TC Monica #4: Fanni Beach (Darwin) Webcam available

[Rod Hagen]

The track over the coast - threading the needle between the communities (and weather recording stations)!



Rod

[P.K.]

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060424/1200Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: MONICA
NR: 30
PSN: S1200 E13342
MOV: WSW 5KT
C: 935HPA
MAX WIND: 100KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 24/1800 S1219 E13306
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 25/0000 S1242 E13212
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 25/0600 S1249 E13125
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 25/1200 S1302 E13050
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 60KT
NXT MSG: 20060424/1800Z

[P.K.]

[CHRISTY]

she is making landfall!!

[jasons2k]

looks like the eye is starting to collapse now becuz its inland, but doesnt 155kts=180mph

Yes, this is the first time that I see a 180 mph cyclone/hurricane/typhoon making landfall with such intensity. It's just unreal and disturbing.

I agree completely. After last season, and now this incredible Australian season, record high water temps on the GOM (for April)....very disturbing indeed.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the area Cape Don to Elcho Island are requested to
use the cyclone emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 66
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Monday 24 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
MILINGIMBI and PORT KEATS, including DARWIN, the TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA
and JABIRU.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current between PORT KEATS and KALUMBURU in Western
Australia.

The CYCLONE WARNING between ELCHO ISLAND and MILINGIMBI has been cancelled.

At 10 pm CST [8:30 pm WST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 4 was located
over land about 55 kilometres west of MANINGRIDA, 80 kilometres east northeast
of Oenpelli and 310 kilometres east northeast of DARWIN, and is moving west
southwest at 14 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is expected to continue to move
west southwest and weaken as it moves across northwestern Arnhem Land tonight,
but will still be a SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE as it moves across the northwest
DARWIN-DALY area during Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 260
kilometres per hour is currently affecting parts of northwestern Arnhem Land
between MANINGRIDA and JABIRU and is expected to approach the DARWIN-DALY area
on Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 175 kilometres per hour.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced in parts of northwest Arnhem Land, between MANINGRIDA, GOULBURN
ISLAND and JABIRU, and should progress further west and inland tonight. The
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS will then approach the northwest DARWIN-DALY area during
Tuesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the northern Top End coast, and will extend westward with the cyclone,
approaching the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area from early Tuesday
morning. GALES may extend further west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia during
Wednesday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
MANINGRIDA and GOULBURN ISLAND tonight.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in across the northern Top End tonight and tomorrow.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 pm CST [8:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.0 degrees South 133.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 935 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between MILINGIMBI and PORT KEATS,
including DARWIN, TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and JABIRU.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to KALUMBURU in Western Australia.

The next advice will be issued at 2 am CST [12:30 am WST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

I THINK DARWIN IS A SAFER PLACE NOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL MORE TO THE EAST THAN EXPECTED.

[MiamiensisWx]

Any damage information/images yet?

[CHRISTY]

looks like the eye is starting to collapse now becuz its inland, but doesnt 155kts=180mph

Yes, this is the first time that I see a 180 mph cyclone/hurricane/typhoon making landfall with such intensity. It's just unreal and disturbing.

I agree completely. After last season, and now this incredible Australian season, record high water temps on the GOM (for April)....very disturbing indeed.

yep iam telling u guys to me i think our BASIN is next... its only a matter of time!

[CronkPSU]

looks like the eye is starting to collapse now becuz its inland, but doesnt 155kts=180mph

Yes, this is the first time that I see a 180 mph cyclone/hurricane/typhoon making landfall with such intensity. It's just unreal and disturbing.

I agree completely. After last season, and now this incredible Australian season, record high water temps on the GOM (for April)....very disturbing indeed.

yep iam telling u guys to me i think our BASIN is next... its only a matter of time!

true but that time may be a hundred years from now

[feederband]

looks like the eye is starting to collapse now becuz its inland, but doesnt 155kts=180mph

Yes, this is the first time that I see a 180 mph cyclone/hurricane/typhoon making landfall with such intensity. It's just unreal and disturbing.

I agree completely. After last season, and now this incredible Australian season, record high water temps on the GOM (for April)....very disturbing indeed.

yep iam telling u guys to me i think our BASIN is next... its only a matter of time!

true but that time may be a hundred years from now

Or next month...

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the area Point Stuart to Maningrida are requested to
use the cyclone emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 67
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST Tuesday 25 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
MANINGRIDA and the NT/WA BORDER, including DARWIN, the TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG
PENINSULA and JABIRU.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current between the NT/WA BORDER and KALUMBURU in Western
Australia.

The CYCLONE WARNING between MILINGIMBI and MANINGRIDA has been cancelled.

At 1 am CST [11:30 pm WST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 4 was located
over land about 65 kilometres northeast of JABIRU and 265 kilometres east of
DARWIN, and is moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is
expected to continue to move west southwest and weaken as it moves across the
DARWIN-DALY area today, but will still remain as a SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 235
kilometres per hour is currently affecting parts of northwest Arnhem Land
between MANINGRIDA and JABIRU and is expected to move across the DARWIN-DALY
area during the day with gusts to 175 kilometres per hour.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced in parts of northwest Arnhem Land, between MANINGRIDA, GOULBURN
ISLAND and JABIRU, and should progress into the DARWIN-DALY area later this
morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the northern Top End coast, and will begin to affect the DARWIN-DALY and TIWI
ISLANDS area early this morning. GALES may extend further west to KALUMBURU in
Western Australia during Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the north and western Top End today.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 1 am CST [11:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.3 degrees South 133.3 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 235 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between MAININGRIDA and the NT/WA
BORDER, including DARWIN, the TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and JABIRU.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia.

The next advice will be issued at 5 am CST [3:30 am WST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

WEAKENING CONTINUES.

[P.K.]

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 68
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [3:30 am WST] Tuesday 25 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
GOULBURN ISLAND and the NT/WA BORDER, including DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS, but
not including the COBOURG PENINSULA. A CYCLONE WARNING is also current for
inland communities in the Darwin-Daly district including BATCHELOR, DALY RIVER
and ADELAIDE RIVER.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current between the NT/WA BORDER and KALUMBURU in Western
Australia.

The CYCLONE WARNING between MANINGRIDA and GOULBURN ISLAND and over the COBOURG
PENINSULA has been cancelled.

At 4 am CST [2:30 pm WST] TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 2 was located over
land about 15 kilometres west southwest of JABIRU and 200 kilometres east of
DARWIN, and is moving west southwest at 20 kilometres per hour. The cyclone has
weakened significantly over the past few hours. It is expected to continue to
move west southwest and weaken as it moves across the DARWIN-DALY district
today, but will still remain as TROPICAL CYCLONE.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced near JABIRU and should progress into the DARWIN-DALY area this
morning before the cyclone weakens further.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
within 75 kilometres of the centre near JABIRU, and will progress further across
the DARWIN-DALY area during today. GALES may develop over DARWIN and the
southern TIWI ISLANDS this afternoon if the cyclone takes a more westerly track.


GALES may extend further west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia during
Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the north and western Top End today.

Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 4 am CST [2:30 am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.7 degrees South 132.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 125 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 2
. Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between GOULBURN ISLAND and the
NT/WA BORDER, including DARWIN, the TIWI ISLANDS, JABIRU, BATCHELOR and ADELAIDE
RIVER.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia.

The next advice will be issued at 8 am CST [6:30 am WST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Audrey2Katrina]

looks like the eye is starting to collapse now becuz its inland, but doesnt 155kts=180mph

Yes, this is the first time that I see a 180 mph cyclone/hurricane/typhoon making landfall with such intensity. It's just unreal and disturbing.

I agree completely. After last season, and now this incredible Australian season, record high water temps on the GOM (for April)....very disturbing indeed.

yep iam telling u guys to me i think our BASIN is next... its only a matter of time!

true but that time may be a hundred years from now

Or next month...

umm... I think "our basin" already had this kind of year--it was called 2005. I rather doubt 2006 will remotely resemble that year when all is said and done... and I pray it doesn't as well.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Maximum sustained wind = 51 Knots Maximum gust 80 Knots.

IF those are accurate, the area of maximum force winds must be extremely narrow. Isn't Maningrida about 18 mi. or so from the exactl landfall? Granted it's on the weaker side but still with a storm of this intensity they must wrap very close to the COC to drop down to only TS speeds less than 20 miles away. That said, I'm glad for those people that her radius of max winds wasn't any larger.

A2K

[WindRunner]

Maximum sustained wind = 51 Knots Maximum gust 80 Knots.

IF those are accurate, the area of maximum force winds must be extremely narrow. Isn't Maningrida about 18 mi. or so from the exactl landfall? Granted it's on the weaker side but still with a storm of this intensity they must wrap very close to the COC to drop down to only TS speeds less than 20 miles away. That said, I'm glad for those people that her radius of max winds wasn't any larger.

A2K

Actually, it's on the strong side of the storm. Southern hemisphere means that the worst quadrant is front left.

[Rod Hagen]

Yes, looking at them again the figures do seem strange.

The same goes for those from Jabiru, which reported continuously as Monica passed close by.

Neither Maningrida nor Millingimbi figures are back on line.

I see that Monica is now tracking further to the north than BOM had predicted a few hours ago (bringing her closer to Darwin), and contrary to the earlier prediction, remains a cat 2, rather than dropping to a cat 1 by this point.

The possibility seems to remain that Monica may regain strength if it reaches the Joseph Bonaparte gulf.

Rod

[CHRISTY]

[P.K.]

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 69
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST [6:30 am WST] Tuesday 25 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
OENPELLI and the NT/WA BORDER, including DARWIN and the southern TIWI ISLANDS. A
CYCLONE WARNING is also current for inland communities in the Darwin-Daly
district including BATCHELOR, DALY RIVER and ADELAIDE RIVER.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current between the NT/WA BORDER and KALUMBURU in Western
Australia.

The CYCLONE WARNING between GOULBURN ISLAND and OENPELLI has been cancelled.

At 7 am CST [5:30 pm WST] TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 2 was located over
land about 80 kilometres west of JABIRU and 135 kilometres east southeast of
DARWIN, and is moving west southwest at 20 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is
expected to continue moving to the west southwest and weaken to a CATEGORY 1
cyclone as it moves across the DARWIN-DALY district today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced west of JABIRU and should progress into the DARWIN-DALY area this
morning before the cyclone weakens further.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
within 75 kilometres of the centre, and will progress further across the
DARWIN-DALY area during today. GALES may develop over DARWIN and the southern
TIWI ISLANDS this afternoon if the cyclone takes a westerly track.

GALES may extend further west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia during
Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas across the north and western Top End today.

Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 7 am CST [5:30 am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 12.7 degrees South 132.1 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 125 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 2
. Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between OENPELLI and the NT/WA
BORDER, including DARWIN, the southern TIWI ISLANDS, BATCHELOR, ADELAIDE RIVER
AND DALY RIVER.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia.

The next advice will be issued at 11 am CST [9:30 am WST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Jim Cantore]

Any damage reports in yet?

[HURAKAN]

Any damage reports in yet?

NONE SO FAR. BUT I GUESS IT'S BECAUSE IT MADE LANDFALL IN A VERY UNPOPULATED AND POOR AREA. THEREFORE, ANY DAMAGE SHOULD BE CONSIRABLE MINOR.