Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If that is true then this is now at Rita pressure and Max winds.
Rita was 895mb
Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5
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Jim Cantore
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Looks like the BOM is holding back. This is stronger then Advisorie 53 but they keep it the same.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 54
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Sunday 23 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between CAPE
SHIELD and CROKER ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west for coastal and island communities between CROKER
ISLAND and DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, JABIRU and the TIWI ISLANDS.
At 10 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 160
kilometres east northeast of NHULUNBUY, and 270 kilometres east of ELCHO ISLAND,
moving west northwest at 10 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should remain close
to its current intensity as it moves towards the west, just north of the north
coast during today.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 320
kilometres per hour is expected to impact islands of northeast Arnhem Land,
including ELCHO ISLAND later this afternoon and tonight. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE
core may impact the north coast of western ARNHEM LAND during Monday but is no
longer expected to affect NHULUNBUY.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the far
northeast Arnhem Land coast, and are soon expected to extend between CAPE SHIELD
and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are expected along the far northeast coast, including
NHULUNBUY, this afternoon and move westward. GALES near the outer edge of the
cyclone may extend west as far as CROKER ISLAND early on Monday.
GALES will continue to extend westward and should be experienced over the TIWI
ISLANDS later Monday and may develop at DARWIN by Tuesday morning.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND during today.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem land today, extending across the remainder of
the northern Top End on Monday.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.4 degrees South 138.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between CAPE SHIELD and CROKER
ISLAND. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN,
JABIRU and the TIWI ISLANDS.
The next advice will be issued at 2 pm CST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 54
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Sunday 23 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between CAPE
SHIELD and CROKER ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west for coastal and island communities between CROKER
ISLAND and DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, JABIRU and the TIWI ISLANDS.
At 10 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 160
kilometres east northeast of NHULUNBUY, and 270 kilometres east of ELCHO ISLAND,
moving west northwest at 10 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should remain close
to its current intensity as it moves towards the west, just north of the north
coast during today.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 320
kilometres per hour is expected to impact islands of northeast Arnhem Land,
including ELCHO ISLAND later this afternoon and tonight. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE
core may impact the north coast of western ARNHEM LAND during Monday but is no
longer expected to affect NHULUNBUY.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the far
northeast Arnhem Land coast, and are soon expected to extend between CAPE SHIELD
and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are expected along the far northeast coast, including
NHULUNBUY, this afternoon and move westward. GALES near the outer edge of the
cyclone may extend west as far as CROKER ISLAND early on Monday.
GALES will continue to extend westward and should be experienced over the TIWI
ISLANDS later Monday and may develop at DARWIN by Tuesday morning.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND during today.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem land today, extending across the remainder of
the northern Top End on Monday.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.4 degrees South 138.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between CAPE SHIELD and CROKER
ISLAND. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN,
JABIRU and the TIWI ISLANDS.
The next advice will be issued at 2 pm CST
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
This thing is bombing...This looks more powerful in Katrina and Wilma on satellite...
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 APR 2006 Time : 003300 UTC
Lat : 11:26:02 S Lon : 137:54:25 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 893.3mb/152.0kt
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +10.5mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21.0km
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.4 7.7 8.0
Eye Temp : +10.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C
Scene Type : CLEAR EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 APR 2006 Time : 003300 UTC
Lat : 11:26:02 S Lon : 137:54:25 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 893.3mb/152.0kt
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +10.5mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21.0km
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.4 7.7 8.0
Eye Temp : +10.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C
Scene Type : CLEAR EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
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Squeako da Magnifico
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 26
- Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2006 4:54 am
- Location: Australia, QLD, Caboolture 45km north of Brisbane
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 54
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Sunday 23 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between CAPE
SHIELD and CROKER ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west for coastal and island communities between CROKER
ISLAND and DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, JABIRU and the TIWI ISLANDS.
At 10 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 160
kilometres east northeast of NHULUNBUY, and 270 kilometres east of ELCHO ISLAND,
moving west northwest at 10 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should remain close
to its current intensity as it moves towards the west, just north of the north
coast during today.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 320
kilometres per hour is expected to impact islands of northeast Arnhem Land,
including ELCHO ISLAND later this afternoon and tonight. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE
core may impact the north coast of western ARNHEM LAND during Monday but is no
longer expected to affect NHULUNBUY.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the far
northeast Arnhem Land coast, and are soon expected to extend between CAPE SHIELD
and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are expected along the far northeast coast, including
NHULUNBUY, this afternoon and move westward. GALES near the outer edge of the
cyclone may extend west as far as CROKER ISLAND early on Monday.
GALES will continue to extend westward and should be experienced over the TIWI
ISLANDS later Monday and may develop at DARWIN by Tuesday morning.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND during today.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem land today, extending across the remainder of
the northern Top End on Monday.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.4 degrees South 138.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between CAPE SHIELD and CROKER
ISLAND. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN,
JABIRU and the TIWI ISLANDS.
The next advice will be issued at 2 pm CST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 54
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Sunday 23 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between CAPE
SHIELD and CROKER ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west for coastal and island communities between CROKER
ISLAND and DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, JABIRU and the TIWI ISLANDS.
At 10 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 160
kilometres east northeast of NHULUNBUY, and 270 kilometres east of ELCHO ISLAND,
moving west northwest at 10 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should remain close
to its current intensity as it moves towards the west, just north of the north
coast during today.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 320
kilometres per hour is expected to impact islands of northeast Arnhem Land,
including ELCHO ISLAND later this afternoon and tonight. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE
core may impact the north coast of western ARNHEM LAND during Monday but is no
longer expected to affect NHULUNBUY.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the far
northeast Arnhem Land coast, and are soon expected to extend between CAPE SHIELD
and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are expected along the far northeast coast, including
NHULUNBUY, this afternoon and move westward. GALES near the outer edge of the
cyclone may extend west as far as CROKER ISLAND early on Monday.
GALES will continue to extend westward and should be experienced over the TIWI
ISLANDS later Monday and may develop at DARWIN by Tuesday morning.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND during today.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem land today, extending across the remainder of
the northern Top End on Monday.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.4 degrees South 138.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between CAPE SHIELD and CROKER
ISLAND. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN,
JABIRU and the TIWI ISLANDS.
The next advice will be issued at 2 pm CST
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
The residents of Darwin, Australia, should start thinking about possible evacuations into the heart of the territory or if they are going to ride the storm in the city, begin to prepare for a possible close and furious encounter with Mónica. It's not time to panic, they still have a few more days, but it's time already to start thinking of what they will do in case Mónica poses a greater danger.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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