TC Monica #4: Fanni Beach (Darwin) Webcam available

[SouthFloridawx]

A report from Maningrida has described the town as "flattened". Widespread damage and several injuries.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/cyclone-flattens-remote-town/2006/04/25/1145861323110.html

thanks for the link bill!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No shoot they just got hit with 155 knot cyclone. If it was not flattened I would be very suprized. Feel bad for the people that may of lost there lifes.

[Rod Hagen]

A report from Maningrida has described the town as "flattened". Widespread damage and several injuries.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/cyclone-flattens-remote-town/2006/04/25/1145861323110.html

Thanks for that, Bill.

The Age report is by one of their best journos, Lindsay Murdoch. The police there have indicated on ABC radio that one unoccupied house has been destroyed and the school damaged. (see my post in this thread on page 7) No mention of casualties. Pretty poor communications though (ABC Darwin had been trying to contact Maningrida all morning). Be interesting to see what the real outcome is. Pretty hard to imagine the place coming through unscathed.

Cheers

Rod

[southerngale]

That is really sad. I truly feel for these people.

[Rod Hagen]

From the Sydney Morning Herald - http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/mon ... 12287.html :

Monica lets Darwin off the hook


By David Braithwaite and Jano Gibson
April 25, 2006 - 12:44PM
AdvertisementAdvertisement
Cyclone Monica has been downgraded to a category one and let Darwin - which cancelled its Anzac Day services - off the hook.

Monica had been a category five cyclone packing winds of up to 350kmh near its core when it touched down at Maningrida, in the Northern Territory's far north, about 7.30pm yesterday.

A spokeswoman for the Northern Territory Police, Fire and Emergency Services said some buildings in Maningrida had been damaged by the cyclone.

"I wouldn't say [Maningrida] got flattened [but it] certainly suffered extensive damage to some buildings and structures there.''

She was not aware of any injuries to residents there.

In a statement issued at 11.30am [AEST], the NTPFES said the community of Oenpelli had suffered extensive damage and 12 houses in Jabiru had been damaged by fallen trees.

Although the cyclone is heading south of Darwin, residents are being warned not to become complacent, as gale-force destructive winds with gusts up to 90kmh are possibile this afternoon.

Earlier today, supervising meteorologist Andrew Tupper said: "It's been downgraded to a category two - it's tracked closer to Jabiru in Kakadu National Park," he said.

"Darwin is still in the warning area and may get gales if it takes a more westerly track, but things are looking much better.

"It's down closer to Adelaide River and Batchelor - it still has destructive winds in the centre and may have heavy rain.

"We're not entirely out of the woods yet, but things are looking better than we feared."

It was feared Monica could have gathered strength if it moved over water, but it had tracked inland, Mr Tupper said.

"It made landfall a little earlier than we thought and it hasn't spent any time at all over the water," he said.

"Assuming it remains on its current path, Darwin could get strong winds and perhaps a bit of rain.

"If it changes track we can probably expect gales around Darwin."

No casualties had been reported due to the cyclone, a Northern Territory police spokeswoman said.

She said power and water had been cut off in Jabiru but police had not been notified of any serious property damage.

Goulburn Island had been in the path of the cyclone, with all but nine people evacuated to the mainland, but it appeared to have escaped serious damage.

"There's bugger all, mate," the community's clinic manager Chris Jones said. said this morning.

"There was a bit of a howling wind last night, but we didn't really get much rain.

"There's no damage I'm aware of - it hasn't even blown any of the rubbish outside around."

As a category three cyclone, Monica hit Queensland just south of Lockhart River on Cape York on Wednesday last week, causing damage to about 15 per cent of homes and destroying large amounts of vegetation before moving to sea.



Cheers

Rod

[Rod Hagen]

Darwin Radar:



Loop available at http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR633.loop.shtml

Nearly back over water.

(Edit, from the loop it looks to me as if the eye is right over Darwin at the present moment. )

Cheers

Rod

[CHRISTY]

CHRISTY, did you miss these posts? You posted after them, but didn't answer.

Hey guys I have still yet to wake up from that apparent Monica dream. I honestly cannot believe what we have seen in the past 2 days. Seeing T 8.0 from official and unofficial sources for 9 hours blows my mind. I have no doubt at all that Monica was the strongest cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere, and I would have to say that her minimum central pressure and maximum winds were close if not over world records. Even if the CIMSS estimates were overdone, to have 8.0 for 9 hours is a good indication of extreme intensity. No other storm has ever registered numbers like that. They estimated 195 mph sustained with 868 mb pressure. Her satellite appearance yesterday afternoon was almost unreal. Nevertheless, considering all of these factors and the fact that ambient pressures were slightly lower than normal in the area, I am going to put the following estimates for Monica.

Peak winds... 190 mph sustained (I am going to allow at least 5 kts overexaggeration by CIMSS, but say 190 because it held numbers at the top of the scale for an incredible 9 hours, and the fact that the JTWC usually slightly underestimate winds of intense cyclones.)

Minimum Central Pressure: 869 mb (This is the hardest estimate of them all. It is very tough to go out on a limb without accurate measurements ad say that her pressure was a world record, but I think there is a strong case to be made. The Navy at 1800 UTC yesterday estimated 155 kts and 879 mb, and also at 0000 UTC. Between those periods, Monica went through a quick burst of intensification, as noted by the remarkable satellite appearance and improvement of the CDO. Pressure responds very sensitively to changes in eyewall and CDO symmetry and overall appearance, and it is clear that between 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC, Monica showed this effect. So, coupled with the fact that CIMSS estimated under 870 mb for nearly 11 hours, it is hard to say that all of those estimates were too high. Therefore, I believe Monica probably did break the world record for pressure, and came close to tying the world record for sustained winds.)

Who are you quoting?

Hey guys I have still yet to wake up from that apparent Monica dream. I honestly cannot believe what we have seen in the past 2 days. Seeing T 8.0 from official and unofficial sources for 9 hours blows my mind. I have no doubt at all that Monica was the strongest cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere, and I would have to say that her minimum central pressure and maximum winds were close if not over world records. Even if the CIMSS estimates were overdone, to have 8.0 for 9 hours is a good indication of extreme intensity. No other storm has ever registered numbers like that. They estimated 195 mph sustained with 868 mb pressure. Her satellite appearance yesterday afternoon was almost unreal. Nevertheless, considering all of these factors and the fact that ambient pressures were slightly lower than normal in the area, I am going to put the following estimates for Monica.

Peak winds... 190 mph sustained (I am going to allow at least 5 kts overexaggeration by CIMSS, but say 190 because it held numbers at the top of the scale for an incredible 9 hours, and the fact that the JTWC usually slightly underestimate winds of intense cyclones.)

Minimum Central Pressure: 869 mb (This is the hardest estimate of them all. It is very tough to go out on a limb without accurate measurements ad say that her pressure was a world record, but I think there is a strong case to be made. The Navy at 1800 UTC yesterday estimated 155 kts and 879 mb, and also at 0000 UTC. Between those periods, Monica went through a quick burst of intensification, as noted by the remarkable satellite appearance and improvement of the CDO. Pressure responds very sensitively to changes in eyewall and CDO symmetry and overall appearance, and it is clear that between 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC, Monica showed this effect. So, coupled with the fact that CIMSS estimated under 870 mb for nearly 11 hours, it is hard to say that all of those estimates were too high. Therefore, I believe Monica probably did break the world record for pressure, and came close to tying the world record for sustained winds.)

Hi Christy. What website did you get that from? It sounds really fascinating and I'd like to visit the site too.

hey guys to avoid any problems i dont remember what webpage i saw this paragraph at so iam really sorry for the confusion. MY BAD!:cry:

[CHRISTY]

Starting to look like a mess?

[CHRISTY]

she must dumping a ton of rain and very gusty winds....

[Aslkahuna]

Doesn't matter what the satellite estimates were if there are no in situ measurements of the intensity and pressure then they remain estimates and can never be accepted as records-particularly the 869 hPa pressure estimate.

Steve

[Rod Hagen]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 71
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:07 pm CST [12:37 pm WST] Tuesday 25 April 2006

A CYCLONE WATCH is now current between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in
Western Australia.

The CYCLONE WARNING between POINT STUART and the NT/WA BORDER, including DARWIN,
the southern TIWI ISLANDS, BATCHELOR, ADELAIDE RIVER and DALY RIVER has been
cancelled.

At 1 pm CST [11:30 am WST] a TROPICAL LOW [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica] was
located over land about 13 kilometres north northeast of DARWIN and 115
kilometres east southeast of CAPE FOURCROY, and is moving west northwest at 18
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to continue moving west into the Timor
Sea for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The low is expected to
re-intensify over water overnight and move southwest towards the north Kimberley
coast during Wednesday.

Squally winds are currently being experienced over the northwestern DARWIN-DALY
district and the southern TIWI ISLANDS.

GALES may develop between the NT/WA border and KALUMBURU on Wednesday evening.
However if the cyclone moves in a more southerly directions we may see GALES
develop between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and the NT/WA border late on Wednesday.

There is a possibility of DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per
hour developing between KALUMBURU and the NT/WA BORDER early Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the TOP END and extending to the northern Kimberley during
Wednesday or Thursday.

Details of EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 1 pm CST [11:30 am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.3 degrees South 130.9 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 18 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

REPEATING: The CYCLONE WARNING between POINT STUART and the NT/WA BORDER has
been cancelled.

A CYCLONE WATCH is now current between DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in Western
Australia.

The next advice will be issued at 5 pm CST [3:30 pm WST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

[Rod Hagen]

Latest track projection from BOM

[wxmann_91]

I hate when there are confliciting reports. However I believe the inland portions of the towns are fine, but the coastal sections have been obliterated. Monica, like Katrina, was weakening at landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The mid and upper level cirulation is moving southeastward...With the LLC now off shore. The radar shows very little with a little banding. It would take at least 24 hours to even start to rebuild. I think its about dead.

[Rod Hagen]

You can get a bit of a feeling of what Maningrida was like (at least before the cyclone) from http://www.maningrida.nt.gov.au/home/home

There is a brief, updated ABC report at http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/20 ... 623504.htm :

_________________________

"Remote NT community bears cyclone's wrath as danger passes
Northern Territory Chief Minister Clare Martin says the community of Maningrida has been substantially damaged by cyclone Monica.

The cyclone cut power and telephone lines in the community and Ms Martin says she is still waiting for more information on the extent of the damage.

But she says she has been told the community school where people were sheltering lost part of its roof during the cyclone.

She says emergency teams have flown out to Maningrida to assess the damage.

"Power and Water has those teams out this morning but Emergency Services also out as well," she said.

"Committees will be meeting this afternoon to get those first assessments back [and] work [out] how the best way is to cope with the impact of cyclone Monica."

A spokeswoman for Northern Territory police says there have been no reports of injuries in Maningrida.

There is also extensive damage to phone and power services around Milingimbi and Oenpelli."

__________________


Cheers

Rod

[Rod Hagen]

THis report from Maningrida has just been posted by "The Age":

_______________
Monica flattens remote town

By Linsday Murdoch and Jane Holroyd
April 25, 2006 - 5:09PM
Related coverage
Darwin spared as cyclone heads south


Emergency services have yet to land in the Northern Territory town of Maningrida, believed to be the worst affected by cyclone Monica.

While a plane carrying staff from the NT's Department of Planning and Infrastructure flew over the area this afternoon, it is believed they could not land because there was too much debris on the airstrip.

Earlier today, freelance photographer Jake Nowakowski told The Age that the 200-strong Aboriginal community 570km south of Darwin was a "bleak picture". He said the local school, where many people took shelter, had suffered heavy damage while several people had sustained injuries.

But a spokeswoman from the Department of Planning and Infrastructure was unable to confirm whether any locals had been injured, saying the plane carrying department staff was not expected to arrive back in Darwin until late this evening.

In Jabiru, 300 kilometres south-west of Maningrida in Kakadu National Park, at least 12 houses have been damaged by falling trees.

Resident Shelley Smith told theage.com.au that the tourist town of about 1500 people looked like "a war zone" after cyclone Monica passed through just after 1am today.

She said two houses had lost their roofs. "You can't drive around because there are trees down everywhere," she said. Mrs Smith said some houses had lost power and local emergency services had been working all day to clear trees from roads.

Police Air Wing and staff from the NT Department of Planning and Infrastructure were this morning carrying out an aerial survey of Maningrida, Jabiru and Oenpelli to assess the damage.

Sandra Mitchell from Northern Territory Emergency Services said high- and low-voltage powerlines were down in all three communities, but said she had received no reports of injuries.

She confirmed reports that the school in Maningrida had been damaged, but said she believed the people sheltering there had been able to move to another part of the building.

Most buildings in the community were suffering some level of leakage and one home had collapsed off its stilts, but no one was inside at the time.

While about 200 people live in Maningrida, the community supports more than 2000 people who live on 30 out-stations around the town.

theage.com.au

________________________


Cheers

Rod

[Rod Hagen]

From the "Courier Mail" and AAP

__________________

Monica threatens again
By Jade Bilowol
April 25, 2006
This article from : AAP
CYCLONE Monica has weakened to a tropical low over the Northern Territory, but is forecast to move back to sea and intensify again before menacing Western Australia.

Monica was packing winds of up to 350kph near its core when it last night touched down at Maningrida, in the Territory's far north.

However, the category five cyclone significantly weakened once it made landfall and travelled further south and inland than predicted, after fears it would be one of the severest storms to hit Australia.

While the clean-up in Maningrida has started, Darwin emerged relatively unscathed today after preparing for the worst.

Duty forecaster Jenny Farlow said the city received rain and winds of up to 60kph as the cyclone weakened from a category one to a tropical low about 1pm (CST).

"Squally winds are currently being experienced over the northwestern Darwin-Daly district and the southern Tiwi Islands," Ms Farlow said.

"There's no damage that I'm aware of in Darwin ... for Darwin you could say that (it was a non-event) but not for other parts such as Maningrida, Jabiru and Milingimbi.

"Other parts of the Top End have experienced significantly damaging wind gusts."

A police spokeswoman warned high and low voltage powerlines were down in Maningrida, urging residents to take caution.

Heavy rain was also expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas across the Top End and extend to the northern Kimberley in Western Australia tomorrow or Thursday.

Ms Farlow said the tropical low, located about 13km northeast of Darwin, would track west and reach the Timor Sea before intensifying and possibly hitting WA.

"Once they go over the warmer waters this fuels them – they reintensify," Ms Farlow said.

"The steering is in that southwest direction to Western Australia – that top bit there will be affected."

She said Monica had the potential to intensify beyond a category two cyclone before potentially striking the WA coast.

"A cyclone watch is current between the Daly Mouth River right through to the Kimberley," Ms Farlow said.

Destructive winds with gusts of up to 150kph could develop between Kalumburu and the NT/WA border early on Thursday, the bureau said.

_____________________

Rod

[Squeako da Magnifico]

Starting to Re-Intensify again
Monica is showing some good ANZAC's tradition of keep on fighting


TOP PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 72
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Tuesday 25 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between the DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in
Western Australia.

At 4 pm CST [2:30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica] was
located over the Timor sea about 25 kilometres northwest of DARWIN and 95
kilometres southeast of CAPE FOURCROY, and is moving west northwest at 14
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to re-intensify and to start moving
southwest towards the north Kimberley coast during Wednesday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/WA border and KALUMBURU late on Wednesday. However if the cyclone moves in a
more southerly direction we may also see GALES develop between the DALY RIVER
MOUTH and the NT/WA border late on Wednesday.

There is a possibility of DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per
hour developing between KALUMBURU and the NT/WA BORDER early Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the TOP END and extending to the northern Kimberley during
Wednesday or Thursday.

Details of EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 4 pm CST [2:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.3 degrees South 130.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 14 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 75 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between DALY RIVER MOUTH and
KALUMBURU in Western Australia.

The next advice will be issued at 8 pm CST [6:30 pm WST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Coredesat]

Monica is gone from NRL and CIMSS, and the circulation is very hard to find on satellite imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... cjava.html

[Squeako da Magnifico]

Here's the radar for Darwin http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR632.loop.shtml. Convection has certainly increased since the last 6 hours. Air presure in Darwin currently 999