Accu-weather: NE US and Upper TX Coast a Target

[benny]

I sure won't. I didn't even evacuate for Rita. But I was prepared But I do know alot of people who left for Rita that will not leave again.

Unfortunately this is EXACTLY what a lot of New Orleans' metro area folks were saying after the Ivan fiasco about 2 years ago... wanna take odds on how many regret their decision to stay?

A2K

There is a saying that 4 out of 5 times you evacuate it will be for naught.. you could have stayed without experiencing the worst of it. However (and I stress I don't know if that is right or not)... would you really take that 20% chance??!??!

[Audrey2Katrina]

There is a saying that 4 out of 5 times you evacuate it will be for naught.. you could have stayed without experiencing the worst of it. However (and I stress I don't know if that is right or not)... would you really take that 20% chance??!??!

I certainly wouldn't--didn't this time. My point is that some 1,200 plus in the New Orleans area alone decided to stay--and are no longer with us. I'd be willing to wager more than a few of those were in the Ivan exodus last year--I well recall all the people en-route back saying they just aren't going to go through that again. Some made that decision this time, and lived--only long enough to regret it.

A2K

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just so that everyone out there (who has not been directly affected by a hurricane over the last 2 years..examples include MOST Texans and those in the NE U.S.) knows; this is what to expect from different storm strengths:

Weak Tropical Storm force wind (39-45mph sustained, gusts below 58mph): Little to no damage. A few limbs down, loose items may be blown by wind.

Moderate Tropical Storm force wind (45-55 sustained, gusts to 74mph):
http://www.apeshot.com/rita/hor/rita-friday-021.jpg
http://www.obkom.com/americas/usa/disas ... ept-24.jpg
http://meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/strike/t ... cphoto.gif

Strong Tropical Storm Force wind (56-73mph sustained, gusts to 90mph):
http://www.harkphoto.com/isabeldam3.jpg
http://www.wunderground.com/data/wximag ... pic/28.jpg

Cat. 1 Force wind (74-95mph sustained, gusts to 120mph):
http://www.youdontsay.org/Wilma10.jpg
http://i.pbase.com/v3/15/574615/2/45912 ... ley016.jpg
http://i.pbase.com/v3/15/574615/2/45912 ... ley056.jpg
http://i.pbase.com/v3/15/574615/2/45912 ... ley074.jpg
http://i.pbase.com/v3/15/574615/2/45912 ... ley078.jpg
http://i.pbase.com/v3/15/574615/2/45912 ... ley081.jpg
http://pereiraville.com/slideshows/2004 ... CN4949.jpg
http://pereiraville.com/slideshows/2004 ... CN4859.jpg
http://www.txfb.org/HurricaneRita/rita20.jpg

Cat. 2 Force wind (96-110mph sustained, gusts to 135mph):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/charley/Osc ... Course.jpg
http://www.fsec.ucf.edu/echronicle/arch ... f_0047.jpg
http://www.southfloridaroofing.com/hurr ... amage3.jpg
http://www.hydroonenetworks.com/en/medi ... e_home.jpg

Cat. 3 Force wind (111-130mph sustained, gusts to 150mph):
http://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2005/03/watertowerLG.jpg
http://people.uncw.edu/gambled/frances/DIXON8.jpg
http://www.polyfoam.cc/images/CharleyMortar-Lg.jpg <<This shot may be more toward Cat. 4 strength.

Cat. 4 Force Wind (131-155mph sustained, gusts to 180mph):
http://www.parrinspections.com/graphics ... _Erwin.jpg
http://www.floridatoday.com/galleries/n ... ath/12.jpg
http://www.floridadisaster.org/eoc/eoc_ ... 0Gorda.jpg
http://www.vastormphoto.com/charley/charley23.jpg

Cat. 5 Force Wind (156mph+ sustained, gusts to 181mph+):
http://flare.creighton.edu/martinelli/a ... andrew.jpg (Just a rough idea..this is from Hurricane Andrew and there is no way to know FOR SURE that this was taken within the Cat. 5 force wind area...but it looks like it probably was.)

**These wind damage pictures are just rough ideas of the damage you can expect if you encounter these different wind speeds. They also only reflect wind damages, and do not take into account possible surge damage.**

[jasons2k]

EWG great post and reminder.

IMO it's just not worth it.

[skysummit]

There's something really strange about that Cat 5 Andrew pic above. That entire subdivision is obliterated!!!! BUT....how the hell did that mobile home at the lower right survive?

[wxmann_91]

There's something really strange about that Cat 5 Andrew pic above. That entire subdivision is obliterated!!!! BUT....how the hell did that mobile home at the lower right survive?

Subvortices in the eyewall, just like in a tornado. Good show on the National Geographic Channel with the DOW team documenting subvortices in Frances' eyewall.

[MGC]

Camille killed more people in 2005 than in 1969 here in Mississippi. I expect a similar situation in Texas if a major hurricanes makes landfall there in the next few years. People will remember the evacuation for Rita and have second thoughts. Many will think that the hurricane like Rita will not hit here. Many will think the hurricane will weaken like Rita. Many will think my area has never flooded before. Many will be wrong, dead wrong......MGC

[Audrey2Katrina]

Camille killed more people in 2005 than in 1969 here in Mississippi. I expect a similar situation in Texas if a major hurricanes makes landfall there in the next few years. People will remember the evacuation for Rita and have second thoughts. Many will think that the hurricane like Rita will not hit here. Many will think the hurricane will weaken like Rita. Many will think my area has never flooded before. Many will be wrong, dead wrong......MGC

Very well put, and I concur with your conclusion--frightening as it is.

A2K

[wxmann_91]

Camille killed more people in 2005 than in 1969 here in Mississippi. I expect a similar situation in Texas if a major hurricanes makes landfall there in the next few years. People will remember the evacuation for Rita and have second thoughts. Many will think that the hurricane like Rita will not hit here. Many will think the hurricane will weaken like Rita. Many will think my area has never flooded before. Many will be wrong, dead wrong......MGC

~150 deaths were attributed to Camille along the MGC. So, now, 238 deaths for Katrina. Were there really over 150 people who lived through Camille who died in Katrina? IMO maybe 100, 150 tops, that's about or less, probably not more.

About Texans not evacuating, that could very well be true. But I've also heard they would've evacuated no matter what since the Galveston Hurricane memories are still fresh in their minds.

My .02

[Extremeweatherguy]

There's something really strange about that Cat 5 Andrew pic above. That entire subdivision is obliterated!!!! BUT....how the hell did that mobile home at the lower right survive?

crazy isn't it! If I were that guy I would feel VERY lucky. Imagine what it would be like to be sitting in your perfectly intact home and look out and see that everything around you is gone.

[Audrey2Katrina]

~150 deaths were attributed to Camille along the MGC. So, now, 238 deaths for Katrina. Were there really over 150 people who lived through Camille who died in Katrina? IMO maybe 100, 150 tops, that's about or less, probably not more.

I believe MGC was talking allegorically, or figuratively inasmuch as that in an indirect way, Camille and her lesser impact as a 5 than Katrina's as a 3, was possibly indirectly responsible for many people who should have left, who did not; hence a much higher death toll. Of course perhaps your conclusion is right and I'm completely off-base; but that's what I read in it.

A2K

[wxmann_91]

~150 deaths were attributed to Camille along the MGC. So, now, 238 deaths for Katrina. Were there really over 150 people who lived through Camille who died in Katrina? IMO maybe 100, 150 tops, that's about or less, probably not more.

I believe MGC was talking allegorically, or figuratively inasmuch as that in an indirect way, Camille and her lesser impact as a 5 than Katrina's as a 3, was possibly indirectly responsible for many people who should have left, who did not; hence a much higher death toll. Of course perhaps your conclusion is right and I'm completely off-base; but that's what I read in it.

A2K

True, I definitely concur that there were people who died thinking it wouldn't be bad. But I wonder if there were any people who lived through Camille and it was bad enough that they didn't stay for Katrina (and that decision saved their lives)?

Human psychology is an interesting thing...

BTW sorry if my tone sounded harsh in the last post...

[Roxy]

I sure won't. I didn't even evacuate for Rita. But I was prepared But I do know alot of people who left for Rita that will not leave again.

Unfortunately this is EXACTLY what a lot of New Orleans' metro area folks were saying after the Ivan fiasco about 2 years ago... wanna take odds on how many regret their decision to stay?

A2K

The Houston area isn't New Orleans though, you have to remember that.

Unless a 5 is headed straight for us, I am not leaving...and if I do it won't be until the last minute when the roads are clear and I can coast out of town.

[Audrey2Katrina]

True, I definitely concur that there were people who died thinking it wouldn't be bad. But I wonder if there were any people who lived through Camille and it was bad enough that they didn't stay for Katrina (and that decision saved their lives)?

Human psychology is an interesting thing...

Indeed it is, and flipping it around to see if she might have saved any lives is an interesting twist. My only doubts would be raised in that Camille was nearly 40 years ago, and most folks who would have remembered that monster would have had little influence on the later/newer arrivals, just as one has a hard time convincing today's cheerleaders how deadly these storms can be. But I don't doubt there WERE some Camille vets who left and were possibly saved--and there were a few Camille survivors interviewed on TV who admitted that they stayed thinking it could "never" be as bad as Camille--wrong!

BTW, nothin harsh detected in your tone at all--maybe just my day for missing the points.

A2K

[Roxy]

True, I definitely concur that there were people who died thinking it wouldn't be bad. But I wonder if there were any people who lived through Camille and it was bad enough that they didn't stay for Katrina (and that decision saved their lives)?

Human psychology is an interesting thing...

Indeed it is, and flipping it around to see if she might have saved any lives is an interesting twist. My only doubts would be raised in that Camille was nearly 40 years ago, and most folks who would have remembered that monster would have had little influence on the later/newer arrivals, just as one has a hard time convincing today's cheerleaders how deadly these storms can be. But I don't doubt there WERE some Camille vets who left and were possibly saved--and there were a few Camille survivors interviewed on TV who admitted that they stayed thinking it could "never" be as bad as Camille--wrong!

BTW, nothin harsh detected in your tone at all--maybe just my day for missing the points.

A2K

Remember the few days before the storm, they were interviewing people on Burbon street who said, we lived through Camille, it'll be fine.

[Audrey2Katrina]

The Houston area isn't New Orleans though, you have to remember that.

Well having lived here, and been to Houston dozens of times, I'm only too acutely aware of that. And at least I, for one, was not drawing an analogy between the two cities regarding their ultimate fate--for one thing there would never be the level of flooding--that wasn't my point at all. But you get enough people staying in a metro area of something over 3 million people sticking around to ride out a fast moving high end 4, possibly 5 (because of their bad experience with the Rita evac etc.) and you have a potentially equal death toll and SOME areas along the bay edges could/would get flooding--the damage would be enormous and, I dunno, I just think they'd wish they had evacuated after the fact. Hindsight is always 20-20. But as another has pointed out earlier, most of the times you'll have evacuated for something you needn't have--but it's like playing a game of Russian roullette, sooner or later, you're going to be faced with the wrong chamber.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Remember the few days before the storm, they were interviewing people on Burbon street who said, we lived through Camille, it'll be fine.

Yup, I remember that well--and heard likewise from a lot of those in areas like Lakeview that had never flooded before--their number was up, and they didn't even realize it. I guess I'm hoping that this never happens to a city the size of Houston; but human nature being what it is... ya never really know.

A2K

[skysummit]

Another thing about have a city of 3 million people with most staying is the weeks afterwards. What if the power is out for weeks at a time? You'll have TONS of people who are not used to it, TONS of people who didn't have enough, or the proper supplies to survive, and therefore, most likely TONS of incidents of crime.

[Roxy]

The Houston area isn't New Orleans though, you have to remember that.

Well having lived here, and been to Houston dozens of times, I'm only too acutely aware of that. And at least I, for one, was not drawing an analogy between the two cities regarding their ultimate fate--for one thing there would never be the level of flooding--that wasn't my point at all. But you get enough people staying in a metro area of something over 3 million people sticking around to ride out a fast moving high end 4, possibly 5 (because of their bad experience with the Rita evac etc.) and you have a potentially equal death toll and SOME areas along the bay edges could/would get flooding--the damage would be enormous and, I dunno, I just think they'd wish they had evacuated after the fact. Hindsight is always 20-20. But as another has pointed out earlier, most of the times you'll have evacuated for something you needn't have--but it's like playing a game of Russian roullette, sooner or later, you're going to be faced with the wrong chamber.

A2K

There's no doubt about that. It's a crap shoot and all you can do is weigh your options and make the best decision you can for you and your family....then pray.

[Roxy]

Another thing about have a city of 3 million people with most staying is the weeks afterwards. What if the power is out for weeks at a time? You'll have TONS of people who are not used to it, TONS of people who didn't have enough, or the proper supplies to survive, and therefore, most likely TONS of incidents of crime.

That's why you keep extra ammo in your supply kit.

I guess I had never really thought it through, but in most cases is it possible to leave after the storm? I had always figured if you gassed the car before the storm, and could drive it then you could find a way out afterwards. I suppose it depends on the damage though.