Daily tropical updates and advisories

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 1:17 pm

This thread will be about the daily tropical outlook from the storm2k forecasters. David anyone on the tropical team can come here and make these updates not at the same time as I did now but if needed the updates will be on various times per day.

June 4 2:00 PM EDT:

Clouds and showers in the western gulf are associated with a trough of low pressure.Pressures are steady and not falling in the area and conditions are marginal at this time for tropical development.

In the tropical atlantic there are a couple of tropical waves moving west 10-15 kts but conditions are not favorable for development.

No tropical formation is anticipated in the next 24 hours.

Cycloneye Storm2k forecaster

southerngale · #2 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 1:23 pm

Thanks cyc

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 4:28 pm

Update at 5:00 PM EDT

An area of clouds and showers in the west gulf of mexico are associated with a trough and a low pressure that is inland over Mexico but tropical development is not expected as pressures are steady.

3 tropical waves are in the tropical atlantic but none are showing signs of development at this time.

Tropical formation is not expected thru thursday.

Cycloneye Storm2k forecaster

#4 Postby **wx247** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 4:35 pm

Good job. This thread being placed at the top should make it easier.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 4:47 pm

Yes Garrett it is better this way at the top.These updates will be several times per day but will be more frequent as events warrant.

#6 Postby **wx247** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 4:58 pm

I will be reading!

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 5:09 pm

Great JOB!!!! Cyc!! Thanks

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 7:36 pm

Tropical update=10:30 PM EDT

The GOM is dominated by 2 troughs one in the northwest part of the GOM and the other to the westsouthwest of the basin.There are some scattered showers and thunderstorms spread out in the GOM but nothing that will organize into a tropical system at this time.

There are 3 tropical waves one at 59w the other at 35w and the other one at 17w in the tropical atlantic but non of them show signs of organization although the last wave at 17w has a midlevel spin to it but conditions aloft are unfavorable for this and the other waves.

For the whole atlantic basin tropical formation is not expected thru friday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) storm2k forecaster

#9 Postby **wx247** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:58 pm

Good forecast. Thanks for the update!

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 6:33 am

Tropical update 7:30 AM EDT 5 of june

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in various areas of the GOM with an area of concentrated showers and thunderstorms in the central GOM.Upper winds are not favorable for any development as this area is associated with a surface trough in the western gulf and inland in Mexico.Pressures are steady in the GOM and not falling.

3 tropical waves are at the charts in the tropical atlantic but none of them have conditions favorable for any development.

Tropical storm formation is not expected in the atlantic basin thru friday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 8:10 am

cycloneye wrote:Tropical update 7:30 AM EDT 5 of june

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in various areas of the GOM with an area of concentrtated showers and thunderstorms in the central GOM.Upper winds are not favorable for any development as this area is associated with a surface trough in the western gulf and inland in Mexico.Pressures are steady in the GOM and not falling.

3 tropical waves are at the charts in the tropical atlantic but none of them have conditions favorable for any development.

Tropical storm formation is not expected in the atlantic basin thru friday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

Nothing significant to add to a very concise and informational update. Thanks Luis!! If there is anything of note it is that all of the models have dropped the aggressive development of the CV wave, which we expected would happen. There was just nothing indicating that there could be development in the CV region this early in the season. To say the least conditions just aren't right in that area yet.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 10:21 am

Tropical update 11:00 AM EDT June 5

Clouds and showers with thunderstorms in the GOM are related to a trough in the surface with a weak low in Mexico.Upper winds are not favorable for tropical development.

There are a few tropical waves in the tropical atlantic but conditions are not favorable for tropical development.

Tropical storm formation is not expected thru friday

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 3:07 pm

Tropical Update 4:00 PM EDT June 5

Clouds and thunderstorms persist in the westcentral GOM and this is related to a surface trough of low pressure.There haved been some winds reported by some bouys in the order of 20-25 kts and because of that T numbers haved been given to this area but it doesn't mean that development will take place right away.If this area persists for 24-36 hours then this may have better conditions aloft to get better organized but right now I see outflow boundaries and that is not good for development but all can change in a hurry and conditions improve with less shear.

The tropical atlantic is relativly quiet with the exception of some tropical waves but no development is expected from those.

Tropical storm formation is not expected in the next 24 hours.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) storm2k forecaster

#14 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 3:39 pm

Looking a little more interesting, eh Luis? Thanks for the update.

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 3:49 pm

We will have to wait and see..maybe Texas and LA will get some much needed H2o :wink:

ColdFront77 · #16 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 5:09 pm

This is a perfect example of my point of upper level wind shear having the chance of lessening 12, 24 to 36 hours before a system is in the same general area of the Atlantic Basin, in this case in the west-central Gulf of Mexico.

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 7:48 pm

Tropical update 9:00 PM EDT June 5

No big changes on the area of clouds and showers in the central GOM tonight as shear continues to be strong not letting that area organize.This area is a result of a surface trough combining with an old frontal boundary but no signs of a warm core surface low forming.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin there are tropical waves in the tropical atlantic and one about to emerge africa tommorow but no tropical development is expected from these waves as conditions are not favorable.

For the whole atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru saturday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 9:34 pm

Tropical update=10:30 PM EDT June 5

A cold core low has formed in the westcentral GOM but it has not gone to a warm core low or tropical.Clouds and thunderstorms persist in the central GOM but shear is strong not letting this disturbed area organize.The storm2k forecast team is monitering it in case it begins to organize.But what will happen is that regardless it develops or not rains will spread thru the gulf coast from Texas to the panhandle of Florida in the next couple of days.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin no signs of development from tropical waves that are located in the tropical atlantic as conditions are not favorable.

For the whole atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru saturday.

Luis Martinez ( Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#19 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jun 05, 2003 10:14 pm

Now we do have a cold core low. I am sure the S2K team is keeping an eye on it.

#20 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jun 06, 2003 2:12 am

TROPICAL UPDATE-2AM cdt -JUNE 6, 2003

As Luis stated the Storm2k forecast team is closely monitoring the non-tropical low(cold core)that has formed in the Central GOM. Shear continues to inhibit further development of this system. Pressures are remaining relatively steady ATT except for the daily ups and downs. Winds near the center of this system are in the 20-30 knot range but quickly drop off to the 15-20 knot range as you leave the "center" area. Heavy rains are expected to begin arriving on the N GOM coast during the early morning hours today and in fact have been noted on radar in S LA and S MS moving to the N. The entire system is expected to move in a NE to ENE direction and impact the Central GOM coast from around Cameron, LA East to N FL. All persons in this area should monitor their local weather statements closely in case flooding scenarios begin to develop.

Elsewhere the ATL basin is basically quiet except for a few tropical waves currently traversing the ITCZ and showing no signs of development with none expected through Saturday.

David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)-Storm2k forecaster

Daily tropical updates and advisories

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