WTIO31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 10.5N 89.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 89.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 10.9N 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 11.3N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 11.8N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.4N 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 89.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTHWEST
OF YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE
02B REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR
PERIOD. AS 23P (MONICA) TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.
SLOW MOVEMENT, SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
