Bay of Bengal:VSCS Mala Possible catastrophe for Myanmar Thread #1
28/0830 UTC 15.1N 92.4E T6.0/6.0 02B -- Bay of Bengal
TC ADVISOTRY
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DTG : 20060428/0600Z
TCAC : NEW DELHI
TC : MALA
NR : 12
PSN : N1500 E09200
MOV : NE 12KT
C : 964HPA
MAX WIND : 90KT
FCST PSN + 12HRS : 281800 N1630 E09230
MAX WIND + 12HRS : 100KT
FCST PSN + 18HRS : 290000 N1700 E09300
MAX WIND + 18HRS : 105KT
FCST PSN + 24HRS : 290600 N1730 E09330
MAX WIND + 24HRS : 110KT
NEXT MSG : 20060428/1200 Z
WTIO31 PGTW 280900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MALA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 92.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 92.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.9N 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 034 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
034 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
034 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
034 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 058 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
058 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
057 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
057 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 112 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
109 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
108 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
111 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.1N 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 037 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
037 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
036 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
036 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 062 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
062 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
114 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
116 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.1N 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.0N 97.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 92.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (MALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS
TC 02B HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
HAS INCREASED SPEED TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST. THE OUTFLOW
CHANNELS CONTINUE TO VENT THE SYSTEM ALLOWING TC 02B TO INCREASE
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND
AROUND TAU 24, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.
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