Bay of Bengal: VSCS Mala - Possible catastrophe for Myanmar

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

People look at the 85h data on nrl...It now has a intense eye...


Update 3#/10pm pst/4-25-2006

Upper level shear appears to becoming slowly more faverable...With the southeastly shear moving southward/southwestward away from cyclone. Latest satellite out of cimss shows a 4.6t/Sab 4.0t. The cyclone shows very good outflow with a tight central core. Cdo temperature is around minus 75 degrees. 85h data shows that the system now has a closed eyewall with a intense one at that...So its more likely that the system maybe a little stronger then the 65 knots based on sab...So 70 knots is the current winds based by me...

Forecasted track should be a slow north-northeastward track fellowed by a slow speed up to the northeast after 24 hours...

Upper level enviroment should improve to 5 knots by 6 hours. With outflow and strengthing convection...

0 70 knots
6 75 knots
12 80 knots
24 85 knots
36 85 knots

Forecaster Matthew

#Note# The cyclone could very well strengthen much faster based on the closeds eyewall+developing upper ridge. But choosing to remind low on this...

This is not a offical forecast...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No. BOB/1/2006/ 17 Dated 27th April 2006







Subject: Severe Cyclonic Storm over southeast Bay of Bengal


The Cyclonic Storm “MALA” over southeast Bay of Bengal moved very slowly northwards and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm which lay centred today morning at 0830 hrs. IST near Lat. 12.50 N and Long. 90.50 E, about 250 km west-northwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a north-northeasterly direction.



The numerical models as well as synoptic patterns continue to suggest that the system may intensify further and track in a northeasterly direction towards Arakan coast with a possible landfall on 30th April.



Under its influence, scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman Islands during next 48 hours. Gale force winds reaching 70-80 kmph also likely over Andaman Islands during the same period.





When was the last severe system?

[James]

The last storm to attain the same kind of strength Mala has in the Bay of Bengal was 01B in 2003 and the last intense cyclone in the Northern Indian Ocean was 01A in 2001. If you want to find intense storms in the Bay of Bengal you have to go back to 1999. The JTWC now take Mala up to 115kts.

[cycloneye]

27/0830 UTC 12.7N 90.0E T4.5/4.5 MALA -- Bay of Bengal

[HurricaneHunter914]

That's a Cat-4!

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow this is simply breathtaking, someone post some visibles.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MALA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 89.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 89.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.4N 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.2N 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.0N 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.0N 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 89.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (MALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS A SURGE OF RADIAL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. TC 02B IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO
ITS LOCATION UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER MYANMAR. THE INTENSITY OF TC 02B SHOULD INCREASE
AT A CLIMOTOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO FORECASTED WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24,
PROXIMITY TO LAND AND WEAKENED OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 28
FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/satshots/io0206sams.jpg

IF THIS FORECAST VERIFIES, MALA WILL BE THE FIRST MAJOR CYCLONE (WINDS 115 MPH OR MORE) TO DEVELOP IN THE NIO SINCE TC 05B IN 1999.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow, that's really impressive Hurakan.

And you just know this is gonna fuel the GW debate

[bvigal]

Great sat pic! However, I have a comment, very respectfully: thought we were supposed to stop loading images that make one have to scroll horizontally? I'm using 1280 x 1024 and can't see the whole thing on my screen without scrolling, can just imagine the angst of a 1024x768 user.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=83414
Cycloneye wrote "Another thing that will change is the posting of images. Some members post images that are very large that we have to scroll to look at them at the post. What we will say to the members is to post links to the images to not hurt the bandwidth of the site."

[HURAKAN]

Lets keep the GW debate aside and focus on what could potentially be a catastrophe for Myanmar.

[bvigal]

Here are two links to current sat pics:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet5n.GIF
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... LAY=Latest

[James]

She's certainly a very large storm. Look how much of the Bay of Bengal she takes up.

[MiamiensisWx]

Still looking good, but some shear appears to be in the area (especially on the northwest and southwest semicircles)...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

update 4#/9am pst/4-26-2006/Severe cyclone Mala


The system this morning is a very compact system, with a impressive but tight cdo...The cloud tops are 75 to 80 below at this time...Outflow is impressive all but the southern/northern quads. Data out of 85h shows that it has a very tight eye maybe no more then 5nmi across. T numbers out of sab are 4.5=77 knots/Cimss at 4.7=82 knots.

Wind shear data out of cimss shows increasing upper level shear over the southeastern quad. In shear has increased over the center to 10 knots. To the north and northwest shear is still decreasing. Outflow has started to become sheared over these area's. It is likely becoming less faverable for strengthing...

Long term as the system moves north-northeastward then to the northeast after 36 to 48 hours. The system should remind in a half way faverable enviroment. With shear increasing to 12 knots by 12 to 18 hours. Forecasting a peak near 85 knots by 24 to 36 hours.

Track a slow north-northeastward for the next 12 to 24 hours. Fellowed by a short wave to push the system to the northeast after 24 hours to 48 hours. A landfall appears likely...

Wind forecast
0 75 knots
6 80 knots
12 80 knots
24 85 knots
36 85 knots

This is not a offical forecast.

Forecaster Matthew

[HURAKAN]

No. BOB/1/2006/ 19 Dated 27th April 2006

Subject: Severe Cyclonic Storm over southeast Bay of Bengal

The Severe Cyclonic Storm “MALA” over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1430 hrs. IST near Lat. 12.50 N and Long. 90.50 E, about 250 km west-northwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a north-northeasterly direction.

The numerical models as well as synoptic patterns continue to suggest that the system may intensify further and track in a northeasterly direction towards Arakan coast with a possible landfall on 30th April.

Under its influence, scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman Islands during next 48 hours. Gale force winds reaching 70-80 kmph also likely over Andaman Islands during the same period.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off Andaman coast during the same period.

Damage Expected:-
Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Action Suggested:
Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.

096
FKIN20 VIDP 270840

TC ADVISOTRY
-----------

DTG : 20060426/0600Z
TCAC : NEW DELHI
TC : MALA
NR : 08


PSN : N1230 E09030
MOV : N 04KT
C : 990HPA
MAX WIND : 55KT

FCST PSN + 12HRS : 271800 N1300 E09030
MAX WIND + 12HRS : 60 KT
FCST PSN + 18HRS : 280000 N1330 E09100
MAX WIND + 18HRS : 65KT
FCST PSN + 24HRS : 280000 N1400 E09100
MAX WIND + 24HRS : 65 KT

NEXT MSG : 20060427/1200 Z

FORECASTED TO BECOME A VERY SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 HOURS. DOES ANYONE KNOW IF INDIA USED 1-MIN OR 10-MIN?

[MiamiensisWx]

Has it just weakened?

[HURAKAN]

Has it just weakened?

No, the 70 knots estimate is from the JTWC, and the 55 knots estimate is from India, which in this case becomes the official estimate. Nevertheless, the system intensity seems to correspond more to the JTWC estimate, but that's just my opinion!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No. BOB/1/2006/ 21 Dated 27th April 2006





Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over southeast and adjoining
east-central Bay of Bengal


The Severe Cyclonic Storm “MALA” over southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 2030 hrs. IST near Lat.13.00 N and Long. 90.50 E, about 270 km northwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a north-northeasterly direction.



The numerical models as well as synoptic patterns continue to suggest that the system may intensify further and track in a north-northeasterly direction towards Arakan coast with a possible landfall on 30th April.



Under its influence, scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman Islands during next 24 hours. Gale force winds reaching 100-120 kmph also likely over Andaman Islands during the same period.



State of the sea will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andaman coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea during the same period.



Damage Expected :-


Extensive damage to Kutcha houses. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees.



Action Suggested :-


Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

India uses 10-minute avg, JTWC uses 1-minute. I believe both intensity estimates are about the same

[HurricaneHunter914]

Hey, it looks like something is brewing in the South Indian ocean.