TalkinTropics: Global Warming + Hurricanes = ?

[MWatkins]

Are they linked? We'll discuss that.

I have received more email on both sides of this issue during the last 5 days than I have in the previous 6 months on any issue.

Since this is topical and apparently something people want to discuss, we are going to have a special TalkinTropics this Wednesday at 9PM EDT.

I have conducted in-depth analysis of the study from Judith Curry et al from Georgia Tech and UCAR (released last fall) as well as many of the cross-referenced materials, and I will host a discussion as to whether that paticular study (and others), which has been the basis for a significant amount of material on the subject (including her "debate" with Dr Gray last week).

We also have exclusive, never before aired audio from Dr Chris Landsea and Philip Klotzbach on the topic acquired last week at the conference and we are working on booking additional guests during the two nights.

Part one is Wednesday at 9PM, part 2 will stream at our normal time at 9PM on Thursday...and trust me we won't have enough time to go through everything.

See you Wednesday and Thursday and phones will be open both nights.

http://www.ipr365.net

Thanks again for listening in.

MW

[wxwatcher91]

That's awesome! I actually have been doing a paper for English (any topic we wanted ) on Global warming vs hurricane activity. And also the national Envirothon competition is focused around that this year too. A lot of it has popped up since last hurricane season

[KWT]

Could you put up the link to the recorded show when its done please, as i'm over in the Uk and can't really stay up to something like 4-5am!!!

[HURAKAN]

That's awesome! I actually have been doing a paper for English (any topic we wanted ) on Global warming vs hurricane activity. And also the national Envirothon competition is focused around that this year too. A lot of it has popped up since last hurricane season

I'm doing the same for my English class in FIU. Trying to demonstrate the possible effects of global warming in hurricane activity.

[SouthFloridawx]

That's awesome! I actually have been doing a paper for English (any topic we wanted ) on Global warming vs hurricane activity. And also the national Envirothon competition is focused around that this year too. A lot of it has popped up since last hurricane season

I'm doing the same for my English class in FIU. Trying to demonstrate the possible effects of global warming in hurricane activity.

This topic is quite popular now adays. I think indirectly global warming whether cause by humans or cycles in the earth could have an affect on hurricanes by modifying the earth's temperatures thus modifying the affects of weather here on the planet. I'm not sure to what extent this could be but, we don't have a huge amount of data to prove either case. Anway have fun on your projects and let us know what you came up with.

[Jim Cantore]

I'll be there, both nights

[WeatherEmperor]

That's awesome! I actually have been doing a paper for English (any topic we wanted ) on Global warming vs hurricane activity. And also the national Envirothon competition is focused around that this year too. A lot of it has popped up since last hurricane season

I'm doing the same for my English class in FIU. Trying to demonstrate the possible effects of global warming in hurricane activity.

Good job Sandy. maybe Ill stop by your class just to listen to you speak. Dont know if final exam schedule will permit though.....

<RICKY>

[P.K.]

Could you put up the link to the recorded show when its done please, as i'm over in the Uk and can't really stay up to something like 4-5am!!!

If you get a chance to listen live sometime over the summer don't be surprised if it gets light before they finish.

(Yes that happened to me a few times last year )

[wxwatcher91]

That's awesome! I actually have been doing a paper for English (any topic we wanted ) on Global warming vs hurricane activity. And also the national Envirothon competition is focused around that this year too. A lot of it has popped up since last hurricane season

I'm doing the same for my English class in FIU. Trying to demonstrate the possible effects of global warming in hurricane activity.

This topic is quite popular now adays. I think indirectly global warming whether cause by humans or cycles in the earth could have an affect on hurricanes by modifying the earth's temperatures thus modifying the affects of weather here on the planet. I'm not sure to what extent this could be but, we don't have a huge amount of data to prove either case. Anway have fun on your projects and let us know what you came up with.

Exactly my opinion. I think that global warming (man-made or just a cycle) is affecting the hurricane season. there is not much else I can point at. I also brought up the element of chance. chance is what steers a hurricane over a square mile of 32C SSTs.

[x-y-no]

I'm going to try and be there for the Wednesday show at least.

Looking forward to the discussion, Mike.

Jan

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't think global warming has to do with the recent increase, and here is why:

-We have had MANY active decades of storm activity in the past.

-In the past we were not able to see ALL of the storms that formed, thus we do not know FOR SURE that this last season was actually the busiest.

-We have natural cycles!!! Not everything that goes on is global warming!

-Storms get more media coverage now than in the past, this makes it seem like every storm is suddenly a horrible storm, but once again...in the past the storms could have been just as bad, but without radar, airplanes and satellites we would never know.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree. Global Warming does not lead to more hurricanes. It might however fuel those that do occur by:


a) Increasing the amount of heat, and thus, energy that can be sucked up from the Sea.


b)Increasing the height of the Troposphere between and Equator and especially at the Poles, and thus give hurricanes more room to basically grow.

[x-y-no]

I don't think global warming has to do with the recent increase, and here is why:

-We have had MANY active decades of storm activity in the past.

-In the past we were not able to see ALL of the storms that formed, thus we do not know FOR SURE that this last season was actually the busiest.

-We have natural cycles!!! Not everything that goes on is global warming!

-Storms get more media coverage now than in the past, this makes it seem like every storm is suddenly a horrible storm, but once again...in the past the storms could have been just as bad, but without radar, airplanes and satellites we would never know.

There certainly is some validity to these objections, but I fail to see how you can get to as strong a conclusion as you do on this basis alone. There are, after all, some good reasons to think that AGW would enhance several of the factors which contribute to cyclogenesis and to storm intensity. So all other things being equal, the conclusion that AGW would increase both frequency and intensity of tropical systems is a natural one.

The big difficulty, of course, is that it's rather unlikely that all other things really are equal. It seems very likely to me that a warmer world would imply some difference in distribution and intensity of wind shear, for example. But what that difference might be, nobody has any skill in predicting as far as I'm aware. So that might be a mitigating factor, or it might be an enhancing one. The same argument would apply with regard to distribution of dry air in the mid and upper layers, and so on.

[Aquawind]

Alright.. THis is a show announcement and NOT the thread to start the Debate on.. Listen in to the show or call in during the show please.. 800-580-4794

[Scorpion]

Why is friendly debate not allowed?

[Aquawind]

It was not the intent of the post to start the big debate on THIS thread.. pick another of many GW threads to join in.. Threads get hijacked and this subject could do that to any thread.. Let's keep to the subject on every thread.

[x-y-no]

It was not the intent of the post to start the big debate on THIS thread.. pick another of many GW threads to join in.. Threads get hijacked and this subject could do that to any thread.. Let's keep to the subject on every thread.

Sorry, Paul ...

(Jan looks ashamed)

[Aquawind]

(Jan looks ashamed)

[Terrell]

I think the truth of the matter, whether or not global warming is causing more intense hurricanes, is somewhere between those who are saying it definitely is the cause and those who say it's just a cycle nothing more.

Global warming is likely one factor among many rather than either the deciding factor, or no factor at all.

[MWatkins]

I'm going to try and be there for the Wednesday show at least.

Looking forward to the discussion, Mike.

Jan

Me too Jan.

I have reread the Kerry Emanual Nature paper as well today and will (hopefully) address that tomorrow night too.

He makes a very compelling argument, but there is a methodology piece that I am digging through right now...it may or may not make a difference in the study. I haven't figured that out yet.

Interested to hear your thoughts as well...and hmmm...not to change the subject...but there appears to be an increase in subsurface warming in the Pacific.

MW