me out too. They should know better than to scare us like that!

In case there's anyone reading who doesn't know about it, you can sign up to get all advisories for the NHC emailed to you at the site. It kills, except for stuff like this!

[wxboy222]

I wouldn't worry about it. There is nothing where the adv was issued. Possibly they screwed up the text. We'll see soon. I'm sure they're getting a lot of phone call right now

[artist]

could this be a hack job? notice on the advisory it isn't even near Puerto Rico as well. I would think a test would at least be somewhat accurate as well.

[Aquawind]

Well I know the NHC forecasters read these and doubt the Marine forecast would miss mentioning anything an Invest was issued for.. zippo notta nuttin.. Same goes for the discussion.. The date says June 8th.. Test ..Mistake.. whatever..

000
AGXX40 KNHC 281706
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT FRI APR 28 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC AREA WITH AN AXIS ALONG
71W. A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN AXIS
ALONG 93W. THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES DROP INTO THE TROUGH. LATER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH. BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE ROTATED NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE...
THE MAJOR SYSTEM IS A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH MONDAY THEN...AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES NORTHEAST...SO DOES THE SURFACE LOW. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW BEGINNING TONIGHT AND ENDING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY BUT
THE ASSOCIATED FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT. A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IS A
BUILDING RIDGE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY.

TRADES ARE LESS THAN NORMAL AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
GALE WARNING...AMZ080...N OF 28N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER LL

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281708
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N1W 3N20W 1N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N
OF THE AXIS E OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 9N TO 7S BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR VARACRUZ MEXICO NEAR
17N95W. A RIDGE EXTENDS N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
ALONG 30N95W CONTINUING E INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
UPPER FLOWS DIVES SE ACROSS ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N78W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW THEN TURNS CYCLONIC INTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
OVER THE E PACIFIC BETWEEN 115W AND 129W...STREAMS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 24N106W 27N101W 32N96W. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH IT WAY THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS BECOMING ILL DEFINED AS IT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
CUBA...AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N87W EAST OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF E OF 85W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALOFT...A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTEND ACROSS THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 20N75W TO
15N78W....THIS TROUGH IS BRINING DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE WEST
INDIES. ELSEWHERE...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA...STREAMING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA S OF 16N... AT THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
S OF 12N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W SPREADS NE IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHERWISE ISOLATED
TRADE WIND CUMULUS IS MOVING W THROUGH THE WATERS S OF 20N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WESTERN SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ITS MEAN AXIS LYING N TO S ALONG 73W. DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
ENHANCING CONVECTION AHEAD. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A
1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N72W TO 22N87W. THE CONVECTION WELL OUT IN
FRONT AND IS CONCENTRATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM
30N67W 27N70W. IMMEDIATELY E...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM
NEAR 19N61W ALONG 26N57W 32N56W...THEN CONTINUES NE TO WELL N
OF THE AREA EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING THE TROUGH ALONG THE E COAST
OF CONUS FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL N
ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 39N41W WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 25N64W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.
THE EXTREME E ATLC...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 8N7E
AND RIDGES W ALONG 7N47W.

$$
JP/LL

[bvigal]

OK, let's be really clear for all new visitors:

1. The "invest" is not a joke or hack, it's an area of interest between carolinas and bermuda, a surface low.

2. The NHC advisory mailing is a test same as done every year.

[canetracker]

OMG....one of my co-workers just called me up and wanted to know why I didn't send an email out warning everyone of the tropical depression that was in the gulf. Where are these people getting this stuff??? It took a few minutes, but I set him straight.

It seems the local radio station, WWL radio, broadcasted some false alert. Maybe they got the NHC test e-mail too and took it literally. However, they did go back and correct the error.