Your early-morning-line target area for '06's The Big One?

[Steve]

I usually focus on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, and I haven't really even looked at anything yet. But something's telling me South Alabama and maybe South Texas as targets for IH's this year. I'll look at it again at the end of next month, but an NE-Central Gulf storm and maybe something south of Corpus seem reasonable. Dumb luck if they hit

Steve

[MiamiensisWx]

How about the open Atlantic?

[Clint_TX]

One word: Georgia

[terstorm1012]

I'm interested in your ideas, steve, as I've sortakinda thought the same thing.

I am basically thinking that ENSO would be neutral...and a "Ridge of Death" will set up over the Midwest with troughiness in the East. There's already some evidence...look at the last storm that left the coast.

This supports more Fish, and IMO, gulf storms (though I think the Ridge of Death would protect the parts of the coast laid waste the last two years).

This is open to critique, and is unofficial, and I'm still developing it.

[Huckster]

Seems like in La Nina years that big ridge does set up over the central US, which would help protect some of the Gulf and maybe keep more storms out to sea, but last thing I heard is now La Nina is supposedly fading away. Whatever the case is, those waters off South America are cool and the SST anomalies in the Atlantic and especially the Gulf are up over the last month.

[Ivan14]

Wow they have warmed up fast. Is there supposed to be a High pressure in the Midwest? I herd something about it on Accuweather.

[terstorm1012]

yes Ivan, a number of forecasters are predicting a hot Summertime Ridge over the Midwest.

[Javlin]

Well the fact that we are turning Neutral again should mean a different ridge placement most likely?Now it is still to early to say but we go 4-5 months with hardly no Rain(La Nina) then the last week 3days.This is nothing to bet your bottom dollar on but if it continues then the high that we had for so long has shifted some.The I would have to agree with Steve.If the rain continues for the next few weeks the GOM might be a hot bed again just do not think a lot of homebrews via old fronts but from the Atlantic waves.That being said from my point of view not an early season like last summer.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I usually focus on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, and I haven't really even looked at anything yet. But something's telling me South Alabama and maybe South Texas as targets for IH's this year. I'll look at it again at the end of next month, but an NE-Central Gulf storm and maybe something south of Corpus seem reasonable. Dumb luck if they hit

Steve

Those abnormally high water temps in the gulf will only continue to get
warmer with drought conditions continuing over FL/Gulf Coast/SE US.
I expect very high water temps in the GOM by later this summer/fall.
Therefore a major storm is likely in the Gulf IMO, making the gulf
coast a danger zone yet again this year .
I would have to say Gulf Coast from Texas to LA to Mississippi

[jusforsean]

so mabey south florida will be in the clear this year?????????????????????

[Scorpion]

so mabey south florida will be in the clear this year?????????????????????

Um what? I actually have a bad feeling for us this season.

[terstorm1012]

I think all will depend on just how large the Midwestern Ridge is...and where the trough sets up in the East.

[Steve]

Well high pressure set up over the central US
would fairly mimick the troughs that set up
over the winter. But there's always the Bermuda
Ridge as well which usually ebbs and flows. The key
would be whether or not it connects up with the central
US ridge as a rule or as an exception. Obviously,
we'll have to wait and see how the summer pattern
evolves. Last year, many of the highs moving across
the Carolinas hooked up with the ridge sitting in the
Atlantic. You could watch it on the time-lapse shoots.

One key is gonna be whether or not La Nina (in the
Eastern Pacific) stays in place. I think that's as much
of a key as to whether or not the Pacific is neutral as
a whole or neutral including off of South America.

Also, the waters off the NE Coast are anomalously warm.
One of the things that is relevant to possible storm tracks
is the reversal of water temperatures between March and June.
If something now cold/hot shows a dramatic change between
last month and the start of the hurricane system, a lot can
be read into that.

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is going to be Texas' year (and I am not saying this because I live here). Texas, has been, for the most part, sparred for the last few years. Nature can not be this kind forever. I am predicting AT LEAST 2 named storms (probably both Hurricanes) to make landfall in Texas this year.

[GalvestonDuck]

This is going to be Texas' year (and I am not saying this because I live here). Texas, has been, for the most part, sparred for the last few years. Nature can not be this kind forever. I am predicting AT LEAST 2 named storms (probably both Hurricanes) to make landfall in Texas this year.

C'mere and let me kick ya hard!!

Kidding, of course...sort of.

[terstorm1012]

I hadn't counted in the anomolies off the NE coast...

I guess...if the two Ridges link up, it could be terrible in terms of where the storms would go. But for now I'm thinking there'll be a trough off the East Coast and the ridges won't link up...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I know that in my recent research of my Local Weather Data Archives, and Maine and New Brunswick News Papers, that I found something rather interesting; the really damaging storms that occurred in the 1930s, 1940s and early 1950s occurred during years with Dry Springs and Summers, and then switching to Wet late Summers and Falls. At least in my own part of the World. Same as it has been this Spring, thus far. Probably doesn't mean anything, just thought I'd throw it out there.

[ROCK]

This is going to be Texas' year (and I am not saying this because I live here). Texas, has been, for the most part, sparred for the last few years. Nature can not be this kind forever. I am predicting AT LEAST 2 named storms (probably both Hurricanes) to make landfall in Texas this year.

I agree. 1+ for TX and 2+ for FL seems a reasonable prediction.

[skysummit]

I'm going to say we're all going to get one. 1 major for Texas, 1 major for Louisiana, 1 cat 2 for Mississippi, a cat 1 for Mobile, 2 hurricanes for the panhandle including 1 major, and a cat 3 for the area near Fort Meyers.

[Jim Cantore]

This mind as well be in a casino, one by one by one they'll form, where they'll go is anyones guess.