My Outlook: La Nina is DONE ..How warm will SST's Get ?

[x-y-no]

Well, truly I think it's a "wait and see" but if forced to guess, I'd go for troughiness in the east.

[Jim Hughes]

I see very little chance of an el Nino this year.

I will post in the near futre about chances etc...but I am curious about your statement.

When you say this year do you mean not until 2006 is _Over_ ?

And are you talking about a specific intensity level?

I ask this because some people still question whether we had a La Nina at any time the past year. This is riidiculous. We definitely did.

The normal ENSO phases that we have been used to are different now.
I believe I might have touched base with you before about this.


Jim

[x-y-no]

I see very little chance of an el Nino this year.

I will post in the near futre about chances etc...but I am curious about your statement.

When you say this year do you mean not until 2006 is _Over_ ?

And are you talking about a specific intensity level?

I ask this because some people still question whether we had a La Nina at any time the past year. This is riidiculous. We definitely did.

The normal ENSO phases that we have been used to are different now.
I believe I might have touched base with you before about this.


Jim

Well, I do think there's a fair chance of an el Nino next year, and I would't rule out the beginnings of that happening at the end of this year. Not early enough to have any impact on the Atlantic hurricane season, though.

When it does happen, I expect a stronger than average event.

P.S. I certainly agree we had a moderate la Nina for a while. I'm not thoroughly conviced it can't return, but by far the highest probability is for neutral ENSO for the hurricane season.

[CHRISTY]

let me ask u guys a couple of questions if neutral conditions are with us in 2006...does that spell troughiness along the eastcoast?what has u guys leaning towards troughiness in 06 cause there has been a very persistant ridge so far this year.there would have to be some big changes in the coming months for all this to happen.dont u guys think?then again these patterns flip flop back and forth so its a wait and see situation in my opinion.

[x-y-no]

let me ask u guys a couple of questions if neutral conditions are with us in 2006...does that spell troughiness along the eastcoast?what has u guys leaning towards troughiness in 06 cause there has been a very persistant ridge so far this year.there would have to be some big changes in the coming months for all this to happen.dont u guys think?then again these patterns flip flop back and forth so its a wait and see situation in my opinion.

The two are not related. We had a basically neutral ENSO all last year, but strong Atlantic ridging.

My prediction of the mean trough was based on the North Pacific setup, not on ENSO.

[hurricanetrack]

I'll take that bet. SOI has been far higher this year than last. Trades are solid and the cold tongue is expanding west once again. La Nina (weak) through September 30 at the very least. After that, who knows?

[Jim Cantore]

Dont count La Nina out yet

[Jim Hughes]

Well, I do think there's a fair chance of an el Nino next year, and I would't rule out the beginnings of that happening at the end of this year. Not early enough to have any impact on the Atlantic hurricane season, though.

When it does happen, I expect a stronger than average event.

P.S. I certainly agree we had a moderate la Nina for a while. I'm not thoroughly conviced it can't return, but by far the highest probability is for neutral ENSO for the hurricane season.

I agree that the neutral conditions have the best chances of occurring. I would place neutral at about a 55% , EL Nino 45 % and La Nina 0%. Mind you this is related to an event forming in 2006. At any time.

I do not agree that a late developing El Nino could not have an effect by season's end. I believe this occurred in 2004. The tropical activity leveled off cosiderably after Karl. The late fall, as well as most of the winter, exhibited El Nino like conditons. The MEI also supported this possiblility. We just never saw full blown SST's. Once again a different type of ENSO pattern.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

I'll take that bet. SOI has been far higher this year than last. Trades are solid and the cold tongue is expanding west once again. La Nina (weak) through September 30 at the very least. After that, who knows?

The SOI and SST relationship is somewhat of a myth. I have been monitoring daily , 30 and 90 day SOI averages for almost a decade now. Along with the surface and subsurface conditions.

They can go hand and hand but you would be surprised at how things can differ. Unless we have a really strong phase.

Example. We just had the strongest 90 day positive SOI average in several years the past couple of weeks. But the SST's have warmed during this. The weekly SST averages show three out of the four regions with above average temperature anomalies. But the important one is still slightly below average, Region 3.4


Jim

[SouthFloridawx]

Jim, could you show us on the map where that region is located on a map?

Example. We just had the strongest 90 day positive SOI average in several years the past couple of weeks. But the SST's have warmed during this. The weekly SST averages show three out of the four regions with above average temperature anomalies. But the important one is still slightly below average, Region 3.4


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Jim, could you show us on the map where that region is located on a map?

Example. We just had the strongest 90 day positive SOI average in several years the past couple of weeks. But the SST's have warmed during this. The weekly SST averages show three out of the four regions with above average temperature anomalies. But the important one is still slightly below average, Region 3.4


Jim

Region 3.4 is the area between 5S-5N and 120-170W. This area is looked upon as the measuring stick when declaring a warm or cold phase is upon us. NOAA and others use this.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

I'll take that bet. SOI has been far higher this year than last. Trades are solid and the cold tongue is expanding west once again. La Nina (weak) through September 30 at the very least. After that, who knows?

The CTI is different than the La Nina. It can sometimes be a leftover effect from a La Nina or even a cousin of a PDO trend. The later might be important here. It looks like a negative PDO trend wants to start up again. That could sort a put a lid on a warming episode. At least partially.




Jim

[SouthFloridawx]

Jim is the area i have shaded below what you are talking about?

[Jim Hughes]

Jim is the area i have shaded below what you are talking about?

Yes that looks to be close to it.


Jim

[gatorcane]

Hey Jim what are you talking about? It's looking less likely like there will be an el nino and weak La nina conditions are certainly possible. I can't see how you are so confident in your thoughts. Current SST trends certainly suggest a possible weak La nina and some of the folks at the NWS that I have spoke with suggest a possible weak la nina.

Don't be so sure.

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey Jim what are you talking about? It's looking less likely like there will be an el nino and weak La nina conditions are certainly possible. I can't see how you are so confident in your thoughts. Current SST trends certainly suggest a possible weak La nina and some of the folks at the NWS that I have spoke with suggest a possible weak la nina.

Don't be so sure.

do you have any links to discussions ?

[Jim Hughes]

Hey Jim what are you talking about? It's looking less likely like there will be an el nino and weak La nina conditions are certainly possible. I can't see how you are so confident in your thoughts. Current SST trends certainly suggest a possible weak La nina and some of the folks at the NWS that I have spoke with suggest a possible weak la nina.

Don't be so sure.

What can I say. I feel very confident and when I feel this way I speak out. It's demise is what I am certain about here. Not the full blown development of the El Nino. Will the 3.4 Region be warm by the official starting date of the Atlantic hurricane season? I am 90% sure that they will be.

The colder water off of South America will move westward and it will eventually mix with enough warm water and the negative temperature anomalies will diminish in good time. The 1+2 region may stay a little cool but this does not mean that a weak La Nina is still present.


Jim

[Ivan14]

Jim I think that if there is still a La Nina it is very weak.I think it will die off completely within 1-2 months. then nutrual conditions dominate for at least the rest of hurricane season. I just dont see an El Nino developing this year.Can you tell me why you see an El Nino for this year?

[Jim Hughes]

Jim I think that if there is still a La Nina it is very weak.I think it will die off completely within 1-2 months. then nutrual conditions dominate for at least the rest of hurricane season. I just dont see an El Nino developing this year.Can you tell me why you see an El Nino for this year?

I have never said that an EL Nino will definitely form this year. I told x-y-no that a neutral phase had the best percentage chance. The seond best chance was for an EL Nino.

I am not to sure what you are looking at when you say the La Nina is still here. The last three weekly readings for the 3.4 Region were -.2, +.10, 0, . So it looks like the monthly reading for April will end up being right around neutral unless a dramatic change happens within the last week.

I would not argue about the SOI pointing towards a cold phase. Some weather patterns also do this but some of the latter relationships seem to be possibly changing. You also must consider what has occurred recently.

A directional change in the 30 mb QBO occurred earlier this month from east to west. This can shake things up and it seems to have stirred the ENSO pot up a little bit.


Jim

[Johnny]

Guess not.