No way!!

[skysummit]

Oh boy.....here goes the intensity debates again.

[greeng13]

i was just thinking the same thing skysummit

[Scorpion]

The correct answer is 180 MPH.

Wrong. It was dropped to 150 mph upon landfall. Still very potent though.

[Stephanie]

All of these powerful hurricanes occurring so closely together in time does make you wonder. I'm glad that she hit a sparsely populated area.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Actually, I'm still about right....maybe not 180, maybe 175, but still, not 150:
--------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 65
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 pm CST Monday 24 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between ELCHO
ISLAND and PORT KEATS, including DARWIN, the TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and
JABIRU.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current between PORT KEATS and KALUMBURU in Western
Australia.

At 7 pm CST [5:30 pm WST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was crossing
the coast about 30 kilometres west of MANINGRIDA, which is 125 kilometres east
northeast of Oenpelli and 355 kilometres east northeast of DARWIN, and moving
west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is expected to continue to
move west southwest, and commence to weaken as it moves across northwestern
Arnhem Land tonight, but will still be a SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE as it moves
across the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area during Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350
kilometres per hour is currently affecting parts of the coast between MANINGRIDA
and GOULBURN ISLAND, and is expected to approach the DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLAND
area on Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 220 kilometres per hour.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced on the far north coast between MANINGRIDA and GOULBURN ISLAND, and
should progress further west and inland to affect the COBOURG PENINSULA and
OENPELLI tonight, and will then approach the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI
ISLANDS area during Tuesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the north of the Top End coast, and will extend westward with the cyclone,
approaching the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area from early Tuesday
morning. GALES may extend further west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia during
Wednesday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
MANINGRIDA and GOULBURN ISLAND tonight.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in across the northern Top End tonight and tomorrow.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 7 pm CST [5:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 11.8 degrees South 134.1 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 915 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current between ELCHO ISLAND and PORT KEATS,
including DARWIN, TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and JABIRU.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to KALUMBURU in Western Australia.

The next advice will be issued at 11 pm CST [9:30 pm WST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Above is the official advisory. 350 km/h at landfall, which is 220 MPH gusts. That is around 170-180 MPH 1-minute sustained. IF the BOM decides, at a later time, to reduce the windspeed at landfall, then that is their decision. However, as it stands, this is the official intensity.

[Scorpion]

I go with JTWC, and I believe they went with 130 kts.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

lol JTWC is the worst in the area, but hey, whatever floats your inaccurate boat

[Opal storm]

lol JTWC is the worst in the area, but hey, whatever floats your inaccurate boat

lol

[Scorpion]

lol JTWC is the worst in the area, but hey, whatever floats your inaccurate boat

I would rather use a US based organization that doesn't use an odd way of measuring a cyclone's intensity based on gusts and kilometers per hour.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Oh no, km/h! How scary and inaccurate! (Especially when everyone but the American public uses it)

[Scorpion]

I think the metric system should be abolished. Knots and mph are so much easier.

[greeng13]

i guess we will be fighting the rest of the world...i mean it is in levels of 10!!!! i use it in my work on a daily basis and find it a lot simpler than the standard way

[DoctorHurricane2003]

LOL....wow. This is just amazing.

[Aslkahuna]

Well any weather person worth their salt is quite capable of making the conversions very easily. The funny thing is that people on this Board and others are quite comfortable with using things like 500 mb charts and 850 mb parameters in discussing snow, etc. and yet everything in the upper air realm is strictly metric except for the winds aloft. JTWC was a bit behind on their intensities originally, however, my guess of 130kt at landfall is my own based upon what the storm looked like on satellite at the time. The JT intensity peaked at 155kt/879 mb but there was a satellite estimated pressure of 868.8 mb with a 168 kt wind that came out of the UW site and that seemed extreme. Unfortunately some have run with that number which was not support by either NRL or BOM estimates and that's what I was talking about. A point was brought up elsewhere that computerized Dvoraks may have a high bias and since it is that database of Dvorak analyses that is being used in certain GW studies we need to pin that down. Certainly the analysis seems high in this case Because while I could buy a 155kt storm I couldn't buy a 170kt storm with Monica.

Steve

[Derecho]

if they do not have reconnaissance and there are no land reports...how do they know this has winds of 180mph for sure?

They don't.

For 90%+ of the tropical cyclones on earth, nobody really knows what their pressure or their wind speed was.

I've noticed people seem to be very suprised about this-particularly when they're desperate for extreme numbers to marvel over.

Only an educated guess can be made based on satellite pics. This is a contentious issue because claims that global warming is increasing tropical cyclone intensity may, in large part, be based on garbage or horribly inconsistent data.

[Gorky]

When it made landfall at Wessel Island, it looked as strong as any storm I've seen before.. 180mph is easily possible, but theres no way we'll ever know for sure it wil lbe just conjectureand speculation... It apepared somewhat weaker at it's next landfall, despite the official and jtcw tracks showing no official weakening before it came ashore.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, to think you guys would go on and on for two pages about Monica's Winds at landfall.

[wxmann_91]

I opinion - 175 mph peak and Wessel I. landfall, 140 mph Maningrida landfall.

[AussieMark]

lol JTWC is the worst in the area, but hey, whatever floats your inaccurate boat

I would rather use a US based organization that doesn't use an odd way of measuring a cyclone's intensity based on gusts and kilometers per hour.

why would we care tho since kmh is the measurement that is used here.

Imagine the confusion if BOM decided to use mph on the advisories the average person would not know what to expect since kmh is what is used here in Australia.

converting is not difficult anyway

1 kt = 1.15 mph
1 mph = 1.6 kmh

its what I have done for years with tracking Atlantic Hurricanes and talking to u guys converting my terminology into US terminology

[Scorpion]

I believe Cape Wessel landfall was 180 mph but the other landfall was 150 mph.