Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

#321 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:15 pm

Now I see it...the Australian storms are so difficult to figure out since they use gusts to make estimates. Based on its really low pressure, I wouldn't be surprised if Carina really was a Category 5 - do they use Hurricane Hunters outside the Atlantic and EPAC?

benny · #322 Postby **benny** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:16 pm

Rod Hagen wrote:Does this radar image suggest an eyewall replacement?

Cheers

Rod

It could but we really don't understand how these things work.. sometimes they stay w/ several moats stable for quite some time

#323 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:19 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Now I see it...the Australian storms are so difficult to figure out since they use gusts to make estimates. Based on its really low pressure, I wouldn't be surprised if Carina really was a Category 5 - do they use Hurricane Hunters outside the Atlantic and EPAC?

Unfortunately, NO.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #324 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:27 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Now I see it...the Australian storms are so difficult to figure out since they use gusts to make estimates. Based on its really low pressure, I wouldn't be surprised if Carina really was a Category 5 - do they use Hurricane Hunters outside the Atlantic and EPAC?

CPAC and maybe WPAC if the DoD allows...

As for Aussie storms... they give sustained winds in the marine bulletins.

Rod Hagen · #325 Postby **Rod Hagen** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:29 pm

http://thestormtrack.com/archives/2006/ ... e_aus.html has a useful rough comparison chart of Australian and US categories

Cheers

Rod

benny · #326 Postby **benny** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:33 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.8 / 876.9mb/164.0kt
:eek:

wxmann_91 · #327 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:35 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... ava26.html

Good loop, very impressive

benny · #328 Postby **benny** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:35 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt26.html

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 APR 2006 Time : 023300 UTC
Lat : 11:28:40 S Lon : 137:37:17 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.8 / 876.9mb/164.0kt

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +10.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24.2km

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9

Eye Temp : +19.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C

that's getting into rarified air.. :eek:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #329 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:35 pm

benny wrote:CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.8 / 876.9mb/164.0kt

That is just crazy.
Thanks for keeping us up to date...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #330 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:35 pm

Houston we got a problem!!!! :eek:

#331 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:37 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Houston we got a problem!!!!

In this case, Darwin we got a problem!!!

benny · #332 Postby **benny** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:40 pm

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... pical.html

A loop is under MTSAT 1... IR pictures.. just remember to change the channel to #4 Enhanced IR

benny · #333 Postby **benny** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:45 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &SIZE=full

one of the strongest MI signatures I have ever seen.. :eek:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #334 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:48 pm

This is stronger then 140 knots even if the cimss is a little -removed-. I say 150 knots/896 millibars.

#335 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:48 pm

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #336 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:49 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is stronger then 140 knots even if the cimss is a little -removed-. I say 150 knots/896 millibars.

Officially it is ~140-145kt / 925 mb.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #337 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:52 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is stronger then 140 knots even if the cimss is a little -removed-. I say 150 knots/896 millibars.

Officially it is ~140-145kt / 925 mb.

What can I say we will never know the truth on how strong this is...

wxmann_91 · #338 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:52 pm

One of the roundest CDO's and eye I've ever seen. (click on image to enlarge)

Benny, could you reduce that URL please?

Scorpion · #339 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:54 pm

I wish I was on the tip of that peninsula right now chasing it.

benny · #340 Postby **benny** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:55 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is stronger then 140 knots even if the cimss is a little -removed-. I say 150 knots/896 millibars.

Well, CIMSS isn't -removed-.. it is an objective method.. so there is no human behind it trying to make it stronger.. unlike this board at times

I'll wait to see what the AMSU shows. the IR satellite only stuff is muy impressive though

Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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