Bay of Bengal: VSCS Mala - Possible catastrophe for Myanmar

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N 91.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING
IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. A 231412Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ILL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR UNDER THE DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
SINCE THE LLCC REMAINS UNCONSOLIDATED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

This system seems to be starting to take shape, but ALL the attention is going to Mónica!!!

[P.K.]

I've been checking the IMD forecasts for the last couple of days but not much there at the moment.

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2006 04 23 1800 UTC 23 APRIL 2006

PART-I :-NO STORM WARNING
PART-II:-THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SE BAY AND ADJ SOUTH
ANDAMAN SEA PERSISTS(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)(.)

PART-III:- FORECAST

ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N WEST OF 80 DEG E.
I)WIND:-EAST OF 65 DEG. E:-NW 10/15 KTS BEC. W-LY TO THE
S OF 04 DEG.N(.) WEST OF 65 DEG.E:-MAINLY N/NW-LY
10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.)

ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG.N.
I)WIND:-ANTICYCLONIC 10/15 KTS AROUND THE AXIS OF 17 DEG.N(.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- GOOD (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.)

BOB-A3-BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 12 DEG.N.EAST OF 80 DEG E.
I)WIND:-WEST OF 85 DEG. E:-W/SW 10/15 KTS (.)
EAST OF 85 DEG. E:-CYCLONIC AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT.
08 DEG.N AND LONG 90 DEG.E (.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV)STATE OF SEA:- SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.)

BOB-A4-BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 12 DEG.N.
I)WIND:-E/NE 10/15 KTS BEC ANTICYCLONIC AROUND THE AXIS OF
15 DEG.N (.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-GOOD (.)
IV)STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

[HurricaneHunter914]

As long as it has a circulation to it, it still has a chance.

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneHunter914]

Seems like this thing is getting an eye.

[CHRISTY]

[HurricaneHunter914]

Definitly getting organized.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Certainly seems to be very good poleward outflow there!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We have to go back to 1999 to see a powerful storm there.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/ind ... index.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

24/0230 UTC 8.4N 91.1E T1.0/1.0 94B -- Bay of Bengal

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow really starting to look good...Appears to be a central area of convection forming over a broad LLC. This will likely develop!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[P.K.]

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2006 04 24 0900 UTC 24 APRIL 2006

PART-I :-NO STORM WARNING
PART-II:-THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SE BAY AND ADJ SOUTH
ANDAMAN SEA APPRENTLY PERSISTS(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)(.)

PART-III:- FORECAST

ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N WEST OF 80 DEG E.
I)WIND:-NW/W 20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:- GOOD(.)
IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE TO ROUGH (.)

ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG.N.
I)WIND:-SW 15/20 KTS BEC N/NW TO THE EAST OF 68 DEG.N(.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- GOOD (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE (.)

BOB-A3-BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 12 DEG.N.EAST OF 80 DEG E.
I)WIND:W/SW 15/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT.
08 DEG.N AND LONG 91 DEG.E (.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV)STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE (.)

BOB-A4-BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 12 DEG.N.
I)WIND:-ANTICYCLONIC AROUND THE AXIS OF LAT. 14 DEG.N (.)
II)WEATHER:- ISOLATED (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN(.)
IV)STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
++++

[CHRISTY]

wow its really developing rather quickly...take a look!

[CHRISTY]

you can clearly see it developing rather quickly on these IR images...

[HURAKAN]

IF IT'S NOT ALREADY, IT'S VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING AT LEAST A DEPRESSION.

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3N 91.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT ANI-
MATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS ENHANCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MOD-
ERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UNDER THE DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTI-
MATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND INCREASED UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.


READY TO SAY, "BYE MONICA" AND "WELCOME NEW SYSTEM."

[CHRISTY]

TD. IN THE MAKING....

[CHRISTY]

HEY GUYS THIS IS WHAT IAM SEEING WITH THIS NEW SYSTEM...TD. VERY SOON IF NOT ALREADY.

[HURAKAN]

24/1430 UTC 8.1N 90.0E T1.5/1.5 94B -- Bay of Bengal


INCREASING!!!

[HURAKAN]

A NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO BEING BORN.