Rise in water Vapor?

[CHRISTY]

Could a rise in Water Vapor be the cause for Stronger Hurricanes?



Here's the link...http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/hotitems/watervapor.html

[LSU2001]

Maybe Hydrogen cars are not the wave of the future????

2H2+O2= 2H2O

Even More Water Vapor
Tim

[benny]

that's in the stratosphere... above most hurricanes.

[LSU2001]

Benny you are correct but the article states that this could cause warming near the surface.
Tim

What is Causing the Steady Increase in Stratospheric Water Vapor?

For the past 23 years, balloonborne hygrometers have been used to measure stratospheric water vapor above Boulder, Colorado, in the only long-term program of its kind in the world. The Boulder profile data have shown a steady 1 %/year increase of water vapor through the entire stratosphere over the measurement period. In the stratosphere, increasing water vapor can lead to a cooling, while these same increases can lead to a warming nearer the surface. Approximately 30% of the water vapor increase can be accounted for by the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric methane that is oxidized to water. The balance of the increase in stratospheric water vapor is not explainable at present. This increase in stratospheric water vapor is shown in figures below.

[curtadams]

that's in the stratosphere... above most hurricanes.

The troposphere extends up to about 15 km in latitudes where hurricanes form http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... tropo.html So part of the chart - the part with the largest increase in water vapor, even - is very definitely in the troposphere and encompassed by most hurricanes.

[benny]

that's in the stratosphere... above most hurricanes.

The troposphere extends up to about 15 km in latitudes where hurricanes form http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... tropo.html So part of the chart - the part with the largest increase in water vapor, even - is very definitely in the troposphere and encompassed by most hurricanes.

Indeed that is the top of the troposphere... however there is so little water vapor up there I don't think it would make a difference. This is all above about 200 mb... the temperatures up there are so cold (ie below 40C) that there just isn't much up there to gain.

"In the stratosphere, increasing water vapor can lead to a cooling, while these same increases can lead to a warming nearer the surface. "

My only question there is why? I'm not qualified to answer. If you would warm the surface without changing the rest of the atmosphere the instability would increase. But that would be front page news in the world of hurricanes.. and nothing like that has been found (yet?)

[Jim Hughes]

that's in the stratosphere... above most hurricanes.

It's important in my opinion and I even wrote about this in a discussion last fall .

"Stratopshere, Ozone, and how this effects the AMO Cycle"

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570


Jim

[benny]

that's in the stratosphere... above most hurricanes.

It's important in my opinion and I even wrote about this in a discussion last fall .

"Stratopshere, Ozone, and how this effects the AMO Cycle"

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570


Jim

Whoa. Now that's a long post. Could you dissect it into smaller chunks? What is the main point (couple paragraphs or so)? I'm not a solar expert but it seems like the solar stuff has some 'hand-waving' element to it that I'm not as comfortable with. Though the same argument could be made for seasonal hurricane forecasting! FYI the AO has been very negative this winter.. but I can't tell what you are trying to argue there. There was a significant Stratospheric warming in January which I think was the final warming.. I couldn't understand your post though.

[Jim Hughes]

that's in the stratosphere... above most hurricanes.

It's important in my opinion and I even wrote about this in a discussion last fall .

"Stratopshere, Ozone, and how this effects the AMO Cycle"

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570


Jim

Whoa. Now that's a long post. Could you dissect it into smaller chunks? What is the main point (couple paragraphs or so)? I'm not a solar expert but it seems like the solar stuff has some 'hand-waving' element to it that I'm not as comfortable with. Though the same argument could be made for seasonal hurricane forecasting! FYI the AO has been very negative this winter.. but I can't tell what you are trying to argue there. There was a significant Stratospheric warming in January which I think was the final warming.. I couldn't understand your post though.

Well you would have to read the stratosphere discussions that I gave the URL's for to follow what I am talking about. They have time frame references and graphs about the different types of stratopsheric warmings.

What's my point basically ? I believe that the changes in the stratopshere might be as important as any other oceanic and atmospheric telecconection in regards to weather and climate patterns.

As far as this past January's stratospheric warming. I was one of the first to give a heads up about it, anywhere. I even used it's relationship in my snowstorm forecast for the 14th-16th of February.

Not to sure what you mean by hand waving in reference to solar stuff . I realize some of this is controversial but I started writing about this way before I wrote that discussion. If you go back you can find how I walked everyone through these space weather variables as they were unfolding.

If anyone actually monitored space weather last year they would have noticed how the tropics changed during the presence of certain space weather variables . Does this mean that there is definitely a relationship?

No but it's a start in the right direction of a promising forecasting methodology. At least in my opinion. Let's see what happens again this year. Mind you last year's discussions were not the first by any means. But it was for 99% of the people at Storm2k.


Jim

[benny]

that's in the stratosphere... above most hurricanes.

It's important in my opinion and I even wrote about this in a discussion last fall .

"Stratopshere, Ozone, and how this effects the AMO Cycle"

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570


Jim

Whoa. Now that's a long post. Could you dissect it into smaller chunks? What is the main point (couple paragraphs or so)? I'm not a solar expert but it seems like the solar stuff has some 'hand-waving' element to it that I'm not as comfortable with. Though the same argument could be made for seasonal hurricane forecasting! FYI the AO has been very negative this winter.. but I can't tell what you are trying to argue there. There was a significant Stratospheric warming in January which I think was the final warming.. I couldn't understand your post though.

Well you would have to read the stratosphere discussions that I gave the URL's for to follow what I am talking about. They have time frame references and graphs about the different types of stratopsheric warmings.

What's my point basically ? I believe that the changes in the stratopshere might be as important as any other oceanic and atmospheric telecconection in regards to weather and climate patterns.

As far as this past January's stratospheric warming. I was one of the first to give a heads up about it, anywhere. I even used it's relationship in my snowstorm forecast for the 14th-16th of February.

Not to sure what you mean by hand waving in reference to solar stuff . I realize some of this is controversial but I started writing about this way before I wrote that discussion. If you go back you can find how I walked everyone through these space weather variables as they were unfolding.

If anyone actually monitored space weather last year they would have noticed how the tropics changed during the presence of certain space weather variables . Does this mean that there is definitely a relationship?

No but it's a start in the right direction of a promising forecasting methodology. At least in my opinion. Let's see what happens again this year. Mind you last year's discussions were not the first by any means. But it was for 99% of the people at Storm2k.


Jim

Again I guess I miss the point. Are you saying that the cooling of the stratosphere is responsible for the AMO? Is that just a signal reflecting the changes over the last 10 years? I think it is all important but it is a question of scale... is the cooling of the northern pole in the stratosphere a reflection of something else.. the warming of the earth perhaps? this might deserve a different thread. I just couldn't follow what you were proposing in that long thread as it was too choppy and didn't seem to make a lot of sense.. perhaps it just flew over my head!

The January SW was an interesting event. The cold signal was much delayed from average and it really didn't end up being that cold in general. Something prevented it from really being a significant weather player... though it certainly contributed to the east coast snowstorm in mid Feb. The SW was followed by a strong cooling aloft which coincided with the westerlies dropping to 30 mb and below in the QBO belt. I certainly looked like they were related at least. I think this has been the strongest E QBO phase ever recorded in the way that CPC defines it. In a hypothetical way.. how do you think the transition to west phase will affect the summer pattern and/or hurricanes? I'll just pick up little tidbits of what you are saying along the way.. it is an area in need of more study. I find it fascinating that the strong stratospheric cooling.. and associated cool temps aloft plus easterly wind anomalies.. never worked their way into the troposphere like they typical do or have just recently done so:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... o.cdas.gif

[Jim Hughes]

Again I guess I miss the point. Are you saying that the cooling of the stratosphere is responsible for the AMO? Is that just a signal reflecting the changes over the last 10 years? I think it is all important but it is a question of scale... is the cooling of the northern pole in the stratosphere a reflection of something else.. the warming of the earth perhaps? this might deserve a different thread. I just couldn't follow what you were proposing in that long thread as it was too choppy and didn't seem to make a lot of sense.. perhaps it just flew over my head!

The January SW was an interesting event. The cold signal was much delayed from average and it really didn't end up being that cold in general. Something prevented it from really being a significant weather player... though it certainly contributed to the east coast snowstorm in mid Feb. The SW was followed by a strong cooling aloft which coincided with the westerlies dropping to 30 mb and below in the QBO belt. I certainly looked like they were related at least. I think this has been the strongest E QBO phase ever recorded in the way that CPC defines it. In a hypothetical way.. how do you think the transition to west phase will affect the summer pattern and/or hurricanes? I'll just pick up little tidbits of what you are saying along the way.. it is an area in need of more study. I find it fascinating that the strong stratospheric cooling.. and associated cool temps aloft plus easterly wind anomalies.. never worked their way into the troposphere like they typical do or have just recently done so:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... o.cdas.gif

I am not sure which came first Benny. It's the chicken and the egg arguement. I had some similar talks with x-y-no last fall. You can see that the timing of the final warmings in the stratosphere had changed in sinc with the past few AMO cycles.

Wintertime storm patterns also changed. This was related to how many strong low pressure systems were seen. (I forget the exact pressure reading at the moment.)

I do not think that the tropospheric effects of the January SW were late by any means. I have been monitoring this relationship for about a decade now. I specifically wrote about an approximate 3 week lag. February was much cooler than January. Plus we probably have to consider what was possibly causing the January warmup. So it may have leveled off the SW effect.

Yes the strength of the 30 mb eastern QBO was quite amazing. It's weakening during March was just as impressive as it's peak though. I think the recent changeover from east to west may have broken this east coast dry pattern a little but I have to wonder how long it will last.

As far as the summer goes. I am going to post a forecast soon. I am leaning towards a warmer summer for the Baltimore - Washington area. June and July look to be the warmer months, anomaly wise.

A tropics forecast is a little tough right now. I strongly believe in the space weather connection. Especially with the extremely strong storms. I will be very surprised if another Cat five develops this year. Of course I could be wrong about the space weather activity for this upcoming summer. I know I was last summer.



Jim

[benny]

thanks jim.. interesting thoughts for sure.