Strong High Pressure To Park Over Midwest This Summer

[canegrl04]

As reported by AccuWeatherThey are saying it could make for a Dust Bowl 2 .What impact would this have on the tropics?

[CHRISTY]

it could have huge implications.....but this is a wait see situation as we are atleast 3 -4 months away from the heart of the season,but then again after 2005 anythings possible.

[Coredesat]

As reported by AccuWeather

Keep that in mind - any drought may be bad, but more than likely, it's not going to be THAT bad.

[Aslkahuna]

It could work two ways-if the High is bridged across from the Bermuda cell then storms would tend to track westerly all of the way across the ATL Basin increasing the risk for the Islands, Central America, lower GOM, and south FL. If the high becomes a separate entity then there will be a trough over the Eastern US and recurving storms will be in abundance which would increase the risk to the Carolinas and Outer Banks but not necessarily further northward. The pattern they are calling for sounds a lot like 1988 which would be great for SE AZ because we had a long (June-October) monsoon and a very wet one.

Steve

[canegrl04]

Thanks for the info guys.They are predicting temps to set records in places like Kansas. I was wondering mainly how it would affect cane tracking

[CHRISTY]

It could work two ways-if the High is bridged across from the Bermuda cell then storms would tend to track westerly all of the way across the ATL Basin increasing the risk for the Islands, Central America, lower GOM, and south FL. If the high becomes a separate entity then there will be a trough over the Eastern US and recurving storms will be in abundance which would increase the risk to the Carolinas and Outer Banks but not necessarily further northward. The pattern they are calling for sounds a lot like 1988 which would be great for SE AZ because we had a long (June-October) monsoon and a very wet one.

Steve

yep for sure and thats something were not gonna fing out for a while....

[CHRISTY]

Heres the original story:

http://www.2.ljworld.com/news/2006/apr/ ... hold_water

please post that link again...doesn't work thanks

[canegrl04]

I can't seem to access it by posting direct link,but I got it from here : http://www.rawstory.com Its on the far right column "Summer Doesn't Hold Water

[benny]

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2006/apr/1 ... old_water/

[benny]

I like the double meaning headline. Well some memorable La Nina years have been quite hot... 1988, 1998 to say the least... the soil moisture anomalies are a little scary if there isn't more rain by the beginning of summer..

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2006/apr/18/summer_forecast_doesnt_hold_water/

What are your thoughts on that article benny?

Also here is the summer forcast brought to you by accuweather.
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promo-ad.as ... age=summer

[CHRISTY]

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2006/apr/18/summer_forecast_doesnt_hold_water/

What are your thoughts on that article benny?

Also here is the summer forcast brought to you by accuweather.
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promo-ad.as ... age=summer

well to me southfloridawx the strong ridge thats been hanging around southeast all year so far might stick around a big chunk of 2006!but then again its a wait and see situation to me.

[benny]

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2006/apr/18/summer_forecast_doesnt_hold_water/

What are your thoughts on that article benny?

Also here is the summer forcast brought to you by accuweather.
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promo-ad.as ... age=summer

I think his forecast looks a lot like a moderate La Nina composite:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... web.ppt#37

I really have no reason to disagree with Accuweather here... given the lack of soil moisture and neutral/la nina almost a certainty... hot in the central plains seems likely. I will say that the NE USA has been very dry as well... in fact most of the east was quite dry in March. I think several states had their driest Marchs ever. Usually though most of the massive ridging is early in the year anyway... August and beforehand.. when most of the hurricanes aren't typically around. I'd love to know what the pattern for ASO is going to be..

[wxmann_91]

I don't know, but IMO there will be a heat ridge over the Plains this summer, like the ones in 1980 and 1988. A major Caribbean storm is likely IMO, but the U.S. landfall chances could be decreased.

Notice that I'm not a pro met and I am most often wrong. But this is just my thinking.

[boca]

If theirs a massive ridge in the plains that would be good for the SE because their would be a trough along the East coast unless the high bridges with the bermuda high.

[MGC]

The summer of 1980. Now that was a hot one indeed. I also recall Hurricane Allen and its rampage through the Carribean and into S Texas. Allen was the first hurricane in my lifetime that broke the 900mb barrier.....MGC

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2006/apr/18/summer_forecast_doesnt_hold_water/

What are your thoughts on that article benny?

Also here is the summer forcast brought to you by accuweather.
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promo-ad.as ... age=summer

I think his forecast looks a lot like a moderate La Nina composite:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... web.ppt#37

I really have no reason to disagree with Accuweather here... given the lack of soil moisture and neutral/la nina almost a certainty... hot in the central plains seems likely. I will say that the NE USA has been very dry as well... in fact most of the east was quite dry in March. I think several states had their driest Marchs ever. Usually though most of the massive ridging is early in the year anyway... August and beforehand.. when most of the hurricanes aren't typically around. I'd love to know what the pattern for ASO is going to be..

Looking at that forecast along with the powerpoint that we may be in for a weak to moderate la nina for the summer months. It would be quite interesting to see if we get a resurgence of la nina in the next few weeks.
I also am not a pro met and I am just learning.

[terstorm1012]

FYI that drought started 10 years ago.

Looks like a long, hot, dry summer......ugh!

[gatorcane]

way too early to tell what the high pressure will do.

[rainstorm]

It could work two ways-if the High is bridged across from the Bermuda cell then storms would tend to track westerly all of the way across the ATL Basin increasing the risk for the Islands, Central America, lower GOM, and south FL. If the high becomes a separate entity then there will be a trough over the Eastern US and recurving storms will be in abundance which would increase the risk to the Carolinas and Outer Banks but not necessarily further northward. The pattern they are calling for sounds a lot like 1988 which would be great for SE AZ because we had a long (June-October) monsoon and a very wet one.

Steve

based on the accuweather map i would think a huge high over the central states would cause a nw flow over the east coast with an offshore trough steering canes well out to sea. 1988 had no cane activity on or near the east coast